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July 2016 Discussions/Observations


Rtd208

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HRRR-15 identifying the 12:30---3:30pm period as the most likely time frame for any possible showers today.  It did OK yesterday, but only because it is a'convection happy' model and yesterday we had some.   Waiting for the day it shows nothing while the other outputs are sceaming convection----and it scores a coup.

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20 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

HRRR-15 identifying the 12:30---3:30pm period as the most likely time frame for any possible showers today.  It did OK yesterday, but only because it is a'convection happy' model and yesterday we had some.   Waiting for the day it shows nothing while the other outputs are sceaming convection----and it scores a coup.

The 12z NAM is on board.

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_4.png

 

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_5.png

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_7.png

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19 minutes ago, Michael05192016 said:

Any chances for isolated thunderstorms later this afternoon around the NYC area?

From Upton's latest AFD:

Added isolated thunderstorms into the forecast for today. There
is a weak mid level piece of energy currently coming out of
eastern Pennsylvania per satellite, radar and model analysis. The
12Z run of the NAM is keying on this feature as a potential
trigger. In addition to the mid level wave, there is a surface
trough laying across the region. The greatest threat for a strong
storm looks to be across the eastern third of the forecast area
where there is higher CAPE environment.
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