bubba hotep Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 FWD has updated low temps. They keep DFW out of the single digits for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 53 minutes ago, bubba hotep said: My point forecast low is 13F and we are now down to 15F with clear skies and little wind. My freaking station died two days ago. Argggh.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Well Gfs says adios winter thoughts for now.. Does keep the active pattern going tho.. Maybe la nina is breaking down.. Glad to have a system to look at tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Already down to 17 here before midnight with clear skies and a 10 dp. Wind is 10mph though but it out of the N so while not ideal radiationally it will continue cold air advection and promote lowering dps. Record low in Tyler is the 15 for the 6th which won't be missed by much and 13 for the 7th. Not sure Tyler can make 13 but a close call is possible. So much for the low 20s forecast from earlier today. Update: 14/11 early this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Denton is at 8 degrees. DFW is at 17. I don't think DFW will ever see single digits again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 We need some help but the Euro isn't too far off from a big winter storm. I'll gladly take a solid soaking but will be trying will a winter storm for N. Texas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 2 hours ago, Quixotic1 said: Denton is at 8 degrees. DFW is at 17. I don't think DFW will ever see single digits again. DFW actually for sure hit 15°F, but may have hit 14°F. Waiting on confirmation on that. It is possible for DFW to hit single digits again, I can't explain the 21 year streak though. Statistics say this should happen every four years. Don't forget that we hit -1°F in December 1989 and statistics say we should fall below zero about every 30 years. We haven't seen an cold air mass of that magnitude since. Should it happen again, we definitely would hit the single digits. Had we gotten an inch of snow yesterday, I'm sure we would have fallen to the 10 to 12 degree range. Had we hit 11°F it would have been the coldest in 21 years. UPDATE: The NWS confirmed the DFW Airport low this morning was 14°F, making for the coldest air since 2011. Also, we set a record low max yesterday of 27°F breaking the old record of 29°F set in 1970. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, bubba hotep said: We need some help but the Euro isn't too far off from a big winter storm. I'll gladly take a solid soaking but will be trying will a winter storm for N. Texas That eastern ridge looks too strong. If we can get that Arctic high underneath the ridge...all bets are off. The ECMWF is known to be too slow in that time range on Arctic air, and doesn't model well the cold air damming process which is clearly evident on the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 25 minutes ago, DFWWeather said: That eastern ridge looks too strong. If we can get that Arctic high underneath the ridge...all bets are off. The ECMWF is known to be too slow in that time range on Arctic air, and doesn't model well the cold air damming process which is clearly evident on the 0z run. Yes, the SE ridge is a big problem and that is why we don't typically see big cutoff low snow storms during a Nina. Maybe the pattern starts to shift and we have a better look in February but for now the SE ridge probably wins that battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 The GFS today is saying nope, keep dreaming.. But then again it lost yesterday for a while too so who knows what will happen. I think we need some help but it could happen, I'm still thinking Oklahoma/KS/ar right now, but it's still watchable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 One thing in our favor is the cold has been overperforming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 12Z Euro says, hold on it's gonna be CLOSE next weekend. At least something to watch. Arctic air, and precip! The last front did just plow thru the SE ridge giving the SE a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 ^ that is VERY close, closer than I thought really, worth close watching over the next few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 18z GFS would make for an icy Saturday morning via an overrunning situation just se of DFW before slamming Louisiana and Arkansas with ice. If we blended the GFS and euro looks like dfw is near the sweet spot. I'd keep an eye on it over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Amazing what snow and clouds can do up here, was supposed to be near 50F today, never got about 36F. Lows have finally been in the teens in Albuquerque. Got down to -33F this morning in Angel Fire (8600 feet up) - pretty cold even up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 The 12z Para-GFS has got it as well. The 12z Euro EPS trended towards the operational, the 00z wasn't as supportive of a big system. About 1/5 of the EPS members make up a dry cluster but the rest have some version of the storm. Latest from FWD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Yeah.. The para Gfs is a LOT of sleet though... Cobblestone ice 2.0 probably.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 First look at Gfs, it's going to be very very icy for a good chunk of Texas, SLAMS Arkansas though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, jhamps10 said: First look at Gfs, it's going to be very very icy for a good chunk of Texas, SLAMS Arkansas though Looks to be trending towards the Euro with a big cutoff low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Actually looking at qpf that's a LOT of ice here in DFW, a good 1.5-2" of qpf.. I imagine some of this is sleet but still a lot of freezing rain too.. Very well could bring power outages and the like on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Factor in cold air bleeding in farther than modeled and this is borderline disastrous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 11 minutes ago, bubba hotep said: Factor in cold air bleeding in farther than modeled and this is borderline disastrous Actually as it is that is disastrous, there's a lot of freezing rain that tropical tidbits doesn't show, I'm in my iPhone so I can't post the pic but pivotal weather shows freezing rain amounts of over 1" for most of the metroplex.. That would be a major disaster here, and let's be honest, would risk the Cowboys game from happening Sunday (IF the model verifies of course) but we are a far far ways out on this, but I would expect the nws to mention this in the afd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 6 hours ago, raindancewx said: Amazing what snow and clouds can do up here, was supposed to be near 50F today, never got about 36F. Lows have finally been in the teens in Albuquerque. Got down to -33F this morning in Angel Fire (8600 feet up) - pretty cold even up there. Angel Fire can get incredibly cold, one of the coldest places in the lower levels 48 often. It's good to see the snow pack really start to build. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Well, that looks a bit too warm for now to get that happens for the metro. With that being said, this might be the only time I do not wish it verifies because I will be flying back to DFW on Saturday night... But we're 6 days out. Things may change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 12 minutes ago, vwgrrc said: Well, that looks a bit too warm for now to get that happens for the metro. With that being said, this might be the only time I do not wish it verifies because I will be flying back to DFW on Saturday night... But we're 6 days out. Things may change Agreed, I'm not saying prep for major storm at this point but need to keep a close eye because this and what the 12z euro shows are similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captmorg70 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Here is a pic of the freezing rain off of pivotal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Here is a pic of the freezing rain off of pivotal.Oh mine... What exact time frame will that fall for the metropolex？Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 The 0z ECMWF has backed way off on the cold air resulting in nothing more than a cold rain for this event for nearly all of North Texas. It even loses the connection to deep Arctic air. Not impressed with this run at all. 6z GFS is also backing off on the cold air with all frozen precipitation west of the Metroplex during the entire event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 2 hours ago, DFWWeather said: The 0z ECMWF has backed way off on the cold air resulting in nothing more than a cold rain for this event for nearly all of North Texas. It even loses the connection to deep Arctic air. Not impressed with this run at all. 6z GFS is also backing off on the cold air with all frozen precipitation west of the Metroplex during the entire event. The OP Euro is on the cold side of guidance in the 00z Euro package and has been the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 13 and 15 the last two mornings. Pretty good consistency between the major models on an ice storm from N TX to the Great Lakes. This watch the surface high up north because there is some very cold air to be trapped in the Siberia. Remember that before this outbreak turned out so cold it was the next one that had been the one that we expected extreme cold from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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