Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 8

[bubba hotep]

Currently 33 with drizzle... 

[aggiegeog]

25 minutes ago, bubba hotep said:

Currently 33 with drizzle... 

Dang close call

[bubba hotep]

Back in the game?

[raindancewx]

So...the PDO spiked to 1.88 in November, up from 0.56 in October. Not exactly a common combination with the weak La Nina conditions we are seeing.

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

Looks like it is the second largest rise in the PDO value from Oct-->Nov since 1931. Years with big rises from Oct to Nov seem to be pretty volatile overall for the PDO.

Year	Oct	Nov	Nov - Oct	NDJFMA
1933	-1.19	0.55	1.74	0.55
2016	0.56	1.88	1.32
1962	-1.55	-0.37	1.18	-0.46
2002	0.42	1.51	1.09	1.69
1953	-1.09	-0.03	1.06	-0.79
1998	-1.39	-0.52	0.87	-0.45
1986	1.00	1.77	0.77	1.91
2000	-1.30	-0.53	0.77	0.17

[bubba hotep]

48 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

So...the PDO spiked to 1.88 in November, up from 0.56 in October. Not exactly a common combination with the weak La Nina conditions we are seeing.

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

Looks like it is the second largest rise in the PDO value from Oct-->Nov since 1931. Years with big rises from Oct to Nov seem to be pretty volatile overall for the PDO.

Year	Oct	Nov	Nov - Oct	NDJFMA
1933	-1.19	0.55	1.74	0.55
2016	0.56	1.88	1.32
1962	-1.55	-0.37	1.18	-0.46
2002	0.42	1.51	1.09	1.69
1953	-1.09	-0.03	1.06	-0.79
1998	-1.39	-0.52	0.87	-0.45
1986	1.00	1.77	0.77	1.91
2000	-1.30	-0.53	0.77	0.17

Is that also the second highest Nov reading ever? Models are showing a return of Nino and if the +PDO hangs on then Texas might be back in a wet pattern.

[raindancewx]

Looks third highest to me. But 2014 wasn't behind, same for a couple others. 1936 is the most recent year with a higher PDO value in November, and 1921 is listed as the highest. I was just playing with the ONI, AMO, and PDO values for Sept-Nov, it's very hard to find any year that matches all three. The PDO/ONI split isn't even the hard one, it's the AMO, it's super warm. If you split the three indexes into quarters, only 11 years are even top 1/4 matches across two of the three indexes. Looks something like this:

Fall of…	AMO	PDO	ONI
1937	0.358	0.40	0.2
1938	0.332	0.18	-0.7
1941	0.376	1.20	1.1
1944	0.359	-0.21	-0.4
1947	-0.022	0.43	-0.6
1983	-0.168	0.96	-0.8
1984	-0.304	0.65	-0.6
1995	0.110	0.45	-0.8
2003	0.385	0.45	0.4
2014	0.242	1.43	0.5
2015	0.288	1.42	2.0
2016	0.420	0.96	-0.8

1942 may actually be the best match overall, after a double El Nino, Modoki Moderate La Nina, very warm Atlantic, positive PDO. But it seems wetter/colder than that year despite the warmth that year. If you just normalize the indexes into rankings against how close the rank was to Fall 2016, these are the best 10 matches:

	AMO	PDO	ONI	AMO RK	PDO RK	ONI RK
2016	0.420	0.96	-0.8	0	0	0
1938	0.332	0.18	-0.7	10	31	8
1995	0.110	0.45	-0.8	33	18	5
1942	0.214	0.37	-1.2	24	22	21
1944	0.359	-0.21	-0.4	4	45	21
1983	-0.168	0.96	-0.8	68	1	5
1931	0.218	0.05	-0.5	23	35	17
2003	0.385	0.45	0.4	2	17	58
1937	0.358	0.40	0.2	5	21	55
1947	-0.022	0.43	-0.6	52	20	12

 

 

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS is close to keeping the northern DFW burbs below freezing until Tuesday. But other than that things look pretty blah until maybe a system Christmas weekend.

[DFWWeather]

45 minutes ago, bubba hotep said:

12z GFS is close to keeping the northern DFW burbs below freezing until Tuesday. But other than that things look pretty blah until maybe a system Christmas weekend.

GFS MOS Guidance for both 0z and 12z down to 13°F with a dewpoint of -1°F. Also 0z has us in the teens Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday mornings. Pretty impressive cold shot! We still need to break the 21 year streak of not getting to the single digits. Truly impressive when statistics say that should occur 1 out of every 4 years, maybe 5 now with that streak.

[bubba hotep]

DFW is saying that the Arctic front is ahead of schedule.  

[aggiegeog]

70s here in East Texas this morning. Front looks like it is through WF and Ardmore. It's gonna be a cold afternoon in North Texas and it would be will into E TX by evening.

Watch out for very cold wind chills in the morning tomorrow, single digits and teens with below zero wind chills in NW Texas.

[bubba hotep]

Looks like the front is about to push through the Denton area. FWD has my point forecast at 30% chance of sleet or snow b/w 9:00 pm - midnight. I'll be up anyway, so I'll be looking for some flurries! 

[Quixotic1]

front is right on top of us.  Changing from west to northwest winds.   

[bubba hotep]

Front is through MBY

[Quixotic1]

Since noon we've gone from 68 to 46.  Impressive.

[bubba hotep]

The 18z GFS is boned dry but both the 12z Euro and 18z 3k NAM drop close to a 0.10" of precipitation over the eastern areas of DFW. Will that fall as freezing drizzle, sleet or snow?

 

[cheese007]

Driving up from Richardson to McKinney had some drizzle. Fingers crossed!

[bubba hotep]

FWD says that flurries were reported at DFW airport.

NWS Fort Worth ‏@NWSFortWorth  12m12 minutes ago

A few flakes of #snow at #DFW Airport around 5 pm CST, the first wintry precip of the season. #dfwwx #bluenorther #txwx

 

[Quixotic1]

25 and light snow or drizzle falling here.

[cheese007]

49 minutes ago, Quixotic1 said:

25 and light snow or drizzle falling here.

Where are you at?

[bubba hotep]

Got a mix of mist and mangled flakes here south of Lucas.

[Quixotic1]

1 hour ago, cheese007 said:

Where are you at?

North Frisco.  I can literally throw a rock into prosper.

[bubba hotep]

Radar is showing something up near Ana, TX. Maybe some heavier flurries  

[Roy]

The 18 GFS fantasy Christmas storm makes me excited like a kid since I will be in Abilene, but it's obviously nonsense and will change and probably already has. So cold! Be nice to finally get into the teens and get rid of any lingering mosquitos.

[bubba hotep]

That would be a devastating gradient for us east of I35!

[Quixotic1]

9 IMBY.  Breaks the old record of 10 back in January 2015.

i expect it to be smashed tonight with lower winds and maximum cooling.  This front reminds me of January 20, 1985.

[bubba hotep]

9 hours ago, bubba hotep said:

That would be a devastating gradient for us east of I35!

Just a slight change from 00z to 06z...

[bubba hotep]

1 hour ago, Quixotic1 said:

9 IMBY.  Breaks the old record of 10 back in January 2015.

i expect it to be smashed tonight with lower winds and maximum cooling.  This front reminds me of January 20, 1985.

What kind of weather station do you have? I finally broke down and got a rain gauge but don't have an electronic temp station yet. 

[bubba hotep]

DFW got down to 18 for the coldest low since 1/8/15. 

[Quixotic1]

41 minutes ago, bubba hotep said:

What kind of weather station do you have? I finally broke down and got a rain gauge but don't have an electronic temp station yet. 

It's an ambient weather.  I don't have a rain gauge.  It does an accurate job on the temps.  I verify it with a thermometer occasionally.  It trends the pressure really well.  I triangulated it from Denton McKinney and Addison.  Did the same thing with the humidity.  There are far less lazy ways to ensure accuracy but hasn't seemed to need it.  I wanted a Davis but someone gave me this instead... been pretty happy.  

The only thing I wish it could do is record daily highs and lows.

[aggiegeog]

Looks like today featured sub freezing highs for a large chunk of the state. Highest here was right around 30 with wind child in the 10s for much of the day. Can we reach the mid teens tonight with lighter winds and less clouds? This morning was 21 here.