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July 2016 Discussions/Observations


Rtd208

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The 0z Euro picked up on the GFS/NAM idea of more clouds and thunderstorms Monday so not as hot as 12z which was drier.

This may be the only thing standing between an upper 90's or 100 degree reading at some of the local hotspots like EWR and LGA.

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LGA tied for 7th warmest July with more heat coming to boost the ranking this week.

#1...82.8...2010

#2...81.9...1999

#3...81.2...2013

#4...80.8...1966...1955

#5...80.7...2006

#6...80.6...1994

#7...80.5...2016..2012

#8...80.4...2011...1952

#9...80.1...1993

#10..80.0...2016...2008

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Upton's thoughts (as of now) on tomorrow.

 

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Initial shortwave/vort moves across or just south of the area in
the morning per latest model suite.

It appears that scattered showers and thunderstorms will
accompany this feature, with better chance near the coast and
south.

Then, upstream trough approaches, along with sfc cold front. With
increasing low level moisture, deep mixing and increasing surface
based instability, numerous thunderstorms should approach and
impact a good portion of the area late in the day. Moderate cape,
and increasing shear will result in a few stronger to possibly
severe thunderstorms, with the biggest threat gusty winds.

With the cloud cover expected, it appears that temperatures may be
a degree or lower than previously thought. Much depends on amount
of sunshine that is realized as h8 temps increase to 18-20C. Went
above mos numbers, and with dew points rising into the 70s, expect
heat indices well in the 90s, and exceeding 100 in a few spots.

The excessive heat watch for NYC and NJ metro has been converted
to a heat advisory, and the heat advisory remains in effect for
the remainder of the area. The only exception is eastern Long
Island and SE CT where temperatures remain in the 80s due to
clouds and south winds. As such, heat advisory has been cancelled
for those locations.

Any evening showers and thunderstorms move east and weaken in
time.

Another warm night is in store Monday night as the front slowly
approaches and moves through.
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