bubba hotep Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 3 hours ago, TXHawk88 said: Lonnnnng time lurker, first time poster. 06Z GFS on board with getting some wintery precip, into N Texas around the 20th as well. Hopefully this trend continues. That is a better look for us with no low over the Great Lakes and a s/w digging across Texas with some cold air in place. We can dream about the end result but it will probably be gone at 12z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 12z Euro wasn't all bad and it highlights the potential for a storm around the 20th. It has a stronger northern stream vort that crushes the southern stream giving us a positive tilted sheared out mess. Small changes in timing or strength of features could result in a big storm. Maybe a time period to start paying closer attention to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 12z Para-GFS a bit faster with a system around the 18th/19th. Still points to that being a time frame to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 18z GFS is decent at 500mb but is torching... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 I don't know what the GFS is saying. It's all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 The next week to ten days will be cold east of the Rockies, and then the blow torch we have in the SW right now will follow the cold out of the Southwest. I'm assuming it cools to average or genuine cold anomalies after the 18th-20th in the SW once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 From SHV: Watching Sat night/Sun and next Monday for interest... Quote The longer range models vary a bit on timing as our mid to late week air mass slowly drifts East. Overrunning rain is often a bit faster than expected and we are leaning with the slightly faster ECMWF for the weekend event. The GFS is just a bit slower and really it is difficult to portray any difference in timing with 12 hour blocks. However, the colder air will be working is just as the rain is ending around midnight or daybreak, typical for our area. So depending on a few issues, we may potentially see some light change over as rain ends early Sunday, but until the models come into better agreement we will remain all liquid at this time. The 06Z run is now faster on GFS and colder and slower and still wet 12z Sun on Euro. Stay tuned, but at least school will be out for Christmas with the coldest high yet at 1040 and more moisture streaming out of the Western Gulf over the TX coastal bend for Monday. /24/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 The 00Z Euro sure does paint a fun temperature swing for ETX heading into the weekend! Ha Spring Break to January in 24 hours Saturday into Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Just once be right long range GFS, just this one time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Starting to get interested in this potential energy rolling thru on Sun ngt into Monday. Cold air will be in place, so if the energy rolls out for Monday, It could get a bit messy for sure. Here's the 12z GEM picture. GFS also has the system, although on the 12z it was a bit displaced further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 FWD sounding bullish about this weekend. Essentially that even though moisture will be limited, the forcing as the base of the trough swings through will be very strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 4 hours ago, Quixotic1 said: FWD sounding bullish about this weekend. Essentially that even though moisture will be limited, the forcing as the base of the trough swings through will be very strong. That was an interesting way to end the discussion. 18z GFS wasn't as encouraging as some of the previous runs but the cold air is there. It's just kind of a crappy setup with a positive tilted trough with energy hanging back in the SW. If that trough could get a more neutral orientation and that energy could kick out a bit faster... The 12z Euro drops about 1/3" of an inch of rain at DFW with temps in the mid-30s, so it isn't far off from something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 It's interesting looking at the meteograms on Weatherbell from the EPS. Says ABQ gets 6.0" snow from Dec 13-Jan 26 (+70%), and that precip is 1.18" in the same time frame (+90%). Would be a warm/wet period, given the temps are showing as +1F to +2F in the same period. Wet anomalies get stronger in the northern/western part of the states. Cooler too the further north & west into NM you go. The 46 day period shows the warm anomalies weakening in NM but growing in the SE, so maybe TX will be perpetually stuck between the two ridges trying to take in cold shots from the north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 12z GFS showing two chances of winter weather for the DFW area over the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Combo of guidance is pointing towards Sunday having the potential to be a sub freezing high day at DFW. We've seen this before this winter at this range and the models have been too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 12z Euro keeps DFW below 30 for the high on Sunday, unless it is above 30 after midnight. It is hard to tell exactly when DFW goes below 30 since it goes from 71 at 00z to 24 at 06z. Also, it kicks out the low and is much wetter than past runs but looks too warm for any winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 1 hour ago, bubba hotep said: 12z Euro keeps DFW below 30 for the high on Sunday, unless it is above 30 after midnight. It is hard to tell exactly when DFW goes below 30 since it goes from 71 at 00z to 24 at 06z. Also, it kicks out the low and is much wetter than past runs but looks too warm for any winter weather. so that's a drop off from 7PM to 1AM local time? Not unheard of. Hasn't happened in awhile. Christmas 2012 comes to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 1 hour ago, bubba hotep said: 12z Euro keeps DFW below 30 for the high on Sunday, unless it is above 30 after midnight. It is hard to tell exactly when DFW goes below 30 since it goes from 71 at 00z to 24 at 06z. Also, it kicks out the low and is much wetter than past runs but looks too warm for any winter weather. Just gonna post this exact same thing. It also keeps us in the 20s all day Monday as well looks like after a low of 17°F Monday morning. I'm afraid the wintry precipitation with this front doesn't look all that exciting. Can't rule out flurries or freezing drizzle yet, but nothing significant. This definitely looks colder than last week and the coldest since January 2015 on lows, probably longer on highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 1 hour ago, bubba hotep said: 12z Euro keeps DFW below 30 for the high on Sunday, unless it is above 30 after midnight. It is hard to tell exactly when DFW goes below 30 since it goes from 71 at 00z to 24 at 06z. Also, it kicks out the low and is much wetter than past runs but looks too warm for any winter weather. Wow! This reminds me a TON of March 2014 here. The night of the big Ice storm behind the arctic front. Not saying we will see that again, but that day we had temps in the 70's before the front rolled thru and we dropped into the low 20s here by morning. This front may even be stronger than that one since back then we actually had 3 inches of sleet and freezing rain everywhere. What a wild drop! 76-20 in 12 hrs! Oh and temp Tuesday are def. not balmy with that next system hovering around or just above freezing on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 8 minutes ago, ams30721us said: Wow! This reminds me a TON of March 2014 here. The night of the big Ice storm behind the arctic front. Not saying we will see that again, but that day we had temps in the 70's before the front rolled thru and we dropped into the low 20s here by morning. This front may even be stronger than that one since back then we actually had 3 inches of sleet and freezing rain everywhere. What a wild drop! 76-20 in 12 hrs! Oh and temp Tuesday are def. not balmy with that next system hovering around or just above freezing on Tuesday. In the 80s when these massive Arctic fronts came barreling through, I've seen the temperature drop 40+ degrees in 1 hour at DFW before. In Amarillo, when the December 1989 front came through the temperatures dropped 50+ degrees in less the 20 minutes causing light to bend. There were tons of reports people seeing mirages of cows in the sky because the light was bending. Texas extreme temps swings not uncommon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 31 minutes ago, DFWWeather said: In the 80s when these massive Arctic fronts came barreling through, I've seen the temperature drop 40+ degrees in 1 hour at DFW before. In Amarillo, when the December 1989 front came through the temperatures dropped 50+ degrees in less the 20 minutes causing light to bend. There were tons of reports people seeing mirages of cows in the sky because the light was bending. Texas extreme temps swings not uncommon! Wow! I can't even imagine! I still have some swings to get used to! Thats just gotta be unreal to the body! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Already looking more interesting than last winter in dfw... Delkus is already stirring up the hype machine on Twitter too about next week, i was like what the.... My ankle will probably be killing me Saturday night with that artic front! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Looks like we go from seasonal this week to mild to start the weekend before the bottom falls out late Saturday. Snow possible early Sunday and ice possible next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 18z GFS appears to have a better vort pass for DFW than 12z: However, moisture return is limited due to the orientation of the trough in the days leading up to this image. It cuts off farther east than 12z allowing SW flow to continue longer before turning and tapping the Gulf. The 12z looked colder and had better moisture to work with but the 18z had a better ejection. Just need to get the right combo! The latest thinking from FWD: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 I hope I did this right and it's not time-sensitive, but I'm glad to see a Day 5 slight risk for deep east Texas. I'd like to see the system slow down a bit and move a bit farther west, but at least there's some interesting non-winter weather possible in my neck of the woods for Saturday: A cherry on the top would be a bit of wintry precip behind the front Sunday morning. At least we have something interesting to follow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 12z GFS was disappointing for the DFW area but about 1/2 of the GEFS members show something frozen over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 SPC mentions that the front is trending slightly faster, so the severe risk is trending the wrong direction, towards the east. Bummer. Hope that changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 1 hour ago, bubba hotep said: 12z GFS was disappointing for the DFW area but about 1/2 of the GEFS members show something frozen over the weekend. It wasn't disappointing for the 26th. Has major winter storm then. It does however continue the trend of being colder with this outbreak for DFW for Sunday through Tuesday. From what I can gather from the NAM, just barely coming into range, it also appears colder at the surface and at H85. I'm going with a low of 18°F for Monday morning at DFW Airport and maybe not getting out of the 20s all day on Sunday. It is even conceivable that we will struggle to get above freezing, if at all, on Monday as well. Those hoping for snow with this blast, I'm afraid are out of luck. Best we can do is some freezing drizzle possibly or light flurries, but the surface is looking drier and the moisture to scour out quicker before subfreezing temperatures set in. Not real excited yet regarding storm system FWD is looking at for next week, where they mention possible wintry precip. Time will tell! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 18z GFS agrees with basically all 12z guidance on any chances of snow over the weekend for DFW - slim to none. The main energy associated with what was a possible early week "storm" is now cutoff out over the Pacific. Closer to Hawaii than Dallas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 I want some pictures of any weird Blue Norther cloud phenomena/mirages this winter. Don't think this setup is going to be coming back for a few years after this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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