wxmx Posted December 11, 2017 Author Share Posted December 11, 2017 We didn't get the snow jackpot, but the big prize was so close that I could smell it. From my bedroom window you could see the mountains to the NW and N that got the main snow band. The highway from Monterrey to Laredo was closed with vehicles stranded for over 15 hours. Reports indicate 10+ inches of snow there (40 kms north of Monterrey). Mountains to the NW showed incredible gradients, with some peaks completely snow capped, with at least 1.5 feet of snow, probably closer to 2 feet at least. While 3 kms to the east there was probably less than 6 inches. Mountains to my south are higher, but probably got less than 6-8 inches top. In another news, the pattern appears to reload, with models showing the classic Hawaiian trough/Alaskan ridge progressing east into a W Pac ridge, mid Conus trough. Even the 6z GFS today shows a clear and extreme McFarland signature, with a 588dm ridge into south Alaska :o. It's in the long range, so I won't take it very seriously until it shows in the <7 days progs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 I would keep an eye on early next week as a sneaky opportunity for a significant winter storm. Recent runs have picked up on a front on Sunday with decent chance for some showers and storms. There is a low over Baja and if it can phase up with the trough then the trough will be deeper and we could likely see a Gulf low form which would move NE through Louisiana. For now it is just something to watch, but it has a decent chance of happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 There is flurry potential late this week for N TX and then a more significant winter storm is possible early next week as a upper low crosses the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 What day in particular? Have some travel plans for early next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 30 minutes ago, cheese007 said: What day in particular? Have some travel plans for early next week I am thinking Monday, it could easily turn out to be 55 and sunny if it stays an open wave. The models are just now seeing that the SW low will likely traverse the state after a front on Sunday. If the models trend stronger with the low crossing the state and if the front brings down additional cold air then we will have something to talk about, but still a lot of ifs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted December 12, 2017 Author Share Posted December 12, 2017 Models are starting to show snow for places > 5000 ft around here for this Friday, with the GFS being the most bullish. Pattern allows for storm after storm from the Pacific to dig south. A very cold pattern is taking shape for the Christmas week as well. It's a truly exceptional weather pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, wxmx said: Models are starting to show snow for places > 5000 ft around here for this Friday, with the GFS being the most bullish. Pattern allows for storm after storm from the Pacific to dig south. A very cold pattern is taking shape for the Christmas week as well. It's a truly exceptional weather pattern. I noticed that. The northern Mexican mountains are having a great December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted December 12, 2017 Author Share Posted December 12, 2017 1 minute ago, aggiegeog said: I noticed that. The northern Mexican mountains are having a great December. Yeah, and pretty early in the season. The Euro is bullish as well. It all comes down to how much phasing of the current Baja low goes on as the Polar Jet brings an s/w to meet it. The models are trending for much more interaction with the latest 12z runs, hence the sudden change of tune for this parts in relatively short notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, wxmx said: Yeah, and pretty early in the season. The Euro is bullish as well. It all comes down to how much phasing of the current Baja low goes on as the Polar Jet brings an s/w to meet it. The models are trending for much more interaction with the latest 12z runs, hence the sudden change of tune for this parts in relatively short notice. I have been expecting the phasing, hope it intensifies more still. Here in E TX we will need an intense upper low for us to have any shot at snow early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted December 12, 2017 Author Share Posted December 12, 2017 1 minute ago, aggiegeog said: I have been expecting the phasing, hope it intensifies more still. Here in E TX we will need an intense upper low for us to have any shot at snow early next week. Yeah, but not too much. A full phasing could suppress the storm south, and give Houston another taste of snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Well, my family Christmas in Kansas is on the 23rd, but we go up the 22nd. Then, we have to go to Abilene on Christmas Eve for my wife's family. This upcoming storm could be....interesting. May have to cancel the KS trip if it happens. We got stuck on the highway maybe 5 years ago in a major blizzard up there. I thought we would beat it but not quite, and it was worse than expected. The snowplows could not keep up, and we had to stop every 20 minutes that last 50 miles just to clear ice off the wipers. What a mess. Beautiful snow (about a foot), but never again.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 14 minutes ago, Roy said: Well, my family Christmas in Kansas is on the 23rd, but we go up the 22nd. Then, we have to go to Abilene on Christmas Eve for my wife's family. This upcoming storm could be....interesting. May have to cancel the KS trip if it happens. We got stuck on the highway maybe 5 years ago in a major blizzard up there. I thought we would beat it but not quite, and it was worse than expected. The snowplows could not keep up, and we had to stop every 20 minutes that last 50 miles just to clear ice off the wipers. What a mess. Beautiful snow (about a foot), but never again.... I feel ya, I am trying to determine a travel plan to get to the mountains after Christmas. I want no part of driving in an ice storm or blizzard. A few inches of powder I can handle, but that does not appear to be what we are looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 18Z GFS is similar to previous runs through early Sunday then it yanks the energy back over the SW and hold it there for a few days before ejecting on Tuesday. This would allow for significant snows and rains over NM and W TX and maybe into E AZ where they are extremely dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 We are now within 10 days of a potentially historic Arctic outbreak. I don't think I could dream up more ideal conditions than what the GFS had been showing for the last 4 days and now we are in the range of the other global models. GFS now shows the NPO ridge inn the GoA reaching into the 590s at 500 mb. That is levels we see in July here. That will likely lead to 1060s mb highs in MT around New Year's. This will also bring precip as we will be on the southern periphery of the upper trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 8 hours ago, aggiegeog said: We are now within 10 days of a potentially historic Arctic outbreak. I don't think I could dream up more ideal conditions than what the GFS had been showing for the last 4 days and now we are in the range of the other global models. GFS now shows the NPO ridge inn the GoA reaching into the 590s at 500 mb. That is levels we see in July here. That will likely lead to 1060s mb highs in MT around New Year's. This will also bring precip as we will be on the southern periphery of the upper trough. I'm liking what I'm seeing in terms of major cold getting here. The 500 mb heights certainly support some massive dump of cold air. Been watching the ECMWF for several runs and it has bee bringing -40°C plus air at H85 into the Great Lakes or just north of there for several runs (I think one run actually on the control got to -45°C). That is quite possibly the coldest air I ever seen on that model. Most models agree the leading edge of an Arctic airmass will make it into North Texas about Friday before Christmas. It is after this they diverge quite a bit. The ECMWF pushes deeper with the trough similar to last time pushing the storm track well south of DFW or North Texas. The latest 6z GFS today is a winter weather lover's dream with nearly 5 days of snow and ice (mostly ice). The 0z wasn't too shabby either. However, this is still several days out and we have been in a massive drought. Like the forecast saying goes, "when in drought leave it out!" Given the upper air pattern I would tend to favor the ECMWF right now. Regardless, the cold is coming, potentially even severe cold! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Finally the GFS goes back to normal and loses its consistency. Still has the very cold air, but the flow very different with an east based trough and almost little precip with a NW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 On 12/12/2017 at 1:54 PM, Roy said: Well, my family Christmas in Kansas is on the 23rd, but we go up the 22nd. Then, we have to go to Abilene on Christmas Eve for my wife's family. This upcoming storm could be....interesting. May have to cancel the KS trip if it happens. We got stuck on the highway maybe 5 years ago in a major blizzard up there. I thought we would beat it but not quite, and it was worse than expected. The snowplows could not keep up, and we had to stop every 20 minutes that last 50 miles just to clear ice off the wipers. What a mess. Beautiful snow (about a foot), but never again.... I'm in the same boat as you. I'm planning on leaving Longview, TX on the 22nd and driving north to Iowa. I am hoping for snow but not hoping for it on my travel days. I don't have a 4x4 vehicle to help me out anymore, either. Not that 4x4 helps you stop any better... Here's to winter weather AND safe driving conditions... (Is there such a thing? ) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captmorg70 Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Hello everyone! Seems like it’s that time of year again to start hoping for some winter weather chances. Y’all do such a great job! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Hoping the storms in the long range verify - the analogs had it very warm through about Dec 15 here, before a split showed up mid-Dec to mid-Jan - either very cold or very warm. The dry/warm years tended to go cold, the dry/wet years tended to stay warm...so we'll see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 06Z GFS shows up to a foot of precip through its run over ETX much falling post Arctic fromt. Now I do believe that reality will prove colder than it shows along with being drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 There is great agreement between the GFS and Euro along with their ensembles on a -EPO/-PNA pattern locking in starting late next week. Still too far out for to be confident in timing of precip or temp profiles to determine precip types. Overrunning events with Arctic air entrenched at the surface will tend to be freezing rain events, but we will wait to see how things play out with each individual system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted December 14, 2017 Author Share Posted December 14, 2017 1 hour ago, aggiegeog said: There is great agreement between the GFS and Euro along with their ensembles on a -EPO/-PNA pattern locking in starting late next week. Still too far out for to be confident in timing of precip or temp profiles to determine precip types. Overrunning events with Arctic air entrenched at the surface will tend to be freezing rain events, but we will wait to see how things play out with each individual system. Agree with your analysis. The difference between the models, so far up to 12z, is in the mean trough placement. The Euro is more progressive, with a less -PNA pattern that evolves into neutral/slightly positive. In consequence the mean trough is placed along the central CONUS, with a positive titled trough digging into NW MX. The reason, I think, is in how they handle the MJO. The Euro tugs it along into more favorable phases (8, 1), before plunging it into the circle of death. The GFS prefers phases 7 & 8 which would favor storminess along the Pacific coast, and undercutting, at least partially, the building trough further east. It's very hard to pinpoint the Pacific energy, which has been loaded with storms that dig south in this pattern...so even in a pattern where you have relatively shallow Arctic air entrenched, a Baja bowling ball would deepen the cold in the column and have more snow along it's track vs. freezing rain. The -EPO pattern looks pretty interesting, and the next 2 weeks (at least) look to be loaded with arctic air for our neck of the woods (Plains). The 10 day 12z Euro is just historic Christmas snow about to happen for a lot of people. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 28 minutes ago, wxmx said: Agree with your analysis. The difference between the models, so far up to 12z, is in the mean trough placement. The Euro is more progressive, with a less -PNA pattern that evolves into neutral/slightly positive. In consequence the mean trough is placed along the central CONUS, with a positive titled trough digging into NW MX. The reason, I think, is in how they handle the MJO. The Euro tugs it along into more favorable phases (8, 1), before plunging it into the circle of death. The GFS prefers phases 7 & 8 which would favor storminess along the Pacific coast, and undercutting, at least partially, the building trough further east. It's very hard to pinpoint the Pacific energy, which has been loaded with storms that dig south in this pattern...so even in a pattern where you have relatively shallow Arctic air entrenched, a Baja bowling ball would deepen the cold in the column and have more snow along it's track vs. freezing rain. The -EPO pattern looks pretty interesting, and the next 2 weeks (at least) look to be loaded with arctic air for our neck of the woods (Plains). The 10 day 12z Euro is just historic Christmas snow about to happen for a lot of people. If the 12Z plays out then we are really set up for something special as you stated. Extrapolate that out to Christmas and beyond we will be in a winter wonderland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Definitely looks like a fascinating pattern finally setting up. Could be a big one with multiple rounds depending on how things evolve...still very early and been burned too many times to count. Just hope the timing lets the holiday plans go off fine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 The 18z gives DFW 30+ hours of freezing rain/sleet! I'll only believe it when I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 The latest GFS has the entire West, Mexico to Canada covered in snow in the next ten days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captmorg70 Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 This is still very long range, but fun to follow. The potential freezing rain aspect of the storm would be a nightmare though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted December 14, 2017 Author Share Posted December 14, 2017 All is games and fun until you migrate a subtropical-like ridge into the Arctic circle and a massive 1063mb high barrels down the continent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 I don't know if it will continue, but the SOI has had a major drop to negative values over the past four days, first big, somewhat extended drop since June/July. Usually when the SOI runs counter-cyclically to the predominant ENSO mode you get some crazy stuff. I'd say it won't really weaken the La Nina too much but it will weaken its effects if that makes any sense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 I fully respect the NWS and the FTW office in particular is typically great, but the probability chart they put out regarding the winter storm threat being very low is as reckless or even more so than some nobody trying to hype the storm. This storm needs to be taken as seriously as if there was a hurricane being modeled to hit within a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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