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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 8


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1 minute ago, Quixotic1 said:

A dusting is the most I've seen since March 2015.  Already better than last year.

heh, exactly what I was thinking, this matches up with the snow burst from last winter already for Ft Worth. That one was weird, you could literally see the snowcover from Parker county from my office downtown, yet here in the city barely a dusting

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30 minutes ago, bubba hotep said:

This band is looking decent, the graupel could be an indication that instability is increasing as the base of the trough swings through. We officially have a dusting at my place. 

C1gsKRMXUAIiv60.jpg

487 
FXUS64 KFWD 061955
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
145 PM CST Fri Jan 6 2017

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Clear case of CSI enhanced snowfall occurring over the northern half
of the DFW metroplex with radar showing the classic banded
appearance. The enhanced instability across the DFW area is forecast
to rapidly diminish and shift eastward by 3 pm, but these bands are
going to drop near a quarter inch of accumulating snowfall across
the northern half of the DFW Metroplex and into Hunt and Hopkins
counties and have updated the forecast to reflect that.  So far
impacts from this snow have been minimal in the DFW area, as cold
pavement temperatures are allowing the light fluffy snow to blow to
the sides of the street. With the increasing stability and
decreasing moisture in the snow production layer, the intensity of
this snow will wane to just flurries over the DFW area and end
altogether by mid-late afternoon. TR.92
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Looking ahead, I'm thinking Next Weekend could be something to watch for possible winter potential.. I'm thinking more Oklahoma than Texas right now, as the models aren't wanting to have the cold air this far south, however it's something to keep an eye on. At least the models show activity instead of dryness

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14 minutes ago, jhamps10 said:

heh, exactly what I was thinking, this matches up with the snow burst from last winter already for Ft Worth. That one was weird, you could literally see the snowcover from Parker county from my office downtown, yet here in the city barely a dusting

When was that event?  December 26th of 2015?  

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The kids here got a snow day because the dusting to 2 inches of snow came when it was 15-20F so it stuck to the roads. If any of you Texans want to ski, these are amazing numbers for a La Nina here - although the Gila Wilderness needs some help. Have a theory they may do well in Feb/Mar though.

 

New Mexico Snow Pack 1.3.17 Update.jpg

New Mexico Snow Pack 1.6.17 Update.PNG

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https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/indicators/sst.php  Looks like the La Nina did weaken in December by this measure btw.

Niño Regions Sea Surface Temperatures

Last 12 Months
MONTH NIÑO 1+2 NIÑO 3 NIÑO 4 NIÑO 3.4
TEMP ANOM TEMP ANOM TEMP ANOM TEMP ANOM
January 2016 25.93°C
(78.67°F)
1.41°C
(2.54°F)
28.21°C
(82.78°F)
2.58°C
(4.64°F)
29.65°C
(85.37°F)
1.35°C
(2.43°F)
29.17°C
(84.51°F)
2.60°C
(4.68°F)
February 2016 26.81°C
(80.26°F)
0.67°C
(1.21°F)
28.36°C
(83.05°F)
1.99°C
(3.58°F)
29.55°C
(85.19°F)
1.45°C
(2.61°F)
29.12°C
(84.42°F)
2.40°C
(4.32°F)
March 2016 27.57°C
(81.63°F)
0.93°C
(1.67°F)
28.70°C
(83.66°F)
1.57°C
(2.83°F)
29.53°C
(85.15°F)
1.34°C
(2.41°F)
28.90°C
(84.02°F)
1.68°C
(3.02°F)
April 2016 25.83°C
(78.49°F)
0.23°C
(0.41°F)
28.34°C
(83.01°F)
0.84°C
(1.51°F)
29.39°C
(84.90°F)
0.89°C
(1.60°F)
28.87°C
(83.97°F)
1.09°C
(1.96°F)
May 2016 24.55°C
(76.19°F)
0.27°C
(0.49°F)
27.11°C
(80.80°F)
0.03°C
(0.05°F)
29.39°C
(84.90°F)
0.60°C
(1.08°F)
28.15°C
(82.67°F)
0.30°C
(0.54°F)
June 2016 23.17°C
(73.71°F)
0.29°C
(0.52°F)
26.31°C
(79.36°F)
-0.12°C
(-0.22°F)
29.36°C
(84.85°F)
0.52°C
(0.94°F)
27.53°C
(81.55°F)
-0.12°C
(-0.22°F)
July 2016 21.79°C
(71.22°F)
0.17°C
(0.31°F)
25.14°C
(77.25°F)
-0.48°C
(-0.86°F)
29.06°C
(84.31°F)
0.26°C
(0.47°F)
26.73°C
(80.11°F)
-0.49°C
(-0.88°F)
August 2016 21.03°C
(69.85°F)
0.39°C
(0.70°F)
24.53°C
(76.15°F)
-0.46°C
(-0.83°F)
28.68°C
(83.62°F)
0.00°C
(0.00°F)
26.28°C
(79.30°F)
-0.54°C
(-0.97°F)
September 2016 20.87°C
(69.57°F)
0.53°C
(0.95°F)
24.67°C
(76.41°F)
-0.18°C
(-0.32°F)
28.48°C
(83.26°F)
-0.21°C
(-0.38°F)
26.11°C
(79.00°F)
-0.61°C
(-1.10°F)
October 2016 21.18°C
(70.12°F)
0.39°C
(0.70°F)
24.47°C
(76.05°F)
-0.45°C
(-0.81°F)
28.26°C
(82.87°F)
-0.40°C
(-0.72°F)
25.96°C
(78.73°F)
-0.73°C
(-1.31°F)
November 2016 21.68°C
(71.02°F)
0.09°C
(0.16°F)
24.58°C
(76.24°F)
-0.40°C
(-0.72°F)
28.27°C
(82.89°F)
-0.37°C
(-0.67°F)
26.10°C
(78.98°F)
-0.55°C
(-0.99°F)
December 2016 23.25°C
(73.85°F)
0.43°C
(0.77°F)
24.75°C
(76.55°F)
-0.39°C
(-0.70°F)
28.35°C
(83.03°F)
-0.14°C
(-0.25°F)
26.15°C
(79.07°F)
-0.42°C
(-0.76°F)
Dec - Nov
Difference
1.57°C 0.34°C 0.17°C 0.01°C 0.08°C 0.23°C 0.05°C 0.13°C
2.83°F 0.61°F 0.31°F 0.02°F 0.14°F 0.41°F 0.09°F 0.23°F
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23 minutes ago, jhamps10 said:

So, raise your hand if your commute home took more than an hour more than it should have.... *raises hands* seriously, we can't even handle a dusting of snow in ft worth.... Seesh... 

Just got back from a 2 hour drive home, which normally takes 20 minutes...

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Models have been playing catchup with this cold shot for MBY. Strato snow is now in play, I think. Cold is stronger, earlier than forecasted, plus is drizzling, which most models didn't show. To be fair, drizzle is usually not well forecasted. Not saying there will be any accumulation, qpf is going to be meager, but maybe some surprise dusting in the morning...not bad considering we are almost 2 years since last subfreezing temp.

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2 hours ago, Quixotic1 said:

I saw the para had a rain to snow event.  Maybe we can thread the needle like the southeast did.

Maybe so, I still think that this one may be more an Oklahoma Icestorm, but it could thread the needle.. Moisture vs the cold air just like most winter setups can be here lol 

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7 minutes ago, jhamps10 said:

Maybe so, I still think that this one may be more an Oklahoma Icestorm, but it could thread the needle.. Moisture vs the cold air just like most winter setups can be here lol 

Here is the 18z GFS. I'll be glad to have another system to track but am really interested in seeing if maybe this is the la nina pattern starting to break down some. We had legit storms earlier in the week, snow today and models look to keep things somewhat active. 

gfs_asnow_scus_41.pngo

 

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