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July 2016 Discussions/Observations


Rtd208

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Just now, forkyfork said:

those are lows :)

Well that makes a lot more sense :lol:

 

Anyone know what the wind direction will be next weekend during this potential heat streak? 

Will the coast avoid some of the heat, like Jersey Shore and Long island?

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50 minutes ago, Morris said:

KNYC peaked at 89 today, so no heat wave.

The park falling way behind the rest of NYC/NJ metro.  Ala 2006.

 

2016:

PHL: 14 (Apr: 0  ; May:  3; Jun: 4 ; Jul: 7 ; Aug: ; Sep: 
EWR: 13 (Apr: 0  ; May: 3 ; Jun: 3 ; Jul: 7; Aug: ; Sep: 
TTN: 11 (Apr: 0  ; May: 2  ; Jun: 4; Jul: 5; Aug: ; Sep: 
LGA: 10 (Apr: 0 ; May: 3 ; Jun: 1; Jul : 6; Aug: ; Sep: 
ACY: 11 (Apr: 0 ; May: 1 ; Jun: 4  ; Jul: 6; Aug: ; Sep: 
TEB: 10 (Apr: 0 ; May: 4  ; Jun : ; Jul: 6; Aug: ; Sep: 
NYC: 4  (Apr: 0 ; May: 2  ; Jun: ; Jul:  2; Aug: ; Sep: 
JFK: 3 (Apr: 0 ; May: 0  ; Jun:1 ; Jul: 2 ; Aug: ; Sep: 
ISP: 2 (Apr: 0 ; May:  ; Jun:  ; Jul: 2 ; Aug: ; Sep: 

New Brunswick: 14 (Apr: 0 ; May: 4  ; Jun: 3; Jul: 7 ; Aug: ; Sep: 


89 Degree Days:

TEB: 3
TTN: 3
PHL:  1
New Brunswick: 1
EWR: 2
NYC: 2
ACY: 1
JFK: 
LGA: 2

ISP: 

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2 hours ago, Isotherm said:

 

Why wouldn't you consider 89.5 or warmer a 90 degree day?

Cause to me, 90 is 90 or higher.  I think the NWS should stop rounding up and report Temp and DP with tenths of a degree, I am sure all the equipment can do it at reporting sites.  I'd rather be precise with a temp observation, but I am sure with the NWS I will never see that happen in my lifetime.

And only 89.3 for the high today in Muttontown, so no heat wave, if one was to round up.

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Looks like the key to the max heat potential later this week and weekend will be how strong the ridge is able to build.

The main problem this summer so far has been the ridge not being strong enough to to keep debris clouds and thunderstorms away.

So we'll see if the ridge can poke far enough East later this week and weekend to finally see the first 100 since 2013

or clouds and convection limit us to upper 90''s maxes.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Looks like the key to the max heat potential later this week and weekend will be how strong the ridge is able to build.

The main problem this summer so far has been the ridge not being strong enough to to keep debris clouds and thunderstorms away.

So we'll see if the ridge can poke far enough East later this week and weekend to finally see the first 100 since 2013

or clouds and convection limit us to upper 90''s maxes.

Excellent points.  Even starting with today, clouds are already into or nearing C-PA.  Looks like a close call for most areas, including the park to get to there hottest temps of the year (so far)  before clouds arrive between 1 and 2PM.

 

2xne_vi_anim.gif 

 

2xne_sf_anim.gif

 

shd_None_anim.gif

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Mesoscale Discussion 1317
< Previous MD
MD 1317 graphic
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1317
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1040 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF MA / RI / CT / ERN AND SRN NY / NRN NJ /
   ERN AND SERN PA / NRN MD AND DE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 181540Z - 181715Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP PREFERENTIALLY ON THE LEAD
   GUST FRONT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE.  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED /80 PERCENT/ FOR THE AREA GENERALLY INCLUDING
   AN AREA FROM NRN NJ/NERN PA INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND.  FARTHER S...THE
   SEVERE THREAT MAY BE LESS ORGANIZED AND THE PROBABILITY FOR A SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR SERN PA INTO MD IS 40 PERCENT.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE-SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS
   CLUSTERS OF STORMS OVER SWRN PA AND ANOTHER CLUSTER OVER N-CNTRL PA
   AND S-CNTRL NY.  WEAKENING OUTFLOW FROM THIS EARLY-DAY CONVECTION IS
   GRADUALLY PROGRESSING E OVER CNTRL PA INTO SRN PORTIONS OF NY.  THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF AREA HAS WARMED CONSIDERABLY WITH TEMPS
   AROUND 90 DEG F OVER MA/CT SWD INTO DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY.  ADEQUATE
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S ARE ALSO
   CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK BUOYANCY /500-1000 J PER KG MLCAPE PER MODIFIED
   12Z RAOBS/ WITH ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED.  THE STRONGER
   0-6 KM SHEAR IS FORECAST FROM PORTIONS OF NERN PA AND NRN NJ NWD
   INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND /25-35 KT/.  AS A RESULT...STORMS WILL PROBABLY
   ACQUIRE SOME STORM ORGANIZATION IN THE FORM OF ORGANIZED MULTICELLS
   WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.  THE THREAT FOR ISOLD WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
   THE PRIMARY HAZARD BUT SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR ON A VERY LOCALIZED
   BASIS AS WELL.  

   FARTHER S IN S-CNTRL PA AND MD EWD INTO THE DELAWARE RIVER
   VALLEY...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS THE STORMS
   MOVE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  WLY MEAN FLOW AROUND 25 KT AND
   STEEP 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES /8-9 DEG C PER KM/ MAY COMBINE TO YIELD
   SEVERAL STRONGER STORMS AND/OR SMALL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF AN ISOLD
   THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE.

   ..SMITH/HART.. 07/18/2016
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