bubba hotep Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 43 minutes ago, Quixotic1 said: I say that every winter/spring when it's boring and nothing to track. I'm still optimistic about later in the winter. Maybe end of January - Early March. Right now, there's little blocking to send cold air our way. Maybe some storms to track this weekend but it seems pretty "meh". Strat warming about to commence. Never know where the dump will be though. Good thing for this current system or it would be a two week snooze fest. Hopefully, the Pacific jet will relax and another -EPO will pop. Also, models are trying to get the MJO going, it would be nice if the next cold spell had a connection to some tropical forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 15 minutes ago, bubba hotep said: Good thing for this current system or it would be a two week snooze fest. Hopefully, the Pacific jet will relax and another -EPO will pop. Also, models are trying to get the MJO going, it would be nice if the next cold spell had a connection to some tropical forcing. Phases 1,2 and 3. Not too shabby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Well, I don't want an ice storm of death, but bummer it will just be a pouring rain, though we need one badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Afternoon AFD from FWD indicates 2-5" of rain from this system with sone areas possibly requiring a flash flood watch. That should help get a jump start on topping off area lakes before the summer hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 PDO came in at 1.17 for December (JISAO) fell big time from November (1.88) http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 3 hours ago, raindancewx said: PDO came in at 1.17 for December (JISAO) fell big time from November (1.88) http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest Big drop but still pretty high for December, a quick glance looks like a Top 10 reading since 1950. Does it stay positive and do we get back to +ENSO? That was a good rain combo for Texas in the recent past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 11 hours ago, Quixotic1 said: Phases 1,2 and 3. Not too shabby! Phase 2 during Nina looks suspiciously "McFarlandish" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Looks like outbreak of 1898 type stuff. Gimme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Things continue to look good for a soaking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 We certainly use the soaking.. Also hopefully it washes out the mountain cedar too.. That is killing me this week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 1 hour ago, jhamps10 said: We certainly use the soaking.. Also hopefully it washes out the mountain cedar too.. That is killing me this week! I'm getting crushed over here! I never had allergies in DC and then move here and Mt. Cedar hit me like a ton of bricks. This go round is horrible, the whole family is down with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 10 minutes ago, bubba hotep said: I'm getting crushed over here! I never had allergies in DC and then move here and Mt. Cedar hit me like a ton of bricks. This go round is horrible, the whole family is down with it. I know, it's hit me almost like a flubug, I thought it was the flu, and as such stayed home from work yesterday until I did some looking into mountain cedar and it can mimic the flu in severe go rounds... Personally I'm ready for it to be over! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 My allergies are still going strong for a 3rd day, worst attack ever! Hopefully, the wind shift this afternoon will be the 1st step to relief and then some decent rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Currently 57 in Denton and 77 in Dallas. Front should be moving through MBY any minute now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 European model has New Mexico, especially the mountains, getting a lot of snow the next ten days. It's great to see it. My analogs had a concentration of snowstorms in New Mexico around 1.29 to 2.3, so I have that period targeted for something big as well. Much of the snow shown below is with the system Friday Night to Monday Morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Front has pretty much stalled over me. Mid 60s on the south side of town and mid 50s on north side. I am at 60. My town is only 5,000 people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Oh how I wish we could lock in the 0Z GFS for 2 weeks from today... Course that'll never happen but it's nice to look at for now anyways lol.... brings in a great winter storm for the DFW area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 12z gives us multiple chances. all of them close calls but I like that look better than one fantasy land bomb over our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 At least the pattern looks to stay active over the next couple of weeks. Not a lot of cold but maybe a system gets timed up just right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Oh well worst case it's lots of moisture to give the lakes a head start on Spring.. Do like having this active pattern though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 For anyone curious, the Jamstec did trend wetter for some areas in the Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Looks like the Jamstec is going drier and warmer than the December run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 What kind of skill does the JAMSTEC have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Hide your eyes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 I'm not sure how skillful the Jamstec is really. JB likes it in El Ninos. When I look at it, it seems to show some skill for precip in the SW (AZ/NM/CO/UT) but less so for temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 The SPC has put out a slight risk for severe weather in mid-Texas tomorrow. Some NAM forecast soundings west of San Saba at 00z Monday (36 hrs) show 1000 J/kg of CAPE, 59 kt effective shear, 410 m2/s2 effective SRH. Convection-allowing models all seem to have a squall line around San Angelo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 5% TOR probs central texas ..SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS A MODIFYING WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN TX WILL ATTEMPT TO ADVANCE NORTH AS A SWATH OF 35-50 KT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLIES PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, AND FURTHER STRENGTHEN TONIGHT. MODEL MEAN MIXING RATIOS APPEAR TOO MOIST COMPARED TO 12Z DEL RIO AND CORPUS CHRISTI OBSERVED SOUNDINGS. IN ADDITION, A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR MASS, REINFORCED BY ONGOING AND ADDITIONAL ELEVATED CONVECTION TODAY, SHOULD LIMIT THE NORTHWEST ADVANCEMENT OF THE WARM SECTOR TO PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX. LARGEST BUOYANCY WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG MLCAPE SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU WHERE AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED. SURFACE-BASED STORMS APPEAR MOST LIKELY TO FORM ACROSS THE PECOS VALLEY IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL DCVA/HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE DESTABILIZING NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE MODIFIED WARM SECTOR. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD FURTHER EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST, WITH AN EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE PROBABLE BY LATE EVENING FROM PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL OK THROUGH CENTRAL TX. 30-50 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU, WHERE CONVECTION WOULD SEEMINGLY HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO REMAIN DISCRETE, MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE VEER-BACK-VEER VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE HODOGRAPH AROUND 700 MB. THIS MAY TEMPER A GREATER TORNADO RISK FROM BEING REALIZED. FARTHER NORTHEAST ALONG THE RED RIVER, WHERE MODE SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY LINEAR WITH TIME, THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS HOW FAR NORTH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND A CORRESPONDING DAMAGING WIND/BRIEF TORNADO RISK WILL EXTEND INTO OK TONIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 My concern level is going up for this evening in the Big Country into North Texas. Several high-res models start popping off storms near the warm front. If the HRRR is correct the highest threat will be around the D/FW Metroplex in the middle of a playoff game. Others are a bit further south and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Looks like lack of low level instability could keep this from being a more significant event. Think SPC might upgrade the DFW area later today, if there are any signs of increasing low level instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 latest SPC outlook kickoff at 2140z game should be over by 0115z or so....unless there is a weather delay (lightning) ..PORTIONS OF TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA MID/LATE MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EAST/NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING UPPER LOW NEARING THE EL PASO/FAR WEST TX VICINITY. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD AND INCREASINGLY TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, 30-45 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS (1-3 KM ABOVE GROUND LEVEL) WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT A SEASONALLY MOIST AIR MASS NORTHWARD, WITH LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO REACH PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX LATE TODAY, WHILE SOME MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL REACH PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX/HILL COUNTRY. PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND CONTINUED CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT CAST SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION LATER TODAY, PARTICULARLY WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TX AND FAR SOUTHERN OK. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT INCREASINGLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY AROUND MID-AFTERNOON INITIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX IN VICINITY OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. THE MOST NUMEROUS STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING SHOULD OCCUR NEAR THE EASTWARD-ADVANCING FRONT ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TX. HOWEVER, SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODEST CAPPING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME FRONT-PRECEDING SURFACE-BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY VICINITIES TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. GIVEN THAT DEEP-LAYER/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH EARLY EVENING, BOTH INITIAL SEMI-DISCRETE/LINE-EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN INCREASINGLY PROMINENT LINEAR MODE NEAR THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. BOUTS OF LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WEST TX THIS AFTERNOON, BUT DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD BECOME THE PRIMARY RISKS INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS A LARGE PART OF WEST-CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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