Quixotic1 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 A dusting is the most I've seen since March 2015. Already better than last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I think we can almost call this a "bust". It is virtually blizzard condition here in Downtown Dallas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Quixotic1 said: A dusting is the most I've seen since March 2015. Already better than last year. heh, exactly what I was thinking, this matches up with the snow burst from last winter already for Ft Worth. That one was weird, you could literally see the snowcover from Parker county from my office downtown, yet here in the city barely a dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 30 minutes ago, bubba hotep said: This band is looking decent, the graupel could be an indication that instability is increasing as the base of the trough swings through. We officially have a dusting at my place. 487 FXUS64 KFWD 061955 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 145 PM CST Fri Jan 6 2017 .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Clear case of CSI enhanced snowfall occurring over the northern half of the DFW metroplex with radar showing the classic banded appearance. The enhanced instability across the DFW area is forecast to rapidly diminish and shift eastward by 3 pm, but these bands are going to drop near a quarter inch of accumulating snowfall across the northern half of the DFW Metroplex and into Hunt and Hopkins counties and have updated the forecast to reflect that. So far impacts from this snow have been minimal in the DFW area, as cold pavement temperatures are allowing the light fluffy snow to blow to the sides of the street. With the increasing stability and decreasing moisture in the snow production layer, the intensity of this snow will wane to just flurries over the DFW area and end altogether by mid-late afternoon. TR.92 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Decently light snow now in Keller area. A dusting finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 13 minutes ago, Quixotic1 said: Game isn't over yet! Your strategy of get the cold in place first works out again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Forecast high today was 26. Sitting at 21 with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, bubba hotep said: Your strategy of get the cold in place first works out again! Hey I try! My wife complains when I'm wrong and I always say "do you see 4 feet of snow out there? That means I don't control it." Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Looking ahead, I'm thinking Next Weekend could be something to watch for possible winter potential.. I'm thinking more Oklahoma than Texas right now, as the models aren't wanting to have the cold air this far south, however it's something to keep an eye on. At least the models show activity instead of dryness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 14 minutes ago, jhamps10 said: heh, exactly what I was thinking, this matches up with the snow burst from last winter already for Ft Worth. That one was weird, you could literally see the snowcover from Parker county from my office downtown, yet here in the city barely a dusting When was that event? December 26th of 2015? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, bubba hotep said: Forecast high today was 26. Sitting at 21 with snow. The forecast high today so far at DFW has been 27°F, so that was a good forecast. If this holds, which it will, then that means we set a record cold high as the old was 29°F set in 1970. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Quixotic1 said: When was that event? December 26th of 2015? December 27th into the 28th I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 hour ago, jhamps10 said: December 27th into the 28th I believe Oh yes. I was in downtown dallas and nothing stuck. Heard we had a dusting at the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Snow! Or at least flurries in the Lindale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 So, raise your hand if your commute home took more than an hour more than it should have.... *raises hands* seriously, we can't even handle a dusting of snow in ft worth.... Seesh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 The kids here got a snow day because the dusting to 2 inches of snow came when it was 15-20F so it stuck to the roads. If any of you Texans want to ski, these are amazing numbers for a La Nina here - although the Gila Wilderness needs some help. Have a theory they may do well in Feb/Mar though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 HRRR is up to something funny! Hard to tell from that image but it gets DFW to 7F and MBY to 3F... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Finally seeing a couple flurries here and there in Tyler. Not going to get anything more than this it looks like. Congrats to you guys in DFW with the dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/indicators/sst.php Looks like the La Nina did weaken in December by this measure btw. Niño Regions Sea Surface Temperatures Last 12 Months MONTH NIÑO 1+2 NIÑO 3 NIÑO 4 NIÑO 3.4 TEMP ANOM TEMP ANOM TEMP ANOM TEMP ANOM January 2016 25.93°C (78.67°F) 1.41°C (2.54°F) 28.21°C (82.78°F) 2.58°C (4.64°F) 29.65°C (85.37°F) 1.35°C (2.43°F) 29.17°C (84.51°F) 2.60°C (4.68°F) February 2016 26.81°C (80.26°F) 0.67°C (1.21°F) 28.36°C (83.05°F) 1.99°C (3.58°F) 29.55°C (85.19°F) 1.45°C (2.61°F) 29.12°C (84.42°F) 2.40°C (4.32°F) March 2016 27.57°C (81.63°F) 0.93°C (1.67°F) 28.70°C (83.66°F) 1.57°C (2.83°F) 29.53°C (85.15°F) 1.34°C (2.41°F) 28.90°C (84.02°F) 1.68°C (3.02°F) April 2016 25.83°C (78.49°F) 0.23°C (0.41°F) 28.34°C (83.01°F) 0.84°C (1.51°F) 29.39°C (84.90°F) 0.89°C (1.60°F) 28.87°C (83.97°F) 1.09°C (1.96°F) May 2016 24.55°C (76.19°F) 0.27°C (0.49°F) 27.11°C (80.80°F) 0.03°C (0.05°F) 29.39°C (84.90°F) 0.60°C (1.08°F) 28.15°C (82.67°F) 0.30°C (0.54°F) June 2016 23.17°C (73.71°F) 0.29°C (0.52°F) 26.31°C (79.36°F) -0.12°C (-0.22°F) 29.36°C (84.85°F) 0.52°C (0.94°F) 27.53°C (81.55°F) -0.12°C (-0.22°F) July 2016 21.79°C (71.22°F) 0.17°C (0.31°F) 25.14°C (77.25°F) -0.48°C (-0.86°F) 29.06°C (84.31°F) 0.26°C (0.47°F) 26.73°C (80.11°F) -0.49°C (-0.88°F) August 2016 21.03°C (69.85°F) 0.39°C (0.70°F) 24.53°C (76.15°F) -0.46°C (-0.83°F) 28.68°C (83.62°F) 0.00°C (0.00°F) 26.28°C (79.30°F) -0.54°C (-0.97°F) September 2016 20.87°C (69.57°F) 0.53°C (0.95°F) 24.67°C (76.41°F) -0.18°C (-0.32°F) 28.48°C (83.26°F) -0.21°C (-0.38°F) 26.11°C (79.00°F) -0.61°C (-1.10°F) October 2016 21.18°C (70.12°F) 0.39°C (0.70°F) 24.47°C (76.05°F) -0.45°C (-0.81°F) 28.26°C (82.87°F) -0.40°C (-0.72°F) 25.96°C (78.73°F) -0.73°C (-1.31°F) November 2016 21.68°C (71.02°F) 0.09°C (0.16°F) 24.58°C (76.24°F) -0.40°C (-0.72°F) 28.27°C (82.89°F) -0.37°C (-0.67°F) 26.10°C (78.98°F) -0.55°C (-0.99°F) December 2016 23.25°C (73.85°F) 0.43°C (0.77°F) 24.75°C (76.55°F) -0.39°C (-0.70°F) 28.35°C (83.03°F) -0.14°C (-0.25°F) 26.15°C (79.07°F) -0.42°C (-0.76°F) Dec - Nov Difference 1.57°C 0.34°C 0.17°C 0.01°C 0.08°C 0.23°C 0.05°C 0.13°C 2.83°F 0.61°F 0.31°F 0.02°F 0.14°F 0.41°F 0.09°F 0.23°F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 23 minutes ago, jhamps10 said: So, raise your hand if your commute home took more than an hour more than it should have.... *raises hands* seriously, we can't even handle a dusting of snow in ft worth.... Seesh... Just got back from a 2 hour drive home, which normally takes 20 minutes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I think we are going to get another crack or three at it this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 19 minutes ago, bubba hotep said: HRRR is up to something funny! Hard to tell from that image but it gets DFW to 7F and MBY to 3F... Think it's initializing with too much snow cover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 8 minutes ago, Quixotic1 said: I think we are going to get another crack or three at it this winter. Yeah I agree, models show a slim chance next weekend in fact, maybe more likely for Oklahoma and Arkansas but we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 hour ago, jhamps10 said: Yeah I agree, models show a slim chance next weekend in fact, maybe more likely for Oklahoma and Arkansas but we will see I saw the para had a rain to snow event. Maybe we can thread the needle like the southeast did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 7, 2017 Author Share Posted January 7, 2017 Models have been playing catchup with this cold shot for MBY. Strato snow is now in play, I think. Cold is stronger, earlier than forecasted, plus is drizzling, which most models didn't show. To be fair, drizzle is usually not well forecasted. Not saying there will be any accumulation, qpf is going to be meager, but maybe some surprise dusting in the morning...not bad considering we are almost 2 years since last subfreezing temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 My point forecast low is 13F and we are now down to 15F with clear skies and little wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Hard Freeze Warning issued for the northern counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 2 hours ago, Quixotic1 said: I saw the para had a rain to snow event. Maybe we can thread the needle like the southeast did. Maybe so, I still think that this one may be more an Oklahoma Icestorm, but it could thread the needle.. Moisture vs the cold air just like most winter setups can be here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, jhamps10 said: Maybe so, I still think that this one may be more an Oklahoma Icestorm, but it could thread the needle.. Moisture vs the cold air just like most winter setups can be here lol Here is the 18z GFS. I'll be glad to have another system to track but am really interested in seeing if maybe this is the la nina pattern starting to break down some. We had legit storms earlier in the week, snow today and models look to keep things somewhat active. o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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