DFWWeather Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 28 minutes ago, aggiegeog said: I fully respect the NWS and the FTW office in particular is typically great, but the probability chart they put out regarding the winter storm threat being very low is as reckless or even more so than some nobody trying to hype the storm. This storm needs to be taken as seriously as if there was a hurricane being modeled to hit within a week. I agree, especially given that this is a Holiday impact storm with heavy travel. However, I understand their caution. There is a lot of chaos in the modeling, though, and none of them agree. The deeply negative EPO and the strong MJO phase 7 and 8 argue for deep cold in the southern plains. If we get moisture on top of this, it could get ugly. By the way, I kinda feel the GFS is outperforming the ECMWF this fall. The GFS did a better job with the cold and snow earlier in the month. I think the 0z runs ECMWF is strange hanging the cold up in the Rockies and spilling westward, and delaying it until after Christmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 personally, I have no problem whatsoever for FTW using caution in regards to mentioning this.. It gets the word out there that hey there could be something, but we aren't real sure that it will come about either.. Look at the models from last night, 0zGFS had nothing, but the 6Z had a crippling Icestorm for a good chunk of the metroplex. However I'd stock up on the Christmas groceries a bit earlier this year just in case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Neither have done great on the big events, though the GFS sure has been consistent on the upcoming storm. The SOI crash lends credence to a big time STJ which we have lacked so far this fall and winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 1 minute ago, jhamps10 said: personally, I have no problem whatsoever for FTW using caution in regards to mentioning this.. It gets the word out there that hey there could be something, but we aren't real sure that it will come about either.. Look at the models from last night, 0zGFS had nothing, but the 6Z had a crippling Icestorm for a good chunk of the metroplex. However I'd stock up on the Christmas groceries a bit earlier this year just in case My issue is the models have been very consistent with this event. The ensembles have not wavered and the operational runs, especially the GFS, have been incredibly consistent. Personally I have never seen the models show this strong of a signal, this far in advance (the GFS has been on this for a week without wavering significantly). I will be watching the NAM intently starting on Tuesday as it is the best model for Arctic air masses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 8 minutes ago, aggiegeog said: My issue is the models have been very consistent with this event. The ensembles have not wavered and the operational runs, especially the GFS, have been incredibly consistent. Personally I have never seen the models show this strong of a signal, this far in advance (the GFS has been on this for a week without wavering significantly). I will be watching the NAM intently starting on Tuesday as it is the best model for Arctic air masses. agreed, with the GFS showing the metroplex right on the line on the 12z run, starting on Saturday now instead of Christmas day... probably needs to get a bit more mentioning if the other models fall in line this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted December 15, 2017 Author Share Posted December 15, 2017 Wrong way BBB (Baja Bowling Ball) shown in the 12z GFS . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 42 minutes ago, aggiegeog said: My issue is the models have been very consistent with this event. The ensembles have not wavered and the operational runs, especially the GFS, have been incredibly consistent. Personally I have never seen the models show this strong of a signal, this far in advance (the GFS has been on this for a week without wavering significantly). I will be watching the NAM intently starting on Tuesday as it is the best model for Arctic air masses. Agree on the consistency (except for 0z last night). Confidence is getting higher for some wintry wx in NTX. But I think there's a trend of the freezing rain/sleet band shifting north with the latest 12z showing the Metro is right on the edge. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Metro "dodge" the event eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 1 minute ago, vwgrrc said: Agree on the consistency (except for 0z last night). Confidence is getting higher for some wintry wx in NTX. But I think there's a trend of the freezing rain/sleet band shifting north with the latest 12z showing the Metro is right on the edge. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Metro "dodge" the event eventually. wouldn't surprise me, but it wouldn't shock me either if it turns out the other way with the wintery precip being more like what happened with the snow last week in central and south TX.. I'm feeling a bite more confident myself that something may come up, almost to the point I may pick up some ice melt this weekend just in case, cuz if we don't need it, oh well it's good for the future 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 I'll say this looking at Facebook, the ft worth star telegram already has posted an article online.. So yeah, ftw will probably need to start saying a wee bit more this afternoon into tomorrow.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 12Z Euro is wow and it transitions things to snow early enough for much of it to fall as white stuff though all types are likely. Pretty much over a half foot of various precip types along I-20 across the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 16 minutes ago, aggiegeog said: 12Z Euro is wow and it transitions things to snow early enough for much of it to fall as white stuff though all types are likely. Pretty much over a half foot of varois precip types along I-20 across the state. Which means no wintry precip for North TX, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 1 minute ago, vwgrrc said: Which means no wintry precip for North TX, right? It shows a historic winter storm for N TX. Just remember this is just one model run, 9 days out from the potential event, so it is far from a forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 2 hours ago, vwgrrc said: Agree on the consistency (except for 0z last night). Confidence is getting higher for some wintry wx in NTX. But I think there's a trend of the freezing rain/sleet band shifting north with the latest 12z showing the Metro is right on the edge. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Metro "dodge" the event eventually. With the depth of this cold air, I can't imagine it going north of the metro. But, I'm not a met. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 18Z GFS with a scary run. Widespread areas of Texas modeled to get over 3 inches of liquid in sub freezing air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, aggiegeog said: 18Z GFS with a scary run. Widespread areas of Texas modeled to get over 3 inches of liquid in sub freezing air. Yes. But still, 7 days to go. I wouldn't get too concern or excited about that until probably Monday to Tuesday. If the model tells the same by then, that's something serious! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 1 minute ago, vwgrrc said: Yes. But still, 7 days to go. I wouldn't get too concern or excited about that until probably Monday to Tuesday. If the model tells the same by then, that's something serious! Agreed that we still have a bit of time for things to change, but at this point the models have been very consistent for a week and the threat is becoming greater and greater with every model cycle. This is a Harvey-esque situation where we know about the event well ahead of rime but the true scope becomes clearer as the event nears. Also remember that this event is likely to start next weekend and rounds of precip will continue every few days through at least early January with Arctic air being continually reinforced during that time frame. People had trouble comprehending the possibility of widespread 30"rain totals a week before Harvey also. You cannot deny when all models op and ens show very similar outcomes run after run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Looks like the models, (at least the GFS is) are now reducing the length and amount of cold air, am I reading that right? This was supposed to be long-lasting, but now it just shifts the trough off to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 12Z GFS shows a NASTY ice storm for the metroplex and areas just west all Christmas weekend long.. reminds me of the cobblestone ice event in ways actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 After several days of consistency, kind of hard to believe the 18z GFS back off the cold front and just give the metro plain rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Latest models showing the first front on Friday not being real cold so now wintery precip. Then the real cold comes down over the weekend with a massive high pressure dome. With high pressure like that single digits and def teens are very likely for lows. Not much of any precip the extreme cold. Though remember that it takes very little too produce light snow at those temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Well looking more meh. Still surprises me when models change something they have had consistently for run after run for a week. But, give me cold please and a storm will come. Problem is, hard to keep cold here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 1 hour ago, Roy said: Well looking more meh. Still surprises me when models change something they have had consistently for run after run for a week. But, give me cold please and a storm will come. Problem is, hard to keep cold here. The cold will be easier to keep if the Arctic Circle sgidta south to the Northern Plains as shown on recent models. Those 1050, 1060 or even 1070 highs will bring cold at the surface SE ridge or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 It's kind of incredible looking on Ryan Maue's new page to see how cold the European thinks it will get here around Christmas. High of 22F would be 24F below normal here. High is forecast at 12F in Santa Fe, with a low around -10F. Those are not common readings out here for areas that are populated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 For North Texas this weekend I think significant precip amounts are very likely, the question is will it be 29 or 60. I can see the Canadian scenario of cold west of I-35 with a wam sector over SE TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 There's a marginal risk for severe weather this afternoon across parts of East Texas. SPC mentions a possible upgrade to a slight risk along a line from Corsicana to Longview later. There will be a chance for a couple of brief tornadoes but gusty winds will be the main threat. We'll be socked in with clouds/rain for the most part, so it will depend on how much destabilization can take place with a warm front lifting northward into the area. At least we've finally got some interesting weather back in the area to talk about. *Edit - It does look like decent destabilization is taking place with some clearing and an associated cumulus field across SE TX. With the warm front lifting north, there is a decent chance that we may end up with higher instability than previously though. Something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 I enjoy reading Weatherbell's seasonal outlooks, but going to be pretty hard to get to this: Given this: Warmest area of the country right now is the place they thought would be coldest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, raindancewx said: I enjoy reading Weatherbell's seasonal outlooks, but going to be pretty hard to get to this: Given this: Warmest area of the country right now is the place they thought would be coldest. I think the N Plains will end up below average as the PNA shifts back to its expected mode of slightly negative with a consistent -EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 ^^ It's possible, but for the 90-day period of winter, we're 21% (19/90) through, and the anomalies are around +12F or more in places in the Northern Plains. I think of it like this, to be even average, you solve for x, where x is the departure value for remainder of winter to get the northern plains to average: (0.21 * 12) + (0.79*x) = 0 2.53 + 0.79x = 0 -2.53 = 0.79x x = -3.2F So it has to be over 3F below normal (-3.2F) the rest of the winter just for them to get to normal. I had ND at +0F to +1F for the winter, but even that's pretty hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 No matter what happens next week, I am happy with the rain for now. Finally some decent constant rain. My family Christmas plans are safe as well except for maybe a light snow driving back to TX, no biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 24 minutes ago, Roy said: No matter what happens next week, I am happy with the rain for now. Finally some decent constant rain. My family Christmas plans are safe as well except for maybe a light snow driving back to TX, no biggie. Yep, you cannot complain about how things are working out so far. A tricky forecast for Friday and Saturday but no scenario is anything like what looks possible as of late last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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