wxmx Posted June 29, 2016 Share Posted June 29, 2016 It seems so, as a strong CCKW/MJO pulse appears to be headed for the Atlantic past week 1 (Credit: http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/mjo.html) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 CFS says July will see the SW US/Mexican Monsoon displaced to AZ. Although...July 1 looks like a pretty good monsoon day for NM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorMu Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Little chance of rain in south central and SE Texas until the 14th of July, and what little there is on the models is near the coast. Brutal heat wave in the SE US settles in near mid month. Monsoon season precip models - the July 4th weekend looks like a good time to begin...maybe a little extra MoJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 I'm new to the San Antonio area. Recently transplanted from Detroit, MI. Gotta say I was unprepared for the heat and lack of interesting weather so far since I've been here. Didnt rain once since I arrived 6/5/16. Interesting to say the least. Anyway, I look forward to posting in here when it does become more active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 I'm new to the San Antonio area. Recently transplanted from Detroit, MI. Gotta say I was unprepared for the heat and lack of interesting weather so far since I've been here. Didnt rain once since I arrived 6/5/16. Interesting to say the least. Anyway, I look forward to posting in here when it does become more active. Welcome! Trade snow for severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted July 2, 2016 Share Posted July 2, 2016 It seems so, as a strong CCKW/MJO pulse appears to be headed for the Atlantic past week 1 twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png (Credit: http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/mjo.html) The models seem to be struggling some now that the CCKW appears to be separating from the MJO. The EPAC is obviously going to get a nice bump in activity out of this but hard to say for the other side. Conditions don't appear to be favorable for anything in the Gulf & Western Caribbean but it will be interesting to see if that changes as the CCKW moves across. Here in DFW, we seem to be slipping into the annual "summer sucks" pattern. Maybe a storm for some tomorrow afternoon or Monday? I did get too see a couple of storms in DC this week: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted July 3, 2016 Share Posted July 3, 2016 Maybe, just maybe tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted July 3, 2016 Share Posted July 3, 2016 Storms starting to fire up near Wichita Falls, TX with tornado warned storms up in Oklahoma. Can the northern portions of DFW get lucky later on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted July 3, 2016 Share Posted July 3, 2016 Watch possibly coming for N. Texas MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1126NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0524 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2016AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN N TXCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLEVALID 032224Z - 040100ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENTSUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR SOME INCREASE IN THESVR-TSTM RISK LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THERE ISSOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE ANTICIPATED COVERAGE OF SVRTSTMS...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A SVR TSTM WATCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.DISCUSSION...A SFC BOUNDARY RUNNING APPROXIMATELY ALONG THEINTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR FROM OK EXTENDS SWWD TO THE TX S PLAINS. ASFC TROUGH TO THE E IS ANALYZED FROM CNTRL OK SWWD TO THE PERMIANBASIN OF SWRN TX. MESOSCALE ASCENT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH...COUPLEDWITH DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER CIRCULATIONS IN ITS VICINITY ENCOURAGED BYSFC TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 101F...MAY CONTINUE TOFACILITATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.LOW-LEVEL FLOW/CONVERGENCE ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...HOWEVER...AND THISDETRACTS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE RISKEVOLVING. NEVERTHELESS...WARM-SECTOR BUOYANCY IS ROBUST -- WITHMLCAPE AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG THAT MAY ENCOURAGE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.WHILE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS RATHER MODEST...AROUND 20-25 KT OF EFFECTIVEBULK SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS TOEVOLVE. DCAPE AROUND 1000-1700 J/KG WILL PROMOTE STRONG DOWNDRAFTACCELERATIONS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR LOCALIZED CONSOLIDATING COLDPOOLS...WITH ISOLATED TO PERHAPS WIDELY SCATTERED SVR WIND GUSTS.THIS WOULD ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE IF LOCALIZED COLD-POOLAMALGAMATION/UPSCALE GROWTH WERE TO OCCUR.GIVEN RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER 70SDEWPOINTS...MLCINH GAINS WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR FOLLOWING DUSK. ASSUCH...SOME SVR RISK MAY EXIST...AND PERHAPS INCREASE...DURING THEEVENING HOURS AS A MODEST NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER SPEED MAX BECOMESESTABLISHED. AS SUCH...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDINGTHE ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION OF THE SVR RISK AND PROSPECTS FOR WWISSUANCE. REGARDLESS...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BEMONITORED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted July 3, 2016 Share Posted July 3, 2016 June highs here were closest to 1953, 1956, 1958, 1981, 2002, 2011. Not a horrible match for June 2016 either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 I'm new to the San Antonio area. Recently transplanted from Detroit, MI. Gotta say I was unprepared for the heat and lack of interesting weather so far since I've been here. Didnt rain once since I arrived 6/5/16. Interesting to say the least. Anyway, I look forward to posting in here when it does become more active. Too bad you didn't move in the spring-San Antonio had some massive hail events this year. Get used to generally boring but very hot weather through September. We're just about to wrap up month 1 of constant 90+ highs in Austin. Now it's on to 95-100 every day, with humidity making for heat indices of 105+ every day. At this rate, in a few weeks we'll be at the 100+ daily highs phase. So far this summer looks like it will be hotter than last summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 Storms are starting to really get going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 Updated D1 to account for trends this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1128NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0749 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2016AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN OK...NW TX...FAR SW MO...FAR NW ARCONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 319...320...VALID 040049Z - 040215ZTHE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH319...320...CONTINUES.SUMMARY...SVR THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS SVR WATCHES 319 AND 320.DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT SOME ISOLATED LARGEHAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST UPSCALE GROWTH INTO MORE OFA LINEAR CONVECTIVE HAS OCCURRED ACROSS CNTRL OK...WITH COLD POOLSFROM EARLIER CONVECTION AMALGAMATING AS THEY MOVE SEWD. MID-LEVELFLOW IS WEAK /00Z OUN SOUNDING SAMPLED AROUND 20 KT AT 700 MB/ SOTHE CHANCES OF A WELL-DEVELOPED...FAST-MOVING LINE ARE VERYLOW...ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREASWHERE THE LINE MERGES WITH PRECEDING STORMS AND/OR PRECIP LOADINGLEADS TO A STRONG DOWNDRAFT. INTERSECTING OUTFLOWS ALONG THE SRN ENDOF THE LINE WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...WITH A MOREEAST-WEST ORIENTATION ANTICIPATED. FORWARD SPEED OF THE LINE HEREWILL BE LESS THAN AREAS N AND E...PARTICULARLY AS THE LLJINCREASES...BUT A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SOMEBACKBUILDING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE LINE...WITH THERESULTING STORMS LASTING SEVERAL MORE HOURS. HOWEVER...THECONVECTION UPSTREAM OVER NW TX MAKES THIS SCENARIO UNLIKELY WITHTSTMS EXPECTED TO WANE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.FARTHER S /ACROSS NW TX/...MORE CELLULAR CONVECTIVECONTINUES...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE STORMS ARE OUTFLOW DOMINANT WITH ATLEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A CONVECTIVE SYSTEMTHAT WOULD THEN LIKELY TRACK SEWD TOWARDS THE METROPLEX. DAMAGINGWIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATE LARGE HAIL ISPOSSIBLE...MOSIER.. 07/04/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 Storms moving into western areas but not holding out hope out here in the far east. How many times this season have storms died west of I35? Far too often it seems like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 Think you've got a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 Legit early morning light show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 Think you've got a shot. We got a decent hit right after midnight and look to pick up some more with this current batch of cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 Wow, just insane lightning this morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 looks like 1.5" for a lot of the center of the metroplex. Spot 2" reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 looks like 1.5" for a lot of the center of the metroplex. Spot 2" reports. Also, seeing reports of wind damage in a few areas with gusts up towards 70 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 Record daily rainfall event at DFW this morning with more rain possible this afternoon. Could DFW end up with a months worth of rain in one day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 Record daily rainfall event at DFW this morning with more rain possible this afternoon. Could DFW end up with a months worth of rain in one day? The rain has also kept things quite a bit cooler than forecasted. This morning's low was 71°F and afternoon highs are struggling to reach the 90s as of this writing and will more than likely be well below forecasted values. Heat index values both yesterday and today have been below 105°F. Seems a little ridiculous that the NWS is keeping the Heat Advisory going as we are not meeting criteria by a wide margin. Even if we briefly meet it tomorrow, it won't be for two consecutive days. The Heat Advisory should be cancelled. Given recent rainfall and ridge not building in strong this week triple digit temps seem unlikely at DFW Airport for the next 7 to 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 Cells starting to pop out near Wichita Falls again this afternoon, maybe they can ride the gradient towards DFW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1134NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0521 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2016AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NWRN/N-CNTRL TX AND VICINITYCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELYVALID 042221Z - 050045ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENTSUMMARY...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSSPORTIONS OF NWRN/N-CNTRL TX AND VICINITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOONHOURS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SVR WIND/HAILMAY ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGERWELL INTO THE EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BEMONITORED...THOUGH PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WW ISSUANCE WILL BEUNLIKELY.DISCUSSION...STRONG DIABATIC HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYERCHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S -- EXCEPT IN THE 60SACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS -- HAS FOSTERED VERY STRONGDESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. SFC ANALYSIS AND VIS SATELLITEIMAGERY IMPLY AN ASSORTMENT OF DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ANDCONFLUENCE AXES ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH A FRONTOLYTICSYNOPTIC BOUNDARY INVOF THE RED RIVER...SERVING AS FOCI FORINCIPIENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTIONWILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ASMLCINH HAS MOSTLY ERODED. TSTMS SHOULD SPREAD SEWD THROUGH THEEVENING HOURS.HOWEVER...THE OVERALL DEARTH OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS THATCONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED. REGARDLESS...THECOMBINATION OF THE AMPLE INSTABILITY AND A ZONE OF MODESTLY ENHANCEDMID-LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTING AROUND 30-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARSUGGESTS THAT A FEW SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MAYOCCUR WITH LOCALLY SVR WIND/HAIL. LARGE DCAPE WILL SUPPORT LOCALLYCONSOLIDATING COLD POOLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOCUSED CORRIDORS OFLOCALLY SVR WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY IF UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTHWERE TO FOSTER CONVECTIVE CLUSTERING.PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND THE ATTENDANTSVR RISK MAY REMAIN TOO ISOLATED FOR WW ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...IF AMORE ORGANIZED...FORWARD-PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WERE TOBECOME EVIDENT WITH GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SVR WINDS...WWPROBABILITIES COULD INCREASE. THIS WILL BE HIGHLY CONTINGENT ONSTORM-SCALE PROCESSES WITH LIMITED PREDICTABILITY AT THE PRESENTTIME...THOUGH THE AREA FROM THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS TO N-CNTRL TX WOF THE DFW METROPLEX COULD BE A FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTIVE-CLUSTERDEVELOPMENT...COHEN/GUYER.. 07/04/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 The DP is 76 and 90 T. It's pretty freaking hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 If those randomly spastic moving cells can form a cold pool and start pushing east then we might get something with this setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 If those randomly spastic moving cells can form a cold pool and start pushing east then we might get something with this setup You may be onto something. They seem to be getting their act together. Though they would pretty much have to head due east. Last night's convection was a pretty rare event. Typically the only time we get nocturnal convection like that in July or August is with a warm core type system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 Keep moving just north of east but would like to see some expansion in coverage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 A couple of random cells popping in the DFW area now, this one isn't too far away ETA: It is setting off some big time fireworks now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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