Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 8

[raindancewx]

The JAMSTEC update for June looks like it has borderline El Nino conditions for mid-Oct to mid-Feb, with the rest of the forecast period merely "warm neutral". Whatever you'd call it, the trend is way down since April when the Jamstec had a super El Nino, and May when it had a pretty healthy 2009-like El Nino.

The good news for the West, is that the Jamstec has also corrected away from forecasting an El Nino Modoki to showing a relatively traditional (if weak) El Nino.

Looks like a low solar, weak, traditional, warm AMO, warm PDO, post ~La Nina, post wet monsoon Summer, El Nino-ish winter for the West.

Blend of 1943 (x6), 1986 (x2), 1997 (x1), 2006 (x6) seems like a pretty good match to what the Jamstec shows.

 

[Chinook]

107-110 in Texas. heat indices over 100 covered an area from central KS down to Mexico.

[raindancewx]

Time to wake up Texans!

[cstrunk]

I would go for that track, or one 100 west... 

[Chinook]

Fort Worth Airport had 2.91" since Friday morning. That's quite a bit of rain.

 

[Chinook]

On June 24th, Dallas/Ft Worth Airport had 3.84" of rain, which breaks a daily record. 7.93" of rain this month.

 

[raindancewx]

6/24-6/25 big bands of precip have set up over the Gila in New Mexico, then drifted east. So far they have missed Albuquerque, but the band today might get here. Gonna be close.

[raindancewx]

For a La Nina-ish year, Albuquerque did pretty well in terms of the traditional precip/evaporation measures in July 2016-June 2017. For every inch of water evaporated during the year, we got about 47.5% back as precipitation. That's really not bad given it was a pretty warm year overall. Traditionally, La Nina years only get ~40%, but some do get more.

 

[cstrunk]

We need a subject title change in here! 

I'm enjoying the summer that finally arrived to East Texas, Happy Independence Day! 

[raindancewx]

I'm still kind of conflicted on the winter. Historically, +0.5C ONI in AMJ usually leads to an El Nino, of some strength. But it occasionally leads to cold Neutral too.

Can eliminate a La Nina though. Unless coming off an El Nino ('41->'42, '82->'83, '97->'98, '04-'05, '15->'16 ) La Nina hasn't formed after a +0.4C or greater ONI in AMJ, at least back to 1930.

Options seem to be: Moderate Modoki El Nino, w/ low solar, a warm Atlantic, a warm or neutral-ish PDO, following a Modoki La Nina, after a wet monsoon. That would be a cold winter with relatively average precipitation and fairly high snow totals for me.

OR

a Cold Neutral, w/ low solar, a warm Atlantic, a cool or netural-ish PDO, following a Modoki La Nina, after a dry monsoon. That would be a cold winter with low precipitation and average snow totals for me. 

Neutrals can be very cold in the West if the AMO is high, the PDO is low, and solar is low, but they're not as wet as El Ninos. 2012-13 was cool in my area with a somewhat warm Atlantic, a cold Pacific, and high solar, after a hot, dry Summer.

[raindancewx]

The European (public) page updated, had Nino 3.4 at +0.5C in July, down from +0.6C in June. This is despite the substantial cooling in Nino 3.4 since July 24th or so. We have yet to return to +0.5C or higher since than cooling, which followed a big positive SOI burst.

 

 

[cstrunk]

I'm welcoming these below normal temperatures in East Texas. Plus we had 1-2" of rain last night and this morning in a decent portion of the area with high temperatures in the low 80's. Not what you expect to experience in early August! The humidity was gone for a few days but is definitely back now, though. 

[DoctorMu]

On 2/12/2017 at 6:22 PM, Quixotic1 said:

Well, climo is working against us.  The cfs and cansips are ghastly.  I got nothin.  We sit at 11 freezes at DFW.  We technically have about 6 weeks to get three freezes but i see nothing hopeful.  14 is the fewest.  be afraid.  Be very afraid.  

 

This is the best I've got.  Just a freeze.  In the distance.  Besides for 2 cold days an a 17°F low, the coldest in College sSation in a decade...we've got nothing.

After a few days of cloudy, cooler, and rainier weather - back to August doldrums.  High humidity, temps, heat indices.  zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

 

 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
616 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Some patchy fog at KLBX and KCXO has produced some brief MVFR
conditions, but the fog is shallow and should burn off between
13-14z. The HRRR is bullish with rain chances today along a
developing sea breeze boundary. Fcst soundings show PW values
between 2.00 and 2.10 inches but the moisture profile looks dry.
A weak cap was noted near 850 mb, but the cap looks breakable
with heating. Have kept the VCTS for areas for southern TAF sites
but have removed the mention of precip from KCLL, KUTS and KCXO.
VFR conditions expected tonight with some patchy fog again
possible at KCXO/KLBX toward sunrise. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A passing shower or two along with some patchy fog will be
possible early this morning, primarily across the Piney Woods
region. Ridging begins to take hold of the forecast today, helping
us return to a more typical summertime pattern. Could still get
some scattered showers and storms both today and Friday, primarily
along the sea breeze. Rain chances become more limited heading
into the weekend as the ridge remains overhead. With the lowering
chances for showers/storms, high temperatures will be on the rise
for much of the forecast period, generally ranging from the upper
80s right along the coast to the mid/upper 90s across the Brazos
Valley. Light to moderate south to southeasterly flow throughout
the upcoming week will keep humidity high, allowing heat index
values to surge into the 103-109 degree range during the
afternoons. Right now, Friday and Saturday are forecast to have
the highest heat index values, and heat advisories may be
required.

 

[raindancewx]

I've been playing with a Fall outlook by matching weather conditions in my area w/ ocean/solar conditions globally, and even though Texas looks somewhat warm (+1F to +3F) in Fall, it does look wetter than average, with maybe a hurricane or two late Aug - late Sept?

Don't think it'd be more than 1-2 though, the two clusters seem to be Central Gulf of Mexico landfalls and SC landfalls in the analogs. 1932 was the only year with a couple TX landfalls.

Selfishly, I'd like TX to fry, we tend to be wet here when you have big highs over you - haven't had a wet August (>1.2* mean of 1.45") in the city since 2006.

[cheese007]

Have had a couple TOR warnings today in TX. Kinda surprising

[aggiegeog]

Possible tornado near Canton moving east.

[cstrunk]

Looks like storms are interacting with plentiful boundaries/outflow boundaries. A storm developing over Tyler has shown some weak rotation with a decent wall cloud. Nothing severe out of it yet, but so nice to see since I haven't had a good storm in a long time! Looks like the Canton storm is heading towards Tyler.

[aggiegeog]

Keep an eye on that broad rotation moving towards Brownsborro and eventually towards Lake Palestine.

[cstrunk]

Texas has been enjoying very timely rains this summer in most locations, it seems. Very nice to see. 

Parts of NE TX had 2-6" of rain this weekend. We had another round of thunderstorms move through today.

[raindancewx]

I'll put my Fall Outlook on here tomorrow - it's fairly short, only 14 slides, 8 pictures.

Generally, expecting a cooler Fall in New Mexico. We had a warm (+2.2), wet (+20%) Fall last year against 1931-2016 means. This year, expecting a cooler (-0.8F), wet (+30%) Fall against 1931-2016 means.

Main differences for NM that I expect are:

- Cooler/ Wetter Sept v. 2016

- Much Cooler (-6F, 69.9F instead of 75.9F) / Wetter Oct v. 2016

- Slightly Cooler / Much Drier Nov v 2016 - we had near record precip last November.

[raindancewx]

Had a lovely cloudy/cool day yesterday here, 76F for the high 60F at night. 78F or 79F today?

https://t.co/on5O30hu92  Fall Outlook

Anyway - Jamstec August update is in. Still likes a Neutral winter (but it uses a weird base period 1983-2006), and it has the West pretty cold now. Modoki values in winter are correlated somewhat with low solar, so I think its on the right track in dropping the Modoki value to 0, maybe to below 0 next month. >0 means Central Tropical Pacific is warmer than East/West Tropical Pacific. <0 means the opposite. So high Modoki values (>0 ) are a La Nina Traditional or El Nino Modoki signature (2009), while low values (<0) are a La Nina Modoki or El Nino Traditional signature. It does get weird, because just about La Ninas are -Modoki values, so -0.3 might be a better indicator. The +/-0 works well for El Ninos though.

Last winter (DJF) was a La Nina Modoki, with -0.4C officially in DJF (after several -0.8C and -0.7C periods), with a -0.5 Modoki reading. I'm rooting for a -0.0 to -0.2 Modoki reading and a cold Neutral (-0.2 to -0.4C) ONI at this point. JAMSTEC had -0.2C in Aug 2016 for DJF 2016-17, but ended up at -0.4C. It shows +0.1C for DJF 17-18. So hopefully we stay in the negative Neutral zone. I like -0.3C or so for winter, maybe -0.5C in the Fall for one period.

 

[aggiegeog]

Wow, Harvey looks like it is starting to bomb. These are going to the a very rough few days for South and Southeast Texas.

[raindancewx]

On 8/10/2017 at 6:58 PM, raindancewx said:

I've been playing with a Fall outlook by matching weather conditions in my area w/ ocean/solar conditions globally, and even though Texas looks somewhat warm (+1F to +3F) in Fall, it does look wetter than average, with maybe a hurricane or two late Aug - late Sept?

Don't think it'd be more than 1-2 though, the two clusters seem to be Central Gulf of Mexico landfalls and SC landfalls in the analogs. 1932 was the only year with a couple TX landfalls.

Selfishly, I'd like TX to fry, we tend to be wet here when you have big highs over you - haven't had a wet August (>1.2* mean of 1.45") in the city since 2006.

As I noted - this year is kind of like 1932 in a background sense (PDO, AMO, Solar, ENSO, ENSO sequence, Modoki status, etc). Here was hurricane two in 1932:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1932_Freeport_hurricane

[Jebman]

Does anyone know where I can get an AFD for anywhere in coastal Texas, as close to Corpus as possible?

I want to read a full technical AFD about the next 7 days in that part of Texas, lol.

I have been looking for hours and hours - can't find a single AFD about the storm.

I am developing a full documentary about Harvey, with pics and notepad backups of all pertinent AFDs.

I guess you could say I am slightly interested in this storm.

[Chinook]

60-day percent of normal precipitation and drought monitor for possible landfall areas, show a minor drought near Corpus Christi, but above normal precipitation around Houston.

 

 

[raindancewx]

This is what I found for the 1932 Freeport Hurricane rain totals, which happened on a similar path, and with somewhat slow movement. It was a cat four though, don't think Harvey will be. Probably less wind, more rain as a result.

[raindancewx]

The transition in mean highs in Jun->Jul->Aug is a pretty decent indicator of snow in ABQ. We had pattern one this Summer. Against 1931-2016 mean highs, June was +3.2, July was +0.1, and August was -1.3F. Historically, going from warmer to cooler anomalies from June to July to August tends to come before a snowy winter in Albuquerque. It isn't particularly biased by El Nino either, only 35% of the years that fit the pattern are El Nino. Most are actually Neutrals (58%), which is what I expect this year to be.

Pattern one Summers also tend to have slightly warmer than normal winter highs in the Northeast, even with 2014-15 in there as a striking counter-example.

[aggiegeog]

It has been a pretty dry summer except for a could very wet periods around here. My grass is starting to die so I am having to break down and water it. 

It is good to see snow in the forecast for the NM peaks this weekend. They should get a few inches before it all melts off with the western ridging next week.

[raindancewx]

Seems like in addition to the snow on the highest peaks, Eastern New Mexico will be dealing with severe weather and a big rain event later in the week. I'm expecting around 0.3" here by next week.

[Roy]

This thread is basically dead, but will say I am looking forward to some rain finally it appears next week. Just hope it gets this far east. Looks like a pretty heavy concentration from AUS to Amarillo.