Roy Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Up north Wichita is upping snow amounts for their area. Hopefully good omens for a chance of more than just a flurry or two tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 29 minutes ago, Roy said: Up north Wichita is upping snow amounts for their area. Hopefully good omens for a chance of more than just a flurry or two tomorrow. I see 0z NAM (3km) upped the snow amount quiet a bit for the metro. 3" at some location... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 I wonder if someone out between Denton and Gainesville gets gets close to half a foot from a convective band tomorrow afternoon. General totals for North Texas look to be a dusting to an inch. Wish it could make it to E TX but not looking likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 hours ago, aggiegeog said: I wonder if someone out between Denton and Gainesville gets under a band and gets close to half a foot or of a convective band tomorrow afternoon. Hebrews totals for North Texas look to be a dusting to an inch. Wish it could make it to E TX but not looking likely. Would really love for some accumulations locally in DFW. The past couple winters have been pretty sad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Model trends for today aren't great. NAM is backing off. Will have to see. In any case, some mood flurries at least are likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 16 minutes ago, Roy said: Model trends for today aren't great. NAM is backing off. Will have to see. In any case, some mood flurries at least are likely. just in time for the news to hype it up lol... I had a huge chuckle watching the news at 10 when the news reporters on 5 said the word winter storm... I do want to see some decent snow however... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Most likely today will be flurries to a dusting though past history of this type setup overproducing cannot be fully discounted even with a lack of model support. A very tricky forecast for the Decatur area especially today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Back north my home turf got upgraded to a winter storm warning in KS, so fingers crossed. They have been in a major snow drought as well, but finally my dad will get to use his snowblower for the first time in years. I think our stuff is coming from the west. Hopefully it is a bit stronger than progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, Roy said: Back north my home turf got upgraded to a winter storm warning in KS, so fingers crossed. They have been in a major snow drought as well, but finally my dad will get to use his snowblower for the first time in years. I think our stuff is coming from the west. Hopefully it is a bit stronger than progged. There is more precip in W TX than was modeled so that is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 35 minutes ago, Roy said: Back north my home turf got upgraded to a winter storm warning in KS, so fingers crossed. They have been in a major snow drought as well, but finally my dad will get to use his snowblower for the first time in years. I think our stuff is coming from the west. Hopefully it is a bit stronger than progged. I believe the energy is coming from the west, but not the precip.. but I'm not 100% certain myself to be bluntly honest. The radar shows the precip in West TX moving southeast instead of east.. it'll be watch and wait.. Still feels weird to think it's in the 50's or even near 60, and it be snowing this afternoon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Hard not to turn into a total weenie on a day like this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 12z NAM backed off big time... Ummmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Snow reported in Abilene and raining all morning in the Permian Basin. My thoughts have not changed though the snow may be more widespread than previously thought per trends this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Our snow band is developing currently just east of Abilene to WF line. Moderate to heavy snow will briefly fall as this band passes over E and NE TX today into tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 After today's snow all eyes turn to next week. The upper air pattern is a mess, but parsing through the mess I see a southern TX overrunning event early in the week and maybe a real snow event for northern portions of the state late in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, aggiegeog said: After today's snow all eyes turn to next week. The upper air pattern is a mess, but parsing through the mess I see a southern TX overrunning event early in the week and maybe a real snow event for northern portions of the state late in the week. Mind saying where in the state??? cuz what I've been seeing is 60's up towards 70 for late next week at least in DFW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 18 minutes ago, jhamps10 said: Mind saying where in the state??? cuz what I've been seeing is 60's up towards 70 for late next week at least in DFW DFW is right in the target area for this potential event. The warmth will have to at least wait until the 20th and likely later if it ever comes. This event looks to undercut the ridge which was supposed to bring warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Watch out over NE TX, roads could get rough tonight from snow and sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Radar seems to be weakening already. Maybe a dusting? Maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 The E TX activity being more intense than expected may be stealing moisture from this band. I am hoping that NE TX being closer to the surface low results in the band restrengthening east of DFW this evening. Areas south of Tyler got over an inch of rain this afternoon with the storms just ahead of the front. Temps dropping though the 50s and about to reach the 40s here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 hour ago, jhamps10 said: Mind saying where in the state??? cuz what I've been seeing is 60's up towards 70 for late next week at least in DFW He's mainly pointing to the 17-19 period where the warm up you see should come later after that. But honestly I don't think the models can handle that at all at this range. As we speak, 18z looks vastly different. It seems like every run is an outlier! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 17 minutes ago, vwgrrc said: He's mainly pointing to the 17-19 period where the warm up you see should come later after that. But honestly I don't think the models can handle that at all at this range. As we speak, 18z looks vastly different. It seems like every run is an outlier! We are in ensemble range. The op runs will vary wildly run to run for the next 4 or so days as the Pacific mess gets sorted out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 And, NWS drops the winter weather advisory that probably was never needed anyway.... Love how everyone gets hyped for the threat of ANY snow, and then it's nothing... Ice is 1 thing but snow... lets get crazy when we actually see something more than a 2 mile wide band of snow that is moving less than 30 mph... I may not be a Native Texan but I think we can handle 3 flakes of snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 I can’t even see flurries and I’m under the lift. Nothing. I got more with the flurries we had a week or two ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 The sun is back out here at my office in downtown ft worth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Precip is firing again to my west as expected and temp is 37 and falling. This could be something here, not much but something. That WRF-ARW2 model has done great all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 It's kind of amusing see TX as one of the big winners for precipitation this winter - we're not even remotely close to Nina climatology at this point (40/90 days in). I know here, I should have ~0.63" for Dec 1-Jan 11 using 1951-2010, probably more using 1981-2010, so I'd say -0.5mm/day is about right here. The wet NW idea has absolutely not verified this winter, outside Montana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Both 0z GFS and CMC are shifting the 1st system of next week north by a good margin (now on the south edge of DFW CWA). Hope it's a trend. Plenty of time for things to change still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 I just stepped outside here in Longview, and we're getting sprinkles with mixed in sleet pellets. A decent little shower is about 10 minutes away heading towards me so I might check back to see how interesting it gets. There might be a few frozen car windows to the surprise of some people in the morning. *Edit- Well I stepped outside again but it was still mostly just light rain. There was a bit more ice pellets on my vehicle but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 7 hours ago, raindancewx said: It's kind of amusing see TX as one of the big winners for precipitation this winter - we're not even remotely close to Nina climatology at this point (40/90 days in). I know here, I should have ~0.63" for Dec 1-Jan 11 using 1951-2010, probably more using 1981-2010, so I'd say -0.5mm/day is about right here. The wet NW idea has absolutely not verified this winter, outside Montana. It sure has been an odd winter. It seems like the endless +PNA is finally breaking down so a more typical pattern should emerge at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now