Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 8

[jhamps10]

53 minutes ago, bubba hotep said:

Another variation of a system that will most likely never come to fruition...

 

The fact that it keeps coming back and closer will have to start raising some eyebrows if it stays over the next few runs... This setup is perfect for classic north Texas overrunning ice/snow.. Still way too far to throw out alarms but it bears close watching imho

[ams30721us]

We actually have pretty good agreement now (barring an 00z Euro change) of this threat of a few waves overrunning the arctic cold front late next week. The GFS has come around to the Euro timing and strength of the initial trough and cold push. That allows the arctic air to be established a good 24 hours, before a few waves move across the area from west to east starting Wednesday night- Thursday and then again possibly on Friday. Minus some major blocking scheme change, I think this may be a pretty strong threat! 

[bubba hotep]

Models still showing an interesting pattern for next week. I just can't get too excited with what is being depicted but at least the cold looks locked in. Just need one of those disturbances to be tracked and timed right.

[jhamps10]

pattern looks good, I'm not going to get excited until next week comes to be safe, I like how FWD worded this in the FD this morning

 

Quote

The next feature of interest will be an arctic cold front that is
forecast to move down the Plains and through North and Central
Texas Tuesday. This will bring much colder air into the region
for Tuesday night through the end of the work week. Both the
GFS and ECMWF indicate a possibility of the some wintry
precipitation next Thursday. Fortunately, this is just beyond
the end of the current set of forecasts.

58

&&

 

[jhamps10]

12Z GFS showing what would be a VERY dicey commute home WED night in the metroplex, with freezing rain/sleet line cutting across DFW with a long lasting winter event from Wed night through Friday morning for a good chunk of North/Central TX into Southern AR and LA

[bubba hotep]

This is starting to peak my interest but still lots of unknowns, esp since mesoscale features play a big role in these setups.

 

[vwgrrc]

This is starting to peak my interest but still lots of unknowns, esp since mesoscale features play a big role in these setups.



 

I wonder if this only counts snow or includes ice. 12z shows dfw with a good amount of time under ice next Thursday. If that turns out to be what happened, this might be a replay of December 7 2013, probably worse with snow on top of ice.


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[jhamps10]

8 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

I wonder if this only counts snow or includes ice. 12z shows dfw with a good amount of time under ice next Thursday. If that turns out to be what happened, this might be a replay of December 7 2013, probably worse with snow on top of ice.


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It's probably sleet and snow mixed... That's what I was thinking through my head... Cobblestone ice 2.0 Possibly.. Too soon to say for sure

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro says

[vwgrrc]

12z Euro says

busted? Please do tell


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[jhamps10]

well bubba... do tell, please give us some insight  

[vwgrrc]

6 minutes ago, jhamps10 said:

well bubba... do tell, please give us some insight  

SE forum is talking about it. Sounds like too warm...

[bubba hotep]

15 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

busted? Please do tell


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Bitter cold and no snow for DFW, maybe something for far East Texas along I20. Orientation of the trough is different than 00z and that looks to keep much of Texas dry and cold. Still lots of time and the setup keeps changing each run in the longer run. Only steady feature is the -EPO and cold. Feb '11 was a Nina snow event driven by an EPO dump, so it can happen. 

[vwgrrc]

Just now, bubba hotep said:

Bitter cold and no snow for DFW, maybe something for far East Texas along I20. Orientation of the trough is different than 00z and that looks to keep much of Texas dry and cold. Still lots of time and the setup keeps changing each run in the longer run. Only steady feature is the -EPO and cold. Feb '11 was a Nina snow event driven by an EPO dump, so it can happen. 

Well, if it's so different from the last run of Euro and GFS, I guess it's more likely to be a hiccup? I don't think Euro normally catch changes "earlier" than GFS.

[jhamps10]

I think the Euro was like oh hey, people are talking about this now... lets throw a big ol wrench into this sucker... anything can happen still at this point. yesterday the GFS was saying nothing but cold for DFW so it's all in the trends.. Not throwing a towel or sounding alarms at this point, just watch and see.

[Quixotic1]

Get the cold.  Worry about precip later.  

[bubba hotep]

1 hour ago, Quixotic1 said:

Get the cold.  Worry about precip later.  

Yep, next week is a long ways off.

[raindancewx]

A lot of the years I like for the Southwest had strong systems coming through in January & February - and it's been ages since the mountains of northern New Mexico had their snowiest month in March, which is when it should happen based on history, so expecting something to break through in the next three months in a big way.

The week from Jan 28 - Feb 3 has a boatload of snowy systems in the analogs for my area for what it's worth. Also, MJO, or just some other natural cycling seems to be sending major wetness to the SW every 45-days or so - Aug-->>late Sept--->Nov-->late Dec-->Feb. So if there is blocking in January, with the MJO cooperating, we may be in for some fun times. November was incredibly wet here, just wasn't cold - if we get the November pattern here with cold anomalies between now & March we get buried in snow.

[DFWWeather]

If 12z ECMWF pans out for next week...we would be talking severe cold into Texas with freezing temps into the LRGV. With -15°C air sitting over DFW, it would produce surface temps in the single digits for the first time in over 20 years. This still may be obtainable with the GFS solution if we get snow and ice on the ground. This cold with Greenland block may hang around for a while with more into week 2 of January.

[bubba hotep]

12 minutes ago, DFWWeather said:

If 12z ECMWF pans out for next week...we would be talking severe cold into Texas with freezing temps into the LRGV. With -15°C air sitting over DFW, it would produce surface temps in the single digits for the first time in over 20 years. This still may be obtainable with the GFS solution if we get snow and ice on the ground. This cold with Greenland block may hang around for a while with more into week 2 of January.

There is pretty good agreement b/w the 12z Euro EPS and GEFS on a mid month warm up. However, it looks like it could just be a temporary reload of the pattern before another big -EPO dump. Hopefully, this pattern will hold and the la nina background state will start to fade allowing for some more robust MJO action. Maybe better storm chances in February and March? 

[Quixotic1]

18z went north.

[bubba hotep]

54 minutes ago, Quixotic1 said:

18z went north.

It really held back that 2nd piece of energy. It feels like the 12z Euro and 18z GFS are at the two ends of the 500mb spectrum of possibilities for this event. Not based on anything scientific and just a hunch based off watching models the last couple of days.

[bubba hotep]

Back in the game? Although, that kind of banding would rub me the wrong way

[Quixotic1]

4 hours ago, bubba hotep said:

It really held back that 2nd piece of energy. It feels like the 12z Euro and 18z GFS are at the two ends of the 500mb spectrum of possibilities for this event. Not based on anything scientific and just a hunch based off watching models the last couple of days.

Yeah.  If we are getting into this weekend and things aren't settling on a solution it's going to be anxiety time.  Anything hanging back is good news.  Going to be patient.  Going to go look at the euro now.

[bubba hotep]

The 00z Euro package was pretty encouraging for us in DFW area. The op had some changes that I liked at H5 and it appears to be the dry outlier with both the EPS mean and control being wetter. About 30 of the EPS members showed some variation of winter weather in DFW. 

Also, the Para GFS has been trending our way with 06z being the farthest north yet:

I'm liking the trends but still not sold.

[vwgrrc]

The last couple runs seem to be warmer for dfw metro, hope that's not a trend!

[bubba hotep]

24 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

The last couple runs seem to be warmer for dfw metro, hope that's not a trend!

That is one of the things with this setup, the colder it gets the more suppressed it looks.

[vwgrrc]

1 hour ago, bubba hotep said:

The 00z Euro package was pretty encouraging for us in DFW area. The op had some changes that I liked at H5 and it appears to be the dry outlier with both the EPS mean and control being wetter. About 30 of the EPS members showed some variation of winter weather in DFW. 

Also, the Para GFS has been trending our way with 06z being the farthest north yet:

I'm liking the trends but still not sold.

Interesting. The 12z GFS seems a lot drier for dfw. I thought it's going to join Euro...

[DFWWeather]

1 hour ago, bubba hotep said:

That is one of the things with this setup, the colder it gets the more suppressed it looks.

Strongly agree...and in this case the colder drier solution looks correct imho. Given the amount of Arctic air that will be flowing down from the north, flow coming almost due north from the Arctic circle, the deeper, colder solution the ECMWF has looks correct. This is a McFarland setup. Folks, this is not a favorable upper air pattern for big DFW winter storm. The op GFS looks like an outlier to me and doesn't agree with the majority of its ensemble members. If anything, further south would be a target for frozen precipitation. I would not be surprised for freezing temps getting into LRGV with this setup.

The EPO going postive allowing for mid month warmup looks in error as the long wave global synoptic pattern says that should stay negative. AO, NAO, WPO, PNA, EPO (arguably) remaining negative points to widespread CONUS cold (save for Florida). Climate Prediction Center is in agreement as well with cold lasting well into week 2 of January. Joe Bastardi explains this today in his morning video. With Greenland blocking this cold is going to be in no hurry to leave with more building up behind it.

[vwgrrc]

17 minutes ago, DFWWeather said:

Strongly agree...and in this case the colder drier solution looks correct imho. Given the amount of Arctic air that will be flowing down from the north, flow coming almost due north from the Arctic circle, the deeper, colder solution the ECMWF has looks correct. This is a McFarland setup. Folks, this is not a favorable upper air pattern for big DFW winter storm. The op GFS looks like an outlier to me and doesn't agree with the majority of its ensemble members. If anything, further south would be a target for frozen precipitation. I would not be surprised for freezing temps getting into LRGV with this setup.

The EPO going postive allowing for mid month warmup looks in error as the long wave global synoptic pattern says that should stay negative. AO, NAO, WPO, PNA, EPO (arguably) remaining negative points to widespread CONUS cold (save for Florida). Climate Prediction Center is in agreement as well with cold lasting well into week 2 of January. Joe Bastardi explains this today in his morning video. With Greenland blocking this cold is going to be in no hurry to leave with more building up behind it.

I thought the McFarland Signature was what contributes to the Dec 2013 dfw ice storm? But maybe I was wrong.