bubba hotep Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Pretty nice shift in the SREF this evening. I like to use a SREF blend of DFW and PRX for MBY. The trend at DFW today and the 21z PRX plume both look encouraging: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Hard to argue with FWD, but they are probably playing the conservative side. I would move the Trace - 0.5" line down to b/w McKinney and Dallas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Don't fail me now HRRR! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captmorg70 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Yea I agree they may be a bit conservative. Though this setup seems rather tricky. It seems that it really comes down to how much moisture is there when we have better forcing and how quickly it dries out. I kinda miss the storms where we're worried about the cold instead... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, Captmorg70 said: Yea I agree they may be a bit conservative. Though this setup seems rather tricky. It seems that it really comes down to how much moisture is there when we have better forcing and how quickly it dries out. I kinda miss the storms where we're worried about the cold instead... Last year was obviously a massive bust but the last few years prior we always seemed to have at least one system that wasn't supposed to do anything turn out to be an 1" or more. I remember one that ended up being thunder snow and nearly 2", forecast the night before was for cold and cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 33 minutes ago, bubba hotep said: Last year was obviously a massive bust but the last few years prior we always seemed to have at least one system that wasn't supposed to do anything turn out to be an 1" or more. I remember one that ended up being thunder snow and nearly 2", forecast the night before was for cold and cloudy. The bigger positive busts have been due to troughs/short waves slowing down. Don't forget the cold. Higher ratios could help push us over 1". Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 36 minutes ago, Quixotic1 said: The bigger positive busts have been due to troughs/short waves slowing down. Don't forget the cold. Higher ratios could help push us over 1". Haha Ratios will be great. I would rather watch flurries than watch rain while waiting for the warm layer to give up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I went for a walk once it started snowing here. It completely froze to my beard and I had little snow icicles coming down my face. New for me. We had borderline Blue Norther conditions - 45F at midnight to 16F at 4 am. 2-3 inches of snow on the ground, 1-2 on the road since it was 16-20F when most of it fell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Anyone getting flurries? NWS Fort Worth @NWSFortWorth 6m6 minutes ago 7:55 AM: Getting several reports of snow flurries scattered across the Metroplex, and a few reports of drizzle in the south. #dfwwx #ctxwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 10 minutes ago, bubba hotep said: Anyone getting flurries? NWS Fort Worth @NWSFortWorth 6m6 minutes ago 7:55 AM: Getting several reports of snow flurries scattered across the Metroplex, and a few reports of drizzle in the south. #dfwwx #ctxwx I can confirm snow flurries in Arlington and Hust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 MPING map is lighting up over DFW with snow reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Flurries in north Fort Worth. A bit of a surprise this early. We have to go to Abilene tomorrow, so while I want a surprise decent snow after not seeing anything last winter really, I don't want too much. Lol We can reschedule if needed luckily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Saw some flakes at Lebanon and DNT in Frisco about 20 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Had flakes when I was walking out the door in SW Arlington, drove through a decent sized burst on 20 near the East loop 820 merge.. NBC5 is saying that this is Lake Effect off of Lake Grapevine... Not sure I'm buying that but okay whatever. Getting some light flurries now at my office in Downtown Ft Worth, hard to tell since I'm 33 stories up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 26 minutes ago, jhamps10 said: Had flakes when I was walking out the door in SW Arlington, drove through a decent sized burst on 20 near the East loop 820 merge.. NBC5 is saying that this is Lake Effect off of Lake Grapevine... Not sure I'm buying that but okay whatever. Getting some light flurries now at my office in Downtown Ft Worth, hard to tell since I'm 33 stories up I can buy the lake effect idea with NE winds off of the lakes and temps in the low 20s. Lake effect snow is not as rare as you would think when temps get this low with wind blowing decently around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 hour ago, jhamps10 said: Had flakes when I was walking out the door in SW Arlington, drove through a decent sized burst on 20 near the East loop 820 merge.. NBC5 is saying that this is Lake Effect off of Lake Grapevine... Not sure I'm buying that but okay whatever. Getting some light flurries now at my office in Downtown Ft Worth, hard to tell since I'm 33 stories up 34 minutes ago, aggiegeog said: I can buy the lake effect idea with NE winds off of the lakes and temps in the low 20s. Lake effect snow is not as rare as you would think when temps get this low with wind blowing decently around here. The radar returns are lining up pretty well with Lake Ray Roberts, Lewisville Lake, and Grapevine Lake. Lake effect snow in DFW... who'da thunk it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, cstrunk said: The radar returns are lining up pretty well with Lake Ray Roberts, Lewisville Lake, and Grapevine Lake. Lake effect snow in DFW... who'da thunk it? I think we had some around here with the early March 2014 storm the morning after we had a few inches of sleet it was in the teens with flurries and breezy winds. We don't have as big of lakes around here as DFW does though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Latest HRRR run is trying to get some snow for DFW, esp. the northern burbs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Light snow here just south of Prosper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 902 FXUS64 KFWD 061745 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1145 AM CST Fri Jan 6 2017 .MESOSCALE UPDATE... This section is a technical discussion of the dynamics for winter precipitation to point out the features we are watching closely through the afternoon. The forecast remains on track. See earlier update for that type of forecast information. Precipitation is continuing north of I-20 as the upper level shortwave trough approaches. This is causing frontogenetical lift to increase near 700 mb which is the critical layer for precipitation in this event. Parcels lifted near 700 mb are in a region characterized by weak convective instability (CI) or conditional symmetric instability (CSI) as depicted by EPV* charts. The strongest frontogenesis at 700 mb coincides very well with the location of a band of heavier snow from roughly Lawton, OK to Hobbs, NM. This band is tracking southeast, along with the best frontogenesis forcing, and therefore we can use 700 mb frontogenesis forecasts as a proxy for the location of heavier snows. While a radar loop would imply that this band will be tracking through North Texas around mid afternoon, there a couple of factors that will cause this precipitation to weaken. The first being that all models forecast the frontogenetical lift at 700 mb will begin to weaken by mid to late afternoon. The second more important reason is that rapid drying is forecast to occur near and above 700 mb around 2 or 3 pm from west to east over North Texas. This will obviously limit the moisture for significant precipitation but it will also result in increasing stability aloft that will end potential for CI/CSI. We should see the impact of this dry air with radar echoes clearing out rapidly from west to east across the CWA between 2 pm and 5 pm. If we don't start seeing an erosion of these echoes by 3 pm in our western counties, it will be because the models likely have miss-diagnosed the amount of dry air. This would result in slightly higher amounts of snow along and north of I-20, but even in this case we're talking only a half inch more than currently forecast. TR.92 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 it's coming down at a decent clip now in downtown Ft Worth... it's no "flurries" like the news said lol... it's sticking to the sides of bridges crossing the trinity river Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captmorg70 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 starting to get a nice dusting here in Denton. Looks like the HRRR is starting to pick up on the dry air though. Last 2 runs have dried up fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 This band is looking decent, the graupel could be an indication that instability is increasing as the base of the trough swings through. We officially have a dusting at my place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I'm getting dry slotted! Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, Quixotic1 said: I'm getting dry slotted! Haha You're still sitting better than us in East TX! Wintry precip to our SE and NW... Nada here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Snow on road in Downtown Dallas. This is really a lot heavier than foretasted! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, cstrunk said: You're still sitting better than us in East TX! Wintry precip to our SE and NW... Nada here. It's almost here! Moving into Kaufman & Van Zandt county now! Fingers crossed! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, cstrunk said: You're still sitting better than us in East TX! Wintry precip to our SE and NW... Nada here. It looks like it will make it at least to areas north of I-20 though hoping it makes it to Tyler. I am considering heading home early to Hideaway so i am on the N side of I-20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 8 minutes ago, cstrunk said: You're still sitting better than us in East TX! Wintry precip to our SE and NW... Nada here. Game isn't over yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Looks like Bridges and overpasses are starting to get slick, (Or people are taking no chances) but traffic is crawling on the 7th street bridge here in Ft Worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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