Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 8

[aggiegeog]

Despite what individual op runs show I am becoming very optimistic about the chances for winter precip anytime between Friday and early Jan, likely multiple rounds four areas north of I-20 and maybe a round south of there also. We have a solid -EPO and an active STJ both are set in place for at least the next couple weeks and likely longer.

[vwgrrc]

29 minutes ago, aggiegeog said:

Despite what individual op runs show I am becoming very optimistic about the chances for winter precip anytime between Friday and early Jan, likely multiple rounds four areas north of I-20 and maybe a round south of there also. We have a solid -EPO and an active STJ both are set in place for at least the next couple weeks and likely longer.

You might be right. The latest GFS went crazy for N TX through Jan 3rd. It's just one run at this time, but could be indicating something.

[aggiegeog]

2 hours ago, vwgrrc said:

You might be right. The latest GFS went crazy for N TX through Jan 3rd. It's just one run at this time, but could be indicating something.

Ensembles sure indicate something. Looks like we start the outbreak thus weekend with some marginal wintery threats then unsettled late next week. We will then likely see a big storm to finally kick the Arctic outbreak out around New Years.

[Roy]

I just hope it doesn't keep getting pushed back and back and back....

DFW almost got 3 inches, so we are at least getting a wetter pattern.

[aggiegeog]

The NAM is starting to show what i expect on Friday. A vigorous upper low will cross the state behind the cold front which will generate a surface low over E TX or NW LA. This will lead to a changeover to wintery precip on the backside of the precip. We can also expect some decent rain totals ahead of the changeover. I still see potential for Saturday into Christmas Eve also. We are heading into a very cold and active 2 to 3 weeks.

[aggiegeog]

Chances for a winter weather event are increasing for late Friday into Saturday morning across northern Texas. A lot depends on the track of the SW low. If it stays up along the Red River then likely just a bit of backside flurries. If it passes south of I-20 then rain likely transitions through all precip types starting late Friday.

[DoctorMu]

wxmx may enjoy the latest GFS run.  We've had one 5 inch miracle snow already in CLL this month!

Temps in early Jan get even crazier.  Entertaining run!

 

 

 

[wxmx]

42 minutes ago, DoctorMu said:

wxmx may enjoy the latest GFS run.  We've had one 5 inch miracle snow already in CLL this month!

 

 

Temps in early Jan get even crazier.  Entertaining run!

 

 

 

 

And during my bday to boot ;)....Most probably it will be gone in one of the next few runs. 

[DoctorMu]

2 hours ago, wxmx said:

And during my bday to boot ;)....Most probably it will be gone in one of the next few runs. 

Unfortunately, yes.  

 

Our snowfall disappeared in 24 hours, but what a fabulous 24 hours!  Two miracles in one season are probably too much to hope for.  The models and ensemble do show a prolonged cold snap from the 28th through Jan 5...so opportunity for mischief awaits.

 

 

[raindancewx]

Have to do some more replications, but using the extended data for Nino 1.2, Nino 3.4, and the PDO, can just about replicate winter precipitation for Albuquerque for last year. Harder to do then it looks, not many years with negatives in Nino 3.4 that are positive in Nino 1.2 like last year.

PDO Data: http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.txt (N-A is Nov-Apr PDO value)

Nino 1.2 (1951-2000 base, constant anomalies): https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/nino12.long.anom.data (DJF mean used)

Nino 3.4 (1951-2000 base, constant anomalies): https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/nino34.long.anom.data (DJF mean used)

ABQ	N-A	DJF	DJF	Precip
Year	PDO	3.4	1.2	DJF
1942	0.01	-1.21	-0.01	1.61
1982	0.95	2.33	2.80	2.59
1983	1.45	-0.76	-0.13	0.75
1983	1.45	-0.76	-0.13	0.75
1983	1.45	-0.76	-0.13	0.75
1984	0.75	-1.11	-0.65	2.39
1984	0.75	-1.11	-0.65	2.39
1984	0.75	-1.11	-0.65	2.39
1997	1.24	2.27	3.71	1.80
Mean	0.98	-0.25	0.46	1.71
2016	1.06	-0.29	0.43	1.90

Blend for the current winter would be 1934, 1934, 1954, 1985, 1996, 1996, 2007, assuming +0.25 for the PDO in Nov-Apr, -0.65C for Nino 3.4 in DJF, and -0.80C in Nino 3.4 in DJF. Would imply it gets much wetter at some point, correcting hard toward average. If I'm not cold enough for the PDO, Nino 3.4, or Nino 1.2, would be drier.

 

[aggiegeog]

Per the 18Z NAM anyone in the NW quarter of TX could see snow tomorrow night. The best chance would be in an area bounded by Abilene, Weatherford, Gainesville and Wichita Falls. I could see some flakes into DFW proper, but for accumulations to occur there the system will need to track south of the Red River.

[raindancewx]

I'm rooting for the cold forecast to come into the Northern Plains to fail to some degree. In La Nina years, the December mean high in Bismarck (27 La Ninas from 1930-31 to 2016-17) is 24F. When the high is above 24F in Bismarck in La Nina Decembers, tend to get snow down here in March. Mean high for Dec 1-20 in Bismarck is 42.5F, the models have it falling to the low 30s by the end of the month with highs in the teens and single digits.

 

[gwlee7]

Mainly just popping in to say hello.  Moved to Lewisville from an hour east of Raleigh NC in August so, I spent a lot of time in the SE forum.   Have been enjoying living here although so far the weather has been mostly two types: hot and dry and cold and dry.   Look forward to learning more about North TX weather.  

[aggiegeog]

6 minutes ago, gwlee7 said:

Mainly just popping in to say hello.  Moved to Lewisville from an hour east of Raleigh NC in August so, I spent a lot of time in the SE forum.   Have been enjoying living here although so far the weather has been mostly two types: hot and dry and cold and dry.   Look forward to learning more about North TX weather.  

Happy to have you. There sure are some different dynamics to our winters here than in NC.

[cstrunk]

We received 3-4" of rain the other day here in East Texas. There ended up being a few supercells with tornado warnings and funnel cloud sightings south of I-20. 

We're in line for another similar storm system on Friday with heavy rain and a marginal severe risk in about the same areas. Flash Flood Watches are up with widespread 2"-4" totals with isolated 5"-6" totals possible. 

Still glad we're getting rain but too bad it couldn't be spaced farther apart. Besides that, sure am glad to have interesting weather return. 

[raindancewx]

This is just for fun...but all five Decembers here without rain/snow at at were followed by cold Aprils here, and the composite is cold nationally, literally no one above the +1F threshold for April highs against 1951-2010. I'm sure something will get screwed up, but its interesting nonetheless.

 

[aggiegeog]

The NM mountains actually got some widespread albeit light snow.

Snow is more widespread than expected in the Lubbock vicinity this afternoon. Even some reported with the main batch north of DFW in Gainesville. Temps do seem to be running just a touch colder than modeled and maybe the mid levels levels also if Gainesville is getting snow.

[vwgrrc]

GFS seems having trouble handling the system late next week. Also great variation between models/ensembles. Don't remember when was the last time I saw this chao...


.

[raindancewx]

I was playing with Nino 1.2 temperature correlations earlier today - its interesting that it isn't working this December. Long-term trend, and pretty strong at that - is for the Northern Plains to be cold in December if Nino 1.2 is cold in November. It's trending colder there now at the end of the month, but Bismarck looks like it will be +5 or so by the end of the month nonetheless. The areas that are coldest in Mexico this month should also be warmest - pretty strong trend. The yellows/blues are pretty strong relationships for ~68 year period.

The super hot November, centered on NM/CO makes a lot of sense looking at the composites, cold Nino 1.2 Oct = hot November for that area for 1948-2016. I was pleasantly surprised to see NM is near the 0 mark for February's correlation to March, it seems like cold Nino 1.2 has the strongest temperature impact here in November, then it fades to no impact by March, before gaining in power again.

 

[aggiegeog]

We may be looking at sub 20 degree highs early next week almost guaranteed sub freezing highs for multiple days.

[DoctorMu]

9 hours ago, aggiegeog said:

We may be looking at sub 20 degree highs early next week almost guaranteed sub freezing highs for multiple days.

Will be brisk for sure.

College Station may see lows in the teens, and subfreezing for 2 days.

 

 

[DoctorMu]

Potential freeze in south Florida next week, also.  Buy up OJ while you can!

[raindancewx]

Anyone want to guess when we'll get some weather down here? Last measurable precipitation was October 5th - longest dry streak here since 1956. European ensembles seem to be hinting at January 4th or so.

It's been neat watching the cold return to the Northern Plains - the high in Bismarck for Dec 1-20 was 42.5F, but for Dec 1-26 its down to 35.4F, cold is slaughtering huge amounts of the heat, but suspect the Northern Plains end up at +4 to +6 anyway, the mean December high for Bismarck for 1951-2010 is 26.1F, so 30/31F is still pretty warm. Obviously the deeper into the month you get, the harder it is for daily anomalous heat/cold to change the monthly anomalies.

We're going to end up at 52F/53F with no meaningful snow for the mountains or valleys since October in NM, going to be a horrible May-June for fires without a huge turn around. The huge heat in the Northern Plains / AZ/CA with a cold NE is often a strong wet signal down here for March, which would be nice. Hasn't been wet (+20%) in March against the means sinc 2007.

 

 

[aggiegeog]

Looking like an extended and extreme outbreak starting Sunday and lasting through mid month. I could go almost a month without seeing 50 degrees in E TX.

[jhamps10]

The news here in dfw have been hinting at possible wintery mix for Sunday... I've been looking at model data and I'm not seeing it...David finfrock is a Texas weather legend so I give it some thought but I'm not seeing it as likely right now IMHO

[vwgrrc]

46 minutes ago, jhamps10 said:

The news here in dfw have been hinting at possible wintery mix for Sunday... I've been looking at model data and I'm not seeing it...David finfrock is a Texas weather legend so I give it some thought but I'm not seeing it as likely right now IMHO

The latest AFD is also discussing it. But that looks very light with little impact at this point...

[aggiegeog]

2 hours ago, jhamps10 said:

The news here in dfw have been hinting at possible wintery mix for Sunday... I've been looking at model data and I'm not seeing it...David finfrock is a Texas weather legend so I give it some thought but I'm not seeing it as likely right now IMHO

Light freezing rain or drizzle seems fairly likely. Similar to West Texas the past couple days.

[gwlee7]

Being new to the area, I am not sure what I need to look for in the models as far as the weather patterns here.  I know that back East in NC we would want see low pressure exit TX into the gulf and then shift north east as it crossed Florida.  Our best snows in my part of the state came from that set up.  

[aggiegeog]

27 minutes ago, gwlee7 said:

Being new to the area, I am not sure what I need to look for in the models as far as the weather patterns here.  I know that back East in NC we would want see low pressure exit TX into the gulf and then shift north east as it crossed Florida.  Our best snows in my part of the state came from that set up.  

For this far north in Texas the best snows come from upper lows coming out of Mexico. A Gulf low moving NE through Lousiana can get us some snow. Occasionally a NW flow shortwave moving into already estaoshed cold can give us a big surprise high ratio snow. 

[raindancewx]

I'm rooting hard for the ongoing SOI crash. Currently down to -3.1 for Dec 1-27. Over +10 in Nov and Oct. Think it will may end up lower than that by month end. It isn't correlated super strongly with January precipitation, but it is fairly strongly correlated with January-March. Current reading (-3.1) would be 1.32", +/-1.25" at 95% certainty using the Dec SOI readings for 1931-2016 against Jan-Mar 1932-2017.