janetjanet998 Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 SPC not to bullish with tornado potential MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0052 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY VALID 151857Z - 152130Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN SEVERE RISK, THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DISCUSSION...ARCS OF CONVECTION ARE SPREADING EASTWARD/NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TX, WITHIN A REGION OF STRONG DCVA PRECEDING AN UPPER CYCLONE EMERGING OVER THE TX TRANS-PECOS REGION, AND AT THE LEADING EDGE OF AN ATTENDANT MIDLEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM/DRY SLOT. ANTECEDENT CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MODIFY, WITH A WARM FRONT ADVANCING NORTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND VICINITY. TWO-HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 2.0-3.5 MB HIGHLIGHT THE ONGOING WARM ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING A 30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET, INDICATED BY AREA VAD WIND PROFILES. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD MOTION OF THE BOUNDARY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER CYCLONE EMERGES OVER THE PLAINS. AS A RESULT, HIGHER THETA-E AIR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY -- PRESENTLY CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S -- WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHWARD. WITH MODEST DIURNAL HEATING OF THIS AIR MASS, INFLOW FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCS OF CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME SURFACE-BASED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE SEVERE RISK -- AIDED BY 45-55 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR COMBINING WITH 500-1250 J/KG OF MLCAPE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY -- WILL INCREASE IN THE 20Z-22Z TIME FRAME, AND DEVELOP EASTWARD/NORTHEASTWARD. A QUASI-LINEAR MODE MAY TEND TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY A SEVERE-WIND RISK. HOWEVER, SUFFICIENTLY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY PROMOTE AN ISOLATED SEVERE-HAIL RISK -- PARTICULARLY WITH LINE-EMBEDDED/LEADING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. AMPLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A TORNADO OR TWO, THOUGH THE UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF LINE-RELATED OUTFLOW, COMBINED WITH THE ONGOING INCIPIENT STAGES OF BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION, CAST DOUBT ON A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO RISK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 San Angelo radar is down 19z HRRR has almost discrete rotating cells over /mid central texas with decent Helicity swaths Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 1 minute ago, janetjanet998 said: San Angelo radar is down 19z HRRR has almost discrete rotating cells over central texas Oh lovely.. At least you have somewhat decent coverage provided by midland and the radar near abilene to help fill in that gap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: San Angelo radar is down 19z HRRR has almost discrete rotating cells over central texas apparently the parts needed to get SJT up and going won't be there until Tuesday. have to admit, that's good timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 still a slight risk although noted metroplex threat .SUMMARY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. A FEW TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL ARE ANTICIPATED. ..20Z UPDATE THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE PRIOR OUTLOOK ACROSS THIS AREA HAS BEEN TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT AND LINE OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE APPRECIABLE SEVERE RISK REMAINS CONFINED BY A SHALLOW COLD AND STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST OK. FOR MORE NEAR-TERM METEOROLOGICAL DETAILS (THROUGH ~2130Z) ON THE DEVELOPING SEVERE RISK ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX, SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 52. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING OVER PARTS OF EAST TX IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME MAY BECOME SURFACE BASED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW TO MID 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE METROPLEX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. RAP/HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP WITH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR CONVECTION AS A LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH TX IN THE 00-03Z TIMEFRAME. HAVE ACCORDINGLY MADE A MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE 5% TORNADO PROBABILITIES IN/AROUND THE METROPLEX TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO. ..GLEASON.. 01/15/2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 7 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: still a slight risk although noted metroplex threat .SUMMARY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. A FEW TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL ARE ANTICIPATED. ..20Z UPDATE THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE PRIOR OUTLOOK ACROSS THIS AREA HAS BEEN TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT AND LINE OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE APPRECIABLE SEVERE RISK REMAINS CONFINED BY A SHALLOW COLD AND STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST OK. FOR MORE NEAR-TERM METEOROLOGICAL DETAILS (THROUGH ~2130Z) ON THE DEVELOPING SEVERE RISK ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX, SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 52. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING OVER PARTS OF EAST TX IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME MAY BECOME SURFACE BASED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW TO MID 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE METROPLEX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. RAP/HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP WITH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR CONVECTION AS A LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH TX IN THE 00-03Z TIMEFRAME. HAVE ACCORDINGLY MADE A MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE 5% TORNADO PROBABILITIES IN/AROUND THE METROPLEX TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO. ..GLEASON.. 01/15/2017 isn't that right around the time the Dallas/Green Bay game ends and people start heading home? maybe some post-game fan safety concerns? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 San Angelo radar seems to be up at 20:46z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Awfully cold and misty still here in DFW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 1 hour ago, Roy said: Awfully cold and misty still here in DFW. low-mid 60's dew points on the SE side of the metroplex at 22z I suspect the game might have a few lightning delays after the half Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Must be the warm front moving north that is keeping us in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 9 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: low-mid 60's dew points on the SE side of the metroplex at 22z I suspect the game might have a few lightning delays after the half i thought AT&T stadium was a domed stadium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 3 minutes ago, Jim Marusak said: i thought AT&T stadium was a domed stadium. oh yeah LOL....what was i thinking.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Have had nearly half of inch of rain - not freezing rain, not sleet, not snow - with this system so far. But the dew point is finally dropping into the 30s, night is coming, and a trowal is forming. May get some wet snow later on, although wouldn't really stick. Mountains got some snow out of this, but was a pretty warm system for mid-January with snow levels above 7,500 feet for most of the event. This winter (Dec-Feb) is now well above average for Dec 1 - Jan 15 here. We average 0.70 inches precip in that period. Currently at 1.05", with a bit more likely tonight. Been remarkable how little snow we've had with the moisture, but I never liked the first half of the winter for ABQ anyway, second half is where it's at or at least that was my forecast idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 17 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: low-mid 60's dew points on the SE side of the metroplex at 22z I suspect the game might have a few lightning delays after the half 7 minutes ago, Jim Marusak said: i thought AT&T stadium was a domed stadium. 6 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: oh yeah LOL....what was i thinking that all being said, I have to admit having that line on US 281 from Mineral Wells to Lampasas looks awfully ominous for i-35 eventually, and the t-storm in Mansfield may make things interesting at the stadium in the next 15-30 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 storms near WACO (where dews are 64-65) getting that look almost like 2 warmfronts one moving north and another creeping west storm NW of Del Rio nice hook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 yea, that is a nice hook down near there, but it sort of devolved a bit as it moves south of Carta Valley. As for the storms near Waco, the most interesting velocity signature there is in between Meridian, Whitney, and Clifton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 152320Z - 160115Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT IS GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL, AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL. DISCUSSION...OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL TX, NORTHWARD TO NEAR THE RED RIVER. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS CELLULAR IN NATURE WITH SEVERAL DEEPER UPDRAFTS HAVING THE CHARACTERISTICS OF SUPERCELLS. ONE STORM HAS A LONGER HISTORY OF ROTATION AS IT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS WILLIAMSON/BELL/CORYELL COUNTIES. WEAK SUPERCELLS ARE NOW EVOLVING NORTHWEST OF WACO OVER HAMILTON/BOSQUE COUNTIES. SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY IS STILL QUITE WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION BUT DEW POINTS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING AND NEAR-SFC BASED CONVECTION COULD YIELD A SMALL BUT INCREASING THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. EVEN SO, THE PRIMARY RISK SHOULD BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THIS REGION IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR A WATCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0001.170115T2327Z-170116T0000Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 527 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN CORYELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 600 PM CST * AT 526 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR FORT GATES, OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GATESVILLE, MOVING NORTH AT 50 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Polygon warnings are not being displayed on NWS radars. HHave had this issue before. Not good when tornadic cells might be headed your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 8 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 600 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS * EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT FROM 600 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE SUMMARY...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN EAST/NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING SQUALL LINE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS. SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ASIDE FROM DAMAGING WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Dew point and temp rapidly rising in north Tarrant. Thunder/lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 I think is a second TOR warned storm....like Indy said radar doesn't have polygons edit: looks like the same storm edit2: not sure ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 610 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL BOSQUE COUNTY IN CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 645 PM CST * AT 609 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CLIFTON, MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 TOG EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 634 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017 TXC035-217-160100- /O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-170116T0100Z/ BOSQUE TX-HILL TX- 634 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CST FOR NORTHEASTERN BOSQUE AND SOUTHWESTERN HILL COUNTIES... AT 634 PM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE WHITNEY STATE PARK, OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF CLIFTON, MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 still on ground moving at a decent clip will start to affect southern metroplex here soon EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 645 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017 TXC035-217-160100- /O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-170116T0100Z/ BOSQUE TX-HILL TX- 645 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CST FOR NORTHEASTERN BOSQUE AND WEST CENTRAL HILL COUNTIES... AT 645 PM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE WHITNEY STATE PARK, OR 16 MILES WEST OF HILLSBORO, MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Good couplet now showing up on NWS velocity radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 WFUS54 KFWD 160053 TORFWD TXC217-251-160130- /O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0005.170116T0053Z-170116T0130Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 653 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL JOHNSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... NORTHWESTERN HILL COUNTY IN CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 730 PM CST * AT 652 PM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WHITNEY, OR 14 MILES WEST OF HILLSBORO, MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 LSR's say trees and power lines down in Whitney area with 4-5 homes damaged, one without a roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 tornado reported at Laguna Park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 These storms are very energetic, lots of lightning even with these weaker cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Tons of lightning. First time in two years - lost power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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