aggiegeog Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Next week looks very cold with multiple systems to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 3 hours ago, aggiegeog said: Next week looks very cold with multiple systems to watch. Yes, the region has to watch the very cold air intrusion Tue/Wed which will feature a s/w crossing the area a day afterwards. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 4 hours ago, aggiegeog said: Next week looks very cold with multiple systems to watch. Actually, it's now targeting right at your location (E TX). The good news is we're seeing some agreement across a few models and the event is not that far away. Hope this one hold up its shape! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 And this could be a nice fluffy snow so a .25" liquid could mean 4-6" of snow across the northern half of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 I'd just be thrilled with more than 5 minutes of snow personally, Glad to have something to watch over the weekend, hopefully this one pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, aggiegeog said: And this could be a nice fluffy snow so a .25" liquid could mean 4-6" of snow across the northern half of the state. As long as we avoid the sleet factor, that can kill any good accumulations of snow in events, but a nice fluffy snow will be pretty to see, glad to see some consistency in the models for once too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Chris Robbins is actually mentioning this one on FB, which is promising. He has stayed mum about the previous events. Maybe DFW can get something accumulating, no matter how small. Wish we can just get a tad more moisture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Nice to see something within 5 days with model agreement, finally. But I won't get too excited at this point since the precipitation amount is still in question and that could make a huge difference. Also, we're now in NAM range and I'm not quite seeing much moisture at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 I have a theory that certain events repeat at relatively equal levels of sunlight, so been starting to look for some kind of "Harvey" effect in Spring 2018, since it hit in late August. To me, there are 59-non El Ninos for the 1931-32 to 2016-17 July-June years, if you separate out the ten non-El Nino years in that time-frame when TX was hit by a major hurricane from the remaining 49 years, one of the effects that pops out is a higher than normal chance of a very wet March in the Southwest: >=0.8" in non-El Nino, MH years in ABQ: 3/10 Marches >=0.8" in non-El Nino, other years in ABQ: 4/49 Marches You can say pretty safely that a "very wet" March is more likely in a non-El Nino after a Major Hurricane hits Texas. If you did it for >=1", its 2/10 v. 1/49 - quite literally 10x more likely than usual. https://mathcracker.com/z-test-for-two-proportions.php#results 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 12z CMC, GFS, and ECMWF all hold up well for N TX next Monday night into Tuesday. Not a huge amount of precip after the cold front. But I think it's not very uncommon for models to under estimate the progression of the cold air in this kind of setup, in which case we may end up with more/earlier frozen precip than expected. Correct me if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 19 minutes ago, vwgrrc said: 12z CMC, GFS, and ECMWF all hold up well for N TX next Monday night into Tuesday. Not a huge amount of precip after the cold front. But I think it's not very uncommon for models to under estimate the progression of the cold air in this kind of setup, in which case we may end up with more/earlier frozen precip than expected. Correct me if I'm wrong. DFW likely gets the front close to midday with rain going to snow during the early afternoon and lasting through the evening though amounts look to be light. I am thinking a dusting to localized couple inches with the most on the east side of DFW. For the Tyler area I expect the front early afternoon with rain changing to sleet/freezing rain by late afternoon and to snow by evening lasting into Tuesday morning maybe. Areas between I-20 and I -30 in E TX could see 1-3". In Deep E TX I think the front comes through during the evening Monday with rain going to freezing rain and sleet by late evening and changing to snow by Tuesday morning, down here snow will likely be less than an inch but icing could be an issue. For northern SE TX and the Brazos Valley I would give a similar forecast. I do think there is potential that models are currently underestimating moisture return so amounts are more likely to increase than decrease over eastern TX. I am not a good source for Central Texas, but you could likely extrapolate my above forecasts to include areas of Central Texas. In short, yes I do think that the front will arrive earlier and a tad colder than forecast. Also moisture could end up deeper than modeled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 8 hours ago, aggiegeog said: DFW likely gets the front close to midday with rain going to snow during the early afternoon and lasting through the evening though amounts look to be light. I am thinking a dusting to localized couple inches with the most on the east side of DFW. For the Tyler area I expect the front early afternoon with rain changing to sleet/freezing rain by late afternoon and to snow by evening lasting into Tuesday morning maybe. Areas between I-20 and I -30 in E TX could see 1-3". In Deep E TX I think the front comes through during the evening Monday with rain going to freezing rain and sleet by late evening and changing to snow by Tuesday morning, down here snow will likely be less than an inch but icing could be an issue. For northern SE TX and the Brazos Valley I would give a similar forecast. I do think there is potential that models are currently underestimating moisture return so amounts are more likely to increase than decrease over eastern TX. I am not a good source for Central Texas, but you could likely extrapolate my above forecasts to include areas of Central Texas. In short, yes I do think that the front will arrive earlier and a tad colder than forecast. Also moisture could end up deeper than modeled. You're right. Both 6z and 12z indicate more moisture that yesterday and NWS suggests in the AM discussion the cold air may move in quicker. It looks like we're finally onto some real winter weather this time. One thing I don't understand is why NAM is still showing virtually nothing for NTX when other models are so consistent with good agreement. I thought NAM is a good model for wintry events like this. But I'm not met... could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 26 minutes ago, vwgrrc said: You're right. Both 6z and 12z indicate more moisture that yesterday and NWS suggests in the AM discussion the cold air may move in quicker. It looks like we're finally onto some real winter weather this time. One thing I don't understand is why NAM is still showing virtually nothing for NTX when other models are so consistent with good agreement. I thought NAM is a good model for wintry events like this. But I'm not met... could be wrong. Different models have their strong suits. This event is a larger scale event so the globals seem to have it under control. I am hoping the NAM will begin helping to nail down the sweet spots latwr today and esp tomorrow. Also very interested in what the RGEM shows starting tomorrow it seems to do well with larger scale events at short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Euro moves decent QPF way east. Still some details to work out as to how much of TX will get this, but something is at least happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 13, 2018 Author Share Posted January 13, 2018 23 minutes ago, Roy said: Euro moves decent QPF way east. Models are latching on Canadian's idea of a weak s/w spinning off the W Coast trough into NW MX. That helps to moisten up the STJ and allows the cold to come a bit farther south Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Chris Robbins on FB mentioning mostly sleet to snow, fairly light, but enough to cause hazardous roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, Roy said: Chris Robbins on FB mentioning mostly sleet to snow, fairly light, but enough to cause hazardous roads. And 18z GFS seems backing off the moisture and moved the system a bit south. Not a very good sign... Meanwhile, the second system is getting more interesting. Lots of ice for NTX and it has been that way for a few runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 This event is a 1 to localize 3 inch snow event along I20. All we need is a general .1" of liquid or even less with temps in the teens and no significant warm nose this far north. And i am betting the late week system comes in much colder aloft and at the surface those details with begin to be seen by Monday at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Travel is looking rough for much of the state for the majority of this week. Starting tomorrow evening north of I-20 and down to I-10 by late Tuesday. Along the I-20 corridor expect mainly snow with general amounts of 1-3". For Central and Deep E TX into northern SE TX this is more of a sleet event with some freezing rain, in this area we are looking at around .5" of sleet and freezing rain accumulations. Along I-10 looking at a mix, likely primarily a elevated surface issue with maybe some sleet accumulating on grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Am concerned DFW may get shafted again with any accumulation South. Hope NAM is wrong. I am glad the TH event looks dead. Have a yearbook work day. But, at least want 1/2 inch Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 47 minutes ago, Roy said: Am concerned DFW may get shafted again with any accumulation South. Hope NAM is wrong. I am glad the TH event looks dead. Have a yearbook work day. But, at least want 1/2 inch Monday night. Same here. 12z NAM showing nothing for DFW. GFS also backed off the moisture a bit. But CMC is still going strong with 2-3" on the east side of the metro. Kinda of hard to believe the difference considering we're only 36 hours away from the event. Wish the European could bring back some confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Didn't someone once joke on here that whatever model is showing the least wintry precip for DFW is gonna be the correct one? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 WWA out for up to 1/2 inch. Will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 50 minutes ago, Roy said: WWA out for up to 1/2 inch. Will see. NWS is very conservative on the amount in their PM discussion. They basically said little to nothing for DFW and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, vwgrrc said: NWS is very conservative on the amount in their PM discussion. They basically said little to nothing for DFW and north. Which will probably end up verifying... Watch this is a winter where Austin and college station end up with 10" of snow while dfw may have 1/2" lol... I feel like I'm back in Southern Illinois and get snow shafted all the time there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 11 minutes ago, jhamps10 said: Which will probably end up verifying... Watch this is a winter where Austin and college station end up with 10" of snow while dfw may have 1/2" lol... I feel like I'm back in Southern Illinois and get snow shafted all the time there Guess you're right. 18z GFS and ICON basically confirmed their thought. Things are shifting to south. DFW may see "flurries" at best, again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Frustrating. But, still hope as we get closer to nowcasting. But, I’m planning on no delays on Tuesday for my school probably. It seems more often than not there is a shift a day before an event either good or bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 At the rate this season is going DFW will be lucky to even see 1/2 inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, Roy said: Frustrating. But, still hope as we get closer to nowcasting. But, I’m planning on no delays on Tuesday for my school probably. That's probably a good plan.. I blame it on the media hype up lol.. I do hope nowcasting changes things though for sure.. the trends right now aren't promising though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, jhamps10 said: That's probably a good plan.. I blame it on the media hype up lol.. I do hope nowcasting changes things though for sure.. the trends right now aren't promising though The media is still hyping it up. Just got a push notification from WFAA about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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