Quixotic1 Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 My gauge still has 10.4 from 2015 as its record low. Of course it didn't start up until December of 2013. Feels like it's been forever since we've talked about cold, DPs, flurries........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 18Z GFS continues idea of light snow at least along the Red River Wednesday morning right behind the front. By Thursday it has a 1041mb high over N TX. With these two things I think it is underdoing the lows Thu and Fri as it shows mid to upper 20s with DPs in the teens with a very light wind going calm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 12z Euro EPS with one of the "snowiest" looks so far this season w/ 15 members showing measurable snow at DFW. The mean is 0.5" but a couple of members pushing 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 14 minutes ago, aggiegeog said: 18Z GFS continues idea of light snow at least along the Red River Wednesday morning right behind the front. By Thursday it has a 1041mb high over N TX. With these two things I think it is underdoing the lows Thu and Fri as it shows mid to upper 20s with DPs in the teens with a very light wind going calm. It looks like 7 of the 15 Euro EPS members that show snow are with the first impulse that was on the 00z Euro and the 12 & 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 My outlook for December in October was the first image ("December 2016 US Outlook") But now I think this is on the table ("December Scenario - Worst") I'm a bit annoyed as the outlook was about spot on in Oct & Nov. The new December map is pretty close to what I expected for temperature profiles in January. Accuweather has been showing Dec temp profiles in much of the West at around 2-6F below normal for a while now. Albuquerque was shown last night at ~43F for a mean high, against the 1931-2015 average of 47.8F. Today it shows 43.8F. Denver, Cheyenne and Albuquerque all look around 3-5F below normal by their reckoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 The new Euro weeklies show above normal precip and below normal temps for Texas through mid-Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Next week looks like it will be a McFarland event with a Rio Grande Valley freeze. Interestingly it will be -WPO (Bering Sea ridge)driven unlike most others which are -EPO driven (ridge over GoA and into AK). North of I-20 highs could be sub freezing with lows in the teens for a day for a day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 WOW! Today's 0z ECMWF has H85 temps down to a whopping -14.5°C at DFW after Arctic front next week. Last time we saw H85 temps anywhere near this cold was during the intense Arctic air outbreak the week of the Super Bowl in February 2011. The NWS this morning said they undercut the coldest guidance on Thursday's temps with a low of 28°F and high of 44°F. They must have not looked at the ECMWF. This kind of cold would produce nearly the coldest temps at DFW in nearly 20 years comparable to 2011 but more like February 1996, but colder. Outlying areas would see lows in the single digits with the Airport itself between 10°F and 13°F. Highs would not get above freezing Thursday. If we had a snow pack with that kind of cold then single digits even at the Airport would be a good bet. However, the ECMWF is bone dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 It sounds like some of the Euro ensembles have a winter storm with the front. If we get snow or ice then the first single digit code in a very long time is possible. Red River counties could flirt with 0. Man I am getting excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 44 minutes ago, aggiegeog said: It sounds like some of the Euro ensembles have a winter storm with the front. If we get snow or ice then the first single digit code in a very long time is possible. Red River counties could flirt with 0. Man I am getting excited. The 00z Euro EPS backed way off on the snow chances vs. 12z. Only one member shows anything for DFW next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 27 minutes ago, bubba hotep said: The 00z Euro EPS backed way off on the snow chances vs. 12z. Only one member shows anything for DFW next week. Many model runs to go so we will see, but it looks like a pretty dry system. Maybe we can get us a little NW flow kink to bring some snow showers within the Arctic air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 This Arctic front looks as though it will penetrate all the way to Central America! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 7 minutes ago, DFWWeather said: This Arctic front looks as though it will penetrate all the way to Central America! Yep, this kind of cold is very dense and it just flows south even with minimal upper air support. This system will also extend the snow pack into the Central and maybe Southern Plains. Also, plenty of cold air will remain in western Canada for subsequent fronts to tap into. There appears to be a chain of fronts through at least mid month and likely into January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 The 12z GFS vs 0z ECMWF are very different on next week. GFS is warmer than ECMWF and has been the whole time. Shouldn't this be the other way around? GFS has a more NW SE trajectory sending the coldest air off to our north and east giving just kinda a glancing blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 4 minutes ago, DFWWeather said: The 12z GFS vs 0z ECMWF are very different on next week. GFS is warmer than ECMWF and has been the whole time. Shouldn't this be the other way around? GFS has a more NW SE trajectory sending the coldest air off to our north and east giving just kinda a glancing blow. The GFS is worthless right now as far as the midweek storm is concerned. With a -PNA and +NAO there is no reason for the storm to take the track it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jezbeliverson Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Hello, This is Jez. I am new here so sorry if this is wrong forum. I want to learn about weather, as a hobby. So I can talk to my friends and be smart and maybe do a degree in the sciences later on Do you recommend any good beginners resources? Also, I am in the Houston, TX area. I hear that it is going to rain several inches this weekend, is that right? How can I learn more about it, apart from the news channels? Thank you and apologies if I have posted something wrong. xx Jez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 So I matched "wet" Novembers in non-El Nino years to conditions observed this year in Albuquerque. It's like dead on, every month except for August, when most of the city probably did have 1.2-1.5" rain, but the airport only had 0.86". The signal is pretty strong for an above normal January in terms of precip here, and the implied storm track is pretty interesting nationally. Jez - you should read some books and then research what you don't understand. That's what I do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 There hasn't been much talk about this weekends rain event but this seems like a pretty reasonable prediction, I probably would've gone 3-5"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captmorg70 Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Welcome to the board Jez! You are definitely in the right place for Houston weather. I think most of the active members are more towards Dallas on this board, but a few in C Stat and Austin as well. I've learned a lot mainly from reading and following the posters on this board. With winter coming up, I imagine this place will start getting more action! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 It sure is going to be a wet and chilly weekend, already up around 0.5" here and 47 degrees. That map is looks reasonable though there is some chance of more. We only look to get a one day break on Tuesday before more rain and much colder weather crashes through on Wed. Temps likely won't reach 45 for days afterwards with some days struggling to reach freezing. Moisture behind the front looks meager but models always struggle to see the little systems that can bring us snow behind these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 So it begins. *cue epic music* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 The 00z Euro looks to be trending to a "warmer" solution for next week with this outbreak looking a lot like some of the others from the past couple of seasons. The heart of the cold stays off to the NE vs diving straight down the spine of the Rockies. I guess on the bright side, the GFS has backed off the mid-month 70s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 50 minutes ago, bubba hotep said: The 00z Euro looks to be trending to a "warmer" solution for next week with this outbreak looking a lot like some of the others from the past couple of seasons. The heart of the cold stays off to the NE vs diving straight down the spine of the Rockies. I guess on the bright side, the GFS has backed off the mid-month 70s? As long as we have -PNA I am hopeful that the cold will come straight south though the -NAO is a bit too negative for my liking. It may turn out that the front early next week will be even stronger down here with cold air in place already and more snow to work with down the Plains plus a more +NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 The last couple of runs of the Euro appear to be teeing up another Arctic blast. Maybe this one will be colder or deliver snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Not much rain over the past 24 hrs, this event is starting out kind of bustish, about 0.25" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Rain has been good here so far. It's been a couple hours since I last checked, but we were messing 1.5" then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Nothing overly interesting on the 12z Euro EPS. It looks like we might move pretty deep into Dec without any winter weather to track in the DFW area. On the bright side, the 12z GEFS doesn't seem to support the GFS and the mid-70s... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 I gotta tell you guys, for the last week or so the La Nina has looked pretty ragged. It's too early to know, but I think it peaked in SON. Will be interesting to see the value for that period on Monday. The years with La Nina or La Nina ish conditions in SON that then weakened ("warmed") by DJF since 1930 are: 1931, 1947, 1956, 1964, 1971, 1978, 1983, 1989, 1992. Three of those years come up a fair amount in temperature/precip trends this year in my area - 1978, 1983, 1989. Also, 1931, 1956, 1964, 1971, 1978, 1983, and 1992 - all either immediately followed or preceded an El Nino, so that's kind of interesting to think about in terms of the interference to La Nina / La Nina-ish conditions. I used <=-0.2C in SON in Nino 3.4, followed by a warmer reading in Nino 3.4 in DJF as my thresholds, and I threw out the years that were <=-1.2C in SON, since this is a much weaker event. It's actually an average to pretty wet pattern for everyone but California & Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 5 hours ago, raindancewx said: I gotta tell you guys, for the last week or so the La Nina has looked pretty ragged. It's too early to know, but I think it peaked in SON. Will be interesting to see the value for that period on Monday. The years with La Nina or La Nina ish conditions in SON that then weakened ("warmed") by DJF since 1930 are: 1931, 1947, 1956, 1964, 1971, 1978, 1983, 1989, 1992. Three of those years come up a fair amount in temperature/precip trends this year in my area - 1978, 1983, 1989. Also, 1931, 1956, 1964, 1971, 1978, 1983, and 1992 - all either immediately followed or preceded an El Nino, so that's kind of interesting to think about in terms of the interference to La Nina / La Nina-ish conditions. I used <=-0.2C in SON in Nino 3.4, followed by a warmer reading in Nino 3.4 in DJF as my thresholds, and I threw out the years that were <=-1.2C in SON, since this is a much weaker event. It's actually an average to pretty wet pattern for everyone but California & Maine. Yea, I've been noticing that. We could be talking about a "snowy" El Nino winter again next year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 00z Euro came in colder than 12z and has area wide sub-25 lows with teens in the colder areas Thursday night. Then it has the northern burbs flirting with sub freezing highs on Friday. Here is the latest from FWD: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now