Roy Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 NWS doesn't even mention it in the official forecast for Friday. I'm hoping, but it's clear whatever does happen will be very minor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 31 minutes ago, Quixotic1 said: Meh. It doesn't take much. Assuming 10:1 ratio a tenth or two of liquid precip would be nice. Yep, with the whole column subfreezing it wont take much for a dusting to an inch in N TX. Hoping that the Euro begins to trend to the other models, but I think that areas E of I-35 generally near I-20 will at least get some snow between Friday afternoon and Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 15 minutes ago, Roy said: NWS doesn't even mention it in the official forecast for Friday. I'm hoping, but it's clear whatever does happen will be very minor. the update earlier mentioned possible changes in the afternoon package. They seem to believe run to run consistency and how many models are predicting snow out weighs the typical superiority of the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 14 minutes ago, aggiegeog said: Yep, with the whole column subfreezing it wont take much for a dusting to an inch in N TX. Hoping that the Euro begins to trend to the other models, but I think that areas E of I-35 generally near I-20 will at least get some snow between Friday afternoon and Saturday morning. Well, if it ain't us, I hope it's somewhere near by or further south. I'm really jonesing for flakes though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 After the massive spike in November, the PDO has weakened quite a bit in December according to NOAA. Will be good seeing the JISAO value in a few weeks. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/ Expecting the AMO to drop too, not a whole lot of months like Nov 2016 where it reached >=0.400 https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.long.data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 3 hours ago, Quixotic1 said: Well, if it ain't us, I hope it's somewhere near by or further south. I'm really jonesing for flakes though. IMBY or bust! We've scored on some of these marginal setups in the recent past. I still think we'll see plenty of model shifting, with two of the main players still several days away. It's just that the shifting will probably be between nothing and maybe an inch, not a lot of room Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorMu Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Hoping for a miracle as far south as College Station. It might take the coastal low to dust us. (sorry DFW gang). 2010 was the last frozen stuff that stuck. Expecting a mix though Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 For anyone curious - the Oct/Nov/Dec ONI value remained constant at -0.8C. Just updated. It's a weak La Nina, but not "borderline" really. Was a little surprised it didn't weaken to -0.6C/-0.7C http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 6 hours ago, raindancewx said: After the massive spike in November, the PDO has weakened quite a bit in December according to NOAA. Will be good seeing the JISAO value in a few weeks. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/ Expecting the AMO to drop too, not a whole lot of months like Nov 2016 where it reached >=0.400 https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.long.data I prefer the JISAO data and see it widely used, honestly, I rarely see anyone use the NOAA numbers for PDO. It's not surprising that this La Nina event failed given how warm the overall Pacific was. I don't think there were any analogs with a strongly positive PDO and a medium/strong La Nina. However, the atmospheric response has certainly been more ninaish than I expected given the weak and short lived look. MEI rose from -0.379 to -0.212 and the corresponding '98 numbers were -0.973 and -1.05. Hopefully, this a sign that a wetter Spring might set in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Sometimes I think the MEI/ONI are too focused on the actual observed values. I think the "weather" we experience may in fact be more determined by the change in the base state year over year in the winter. Going from an ONI of +2.2C to -0.7C or whatever it ends up at for DJF is one of the greatest year over year falls in the history of the ONI index, and the years with the big drop offs here behave very La Nina-y here. The handful of weak La Ninas or Neutrals that come after a very strong La Nina here are actually pretty decent winters a lot of the time, 1943, 1974, 2011 and a few others come to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorMu Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 GEM has single digits in DFW area Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 European thinks New Mexico does pretty well with the next storm. Would be 1-4" for Albuquerque. I start to trust the models for snow when they are within 72 hours, and this is essentially saying hours 60-66 are snowy for Albuquerque. NAM shows a boatload of snow too, but it only goes out to 60 hours. NAM actually tends to do pretty well with snow here. GFS isn't far off...just less snow in ABQ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 So, on a not so happy note, DFW has had one month of BN temps since May of 2015. That was May 2016. What a grueling stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 So, Bubba and I might get dusted. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 2:16 PM, aggiegeog said: Yep, with the whole column subfreezing it wont take much for a dusting to an inch in N TX. Hoping that the Euro begins to trend to the other models, but I think that areas E of I-35 generally near I-20 will at least get some snow between Friday afternoon and Saturday morning. Your thinking is right but looks like it's going to be even further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Features (surface high and low, 700mb vort, 500mb trough, etc) are trending just a bit stronger for Friday on the GFS. I think the overall idea of flurries over N TX trending to a dusting to an inch further east along I-20 on Friday is solid. Along with the early Friday 1-3" along and north of the Red River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 hour ago, Quixotic1 said: So, Bubba and I might get dusted. I'll take it. WPC has us almost in the 10% probability of 1" or greater band. 18z GFS was encouraging and Euro was a slight improvement. I'm thinking "car topper" to 0.5" for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 18z GFS with that oh so close 1" band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 It really wouldn't take much of a shift in the thermal gradient to get that banding down to N. Texas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 NWS ABQ call. I'm on board. WPC says my area of town (NE) has a non-zero (10-20%) shot at 4"+, but most likely we get 1-3" city wide or flurries to 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, raindancewx said: NWS ABQ call. I'm on board. WPC says my area of town (NE) has a non-zero (10-20%) shot at 4"+, but most likely we get 1-3" city wide or flurries to 2". I'm going to DC at the end of January and to Santa Fe in February. I hope that I luck out on snow on one of those trips, dial this storm up again in February! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, bubba hotep said: I'm going to DC at the end of January and to Santa Fe in February. I hope that I luck out on snow on one of those trips, dial this storm up again in February! One of these damned years it is going to snow a lot in the mountains in March like it supposed to, but I don't think it is this year, so Jan 20 - Feb 20 is kind of my target for big snow here this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 We are looking at three winter precip areas tomorrow in Texas. First one is trending north towards the I40 in OK and the Panhandle. It looks to produce around 6" in the Panhandle and a couple inches as you move into eastern OK. This could still trend back south towards the Red River, but I don't see much of this falling in N TX. This event is mainly early tomorrow. Second area falls tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. It looks to spread flurries to a dusting over N and E TX. Areas along I-30 in the NE TX could see up to a couple inches though as there is more moisture there. The third area is associated to the Gulf low which may throw some moisture into sub freezing air in inland SE TX in the form of sleet and maybe freezing rain late tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 00z Euro was 0.5" area wide with some locals up to 1" depending on ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 hour ago, aggiegeog said: We are looking at three winter precip areas tomorrow in Texas. First one is trending north towards the I40 in OK and the Panhandle. It looks to produce around 6" in the Panhandle and a couple inches as you move into eastern OK. This could still trend back south towards the Red River, but I don't see much of this falling in N TX. This event is mainly early tomorrow. Second area falls tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. It looks to spread flurries to a dusting over N and E TX. Areas along I-30 in the NE TX could see up to a couple inches though as there is more moisture there. The third area is associated to the Gulf low which may throw some moisture into sub freezing air in inland SE TX in the form of sleet and maybe freezing rain late tomorrow. One trend in N. Texas this past week or so has been for the models to be too dry in the lower levels. Does that hold for tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 38 minutes ago, bubba hotep said: One trend in N. Texas this past week or so has been for the models to be too dry in the lower levels. Does that hold for tomorrow? That's what I am hoping for, because ratios look good with a saturated sub 500mb dendritic growth zone. The I-30 corridor could do well if adequate moisture at the low levels makes it in. The Gulf low looks to cut off the moisture though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The northern NM mountains are looking at a couple feet at resort level through tomorrow and the peaks could see well over 3 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Looking at the Euro a bit more, it is slower to dry out the low levels. It looks a lot like the Texas Tech WRF were the flow at H7 is slower to turn allowing for better moisture to be in place as the better dynamics appear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 26 minutes ago, bubba hotep said: Looking at the Euro a bit more, it is slower to dry out the low levels. It looks a lot like the Texas Tech WRF were the flow at H7 is slower to turn allowing for better moisture to be in place as the better dynamics appear. I'm going to need you to post the Texas tech model for us please! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohwxguy Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 *sigh* I'll be in Houston next weekend to run the Houston Marathon, but sadly it appears likely the weather will be warmer than normal with higher humidity. Basically awful running conditions, particularly for someone like myself who has been training in a mostly cool & dry environment here in DC. Granted it isn't summertime heat & humidity levels, but it will still be quite the shock to my body to suddenly feel the suffocating effects of running in warmth & humidity after having not run in such conditions for a few months. I used to live in Houston so I knew I was taking a chance running this race, but hoped for the best. Actually I was just hoping for average conditions, but even that appears next to impossible at this point. *sigh* #pitypartyforone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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