bubba hotep Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Watching radar, it looks like the flood threat might be realized across portions of the DFW area. From about an hour ago: MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0019 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 712 PM EST SUN JAN 15 2017 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX...NORTH TX CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE VALID 160011Z - 160526Z SUMMARY...TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTION IN RAPID SUCCESSION WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN ENVIRONMENT MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN OR OTHER PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE AREAS. DISCUSSION...THE ENVIRONMENT WAS PERHAPS FOREMOST A SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT...BUT THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL SHOULD NOT BE UNDERESTIMATED AS SOUTH TO NORTH TRAINING BANDS OF CONVECTION WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A QUASI-LINEAR SYSTEM. LATE AFTERNOON HRRR RUNS HAD BEEN CONSISTENT AT PRODUCING ISOLATED TOTALS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES STRADDLING THE WARM FRONT / INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR THROUGH 05Z. AT 00Z...THE INITIAL STORMS WERE TRAINING FROM ABOUT 190 DEGREES...FOLLOWING THE MEAN LOWER TO MID LEVEL WINDS...AS BROAD SCALE LIFT INCREASED AHEAD OF THE EJECTING NEGATIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL WAVE. THERE WAS A CORRESPONDING SUBTLE BACKING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW OBSERVED PER RAP SOUNDINGS AND VAD WIND PROFILES FROM FWS/GRK CONTRIBUTING TO THE TRAINING CELL MOTIONS. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN...ONE-HOUR RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM KFWS HAD INCREASED ABOVE 2 INCHES WEST OF WACO AND HILLSBORO. THIS WAS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE RADAR AND AWAY FROM MELTING LAYER ISSUES...SUCH THAT THERE IS LITTLE REASON TO DOUBT THE ESTIMATES. PW VALUES WERE INCREASING TOWARD 1.4 INCHES IN THIS REGION AND OTHER FACTORS SUCH AS INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX WILL FAVOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION DESPITE SOME SMALL HAIL. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE SOMEWHAT HIGH...BUT GIVEN THE RECENT RADAR QPE TRENDS THE 3-HOUR FFG VALUES MAY BE EXCEEDED WHEREVER THE S-N BANDS SET UP IN ADVANCE OF THE SQUALL LINE. WITH THE WARM FRONT ALSO BISECTING THE DALLAS / FORT WORTH METROPLEX...URBAN RUNOFF ISSUES MAY BECOME A FACTOR AS WELL. BURKE ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SHV... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 When the sounding from 0z at FWD is modified to the 65/63 of DFW, SBCAPE increases to over 1000J/Kg. Definitely want to watch these storms closely as they enter the metroplex. Storm south of Fort Worth is a total mess right now, but does have a good environment ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 TOR warned again also a TOR warned cell in kerr county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 There is a reference to CASA radar in this tornado warning. This could be a dangerous situation if there is a tornado on the ground near the metro area. (not sure if a tornado is on the ground) Quote At 748 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located just north of Grandview. CASA radar indicates that the circulation has just crossed I-35 and will pass between FM-1807 and FM-2258 southeast of Alvarado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 an update still says radar indicated SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 756 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017 TXC251-160215- /O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-170116T0215Z/ JOHNSON TX- 756 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CST FOR NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY... AT 754 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF ALVARADO. CASA RADAR SHOWS THE CIRCULATION APPROACHING FM-1807 JUST EAST OF ALVARADO. IT WILL APPROACH HIGHWAY 67 BETWEEN ALVARADO AND VENUS OVER THE NEXT FEW MINUTES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 8 minutes ago, Chinook said: There is a reference to CASA radar in this tornado warning. This could be a dangerous situation if there is a tornado on the ground near the metro area. (not sure if a tornado is on the ground) Might be the first time we made the text of a warning. Full disclosure the storm is fairly attenuated at X band for an ideal view, but I guess there is enough signal for the WFO to at least make out the location pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, radarman said: Might be the first time we made the text of a warning. Full disclosure the storm is fairly attenuated at X band for an ideal view, but I guess there is enough signal for the WFO to at least make out the location pretty well. I missed it in real time, but see it now going back through the frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 804 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 830 PM CST * AT 802 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF HIGHWAY 67 BETWEEN ALVARADO AND VENUS. CASA RADAR INDICATES THAT THIS CIRCULATION WILL APPROACH PLEASANT POINT AND LILLIAN OVER THE NEXT FEW MINUTES. HAZARD...TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 10 minutes ago, bubba hotep said: I missed it in real time, but see it now going back through the frames. Better views as it came across 67 near the Midlothian radar. New warning also mentioned it. More importantly this is a significant storm and certainly out of season for the second year in a row. That stretch of 67 near Venus has been particularly active, by chance or not, in the years since we have set up the radars. Numerous strong storms have run that stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Storm is lifting N and should it continue with strength it will find itself in football game traffic. Dangerous situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Really nice hook now. The line just west of it will overtake soon but until then dangerous situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Still nothing confirmed but new warning Dallas county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Tornado Warning in Dallas County now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Confirmed now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 847 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0843 PM TORNADO GRAND PRAIRIE 32.75N 96.98W 01/15/2017 DALLAS TX TRAINED SPOTTER CONFIRMED TORNADO STATE HIGHWAY 161 AND ARKANSAS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 And now has weakened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 WTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 He's posting the same images in each thread...but if you go back far enough he says he is weatherfeen and is upset with the Mods? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Where are the Mods? Clean this up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Sorry folks. There was stuff being posted all over the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Today is about the nastiest day I've seen in Albuquerque: - No Sun - No Snow (trying...but not yet) - low of 34F high of 43F - 90-100% humidity all day - record rain for this day in January (0.62" as of 10 pm) Mountains are going to look beautiful if the sun clears tomorrow. The PDO+ is a strong precipitation here in all months from Nov-May, save for Dec, so it's interesting seeing it win against the La Nina so far - was wet in Nov, now wet in Jan. In Dec, when the PDO+ isn't a big deal, we were average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ticka1 Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 storms approaching houston area -just in time for rush hour traffic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 We received about 2.5" of rain at my house last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 1.62 north Fw. Good needed heavier rain. DFW over 3 inches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Got a bunch of stuff in my yard that wasn't there this morning. Vent covers, shingles and what not. All the patio furniture got slammed.into the fence. First time I've seen that in 5 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 The 1931-32 to 2015-16 mean precipitation in Albuquerque is 0.80" from Dec 1 to Jan 15. We had 1.31" (+64%) this winter, close to a top ten amount...and yet hardly any snow. Been both warm and wet. Suspect it will get much colder in the coming days/weeks though relative to normal. We're actually already guaranteed at least a near average winter here for precip now - 1.31" is just about the Dec-Feb average already. Any rain/snow of any consequence will push us above to well above average for the winter. My view is the La Nina/warm AMO are firmly in charge for warmth here, and this is now fairly likely to be a +1F to +3F winter by mean highs against the 85 year mean, but the PDO+ is fighting the La Nina hard on the moisture side of it. Halfway through the winter we're already wetter than all but nine of the past 26 La Ninas. The 10-mountain basins in New Mexico are actually 3% above normal right now, which is amazing too. Even the Sandias got over a foot of snow with the last system. You can fly into Albuquerque and be at a fully functional resort within 40 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Nbc5 dfw reported on the news tonight NWS survey confirmed 4 tornadoes so far in North Texas From last night.. A couple ef-1's down in Hill County but all others rated ef-0 so far.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Maybe the weekend storm can ease a bit south and find another 10-15 degrees of cooling. We can hope at least. I'll take my chances with a sub 540 closed low in the heart of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Given the realities of the temperature and precip anomalies so far this winter, I changed my winter outlook map to show a mild/wet winter in the Southwest. Also don't think the cold can be wiped out in Montana, it's been frigid again up there this month. Cold to me is mean highs >=2F below normal, Warm is mean highs >=2F above normal. I don't really look at lows, since most populated places have strong urban heat island effects and will just about always be "warm" against a long term mean. Mild is in between +/-2F Wet is >=1.2x long term mean precip, Dry is <=0.8x long term mean precip. Moist is 0.81-1.19x mean. Unless we get less than 33% of normal precip (<0.6" * 0.33 for ABQ) here in the SW Jan 17 through Feb 28, this is going to be a wet winter. Already too wet to be "dry". Can only be moist or wet at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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