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July 2016 Discussions/Observations


Rtd208

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On the 00Z Euro and GFS say goodbye to any long duration big heat. Looks like big Eastern trough signal emerging around 7/20-7/25. The pattern is not changing at all here. The CFS still looks cool for August. What I think will be the big story is a remote risk of a direct hurricane impact later down the road with the persistent trough just west of the area.

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On the 00Z Euro and GFS say goodbye to any long duration big heat. Looks like big Eastern trough signal emerging around 7/20-7/25. The pattern is not changing at all here. The CFS still looks cool for August. What I think will be the big story is a remote risk of a direct hurricane impact later down the road with the persistent trough just west of the area.

That's a great setup. Since we are the new hurricane hotspot of the country due to climate change I say we are due

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The climate change relating to warming sea surface temperatures?

Yes for now. In my opinion we see the northern Atlantic cool big time as global warming increases and melt water from Greenland enhances the Labrador current.

Before then... It's game on again: I'm not saying this year for say but in the next decade we should see another Irene. (Sandy is far far far less likely)

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The big temperature story continues to be the departures running smaller positives or closer

to normal following the record May to March Super El Nino run of historic warmth.

 

Newark

 

7/16....-0.3 so far

6/16....+0.5

5/16....+0.1

4/16.....+0.3

3/16.....+7.0

12/15...+13.3

11/15...+5.2

9/15.....+5.2

5/15.....+5.5

Makes sense-the nino which overwhelmed the +PDO started to fade in March/April allowing the +PDO to once again take over and resume the pattern since summer 2014-cooler summers than the epic torches of 2010-13

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Makes sense-the nino which overwhelmed the +PDO started to fade in March/April allowing the +PDO to once again take over and resume the pattern since summer 2014-cooler summers than the epic torches of 2010-13

 

last year was very warm but agreed not excessively hot.  Longest stretch of 80(+) days in NYC - DC Jul-Aug-Sep.  Warmer/steamier stretch later next week reminds me of end of Jun 2013 before the WAR built west that July.  Perhaps similar progression late Jul/early Aug. 

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July 21st and 22nd is the peak of the summer with the most 100 degree days in one cluster...the last two years had its hottest temperature in September...that did not happen for years until 2014 and 2015...

NYC's highest temperature and month.

2015...........97.................September

2014...........92.................September

2013...........98.................July
2012...........100...............July
2011...........104...............July
2010...........103...............July
2009...........92.................April/Aug.
2008...........96.................June/July
2007...........92.................July/August
2006...........97.................August
2005...........99.................August
2004...........91.................June
2003...........94.................July
2002...........98.................August
2001...........103...............August
2000...........93.................May
1999...........101...............July
1998...........93.................July
1997...........97.................July
1996...........96.................May
1995...........102...............July
1994...........98.................June
1993...........102...............July
1992...........93.................May/July
1991...........102...............July
1990...........95.................July
1989...........96.................July
1988...........99.................July/Aug.
1987...........97.................May
1986...........98.................July
1985...........95.................August
1984...........96.................June
1983...........99.................September
1982...........98.................July
1981...........96.................July
1980...........102...............July
1979...........95.................July/Aug.
1978...........95.................July
1977...........104...............July
1976...........96.................April
1975...........98.................August
1974...........95.................July
1973...........98.................August
1972...........94.................July/Aug.
1971...........96.................July
1970...........94.................July/Aug/Sept.
1969...........97.................May
1968...........98.................July
1967...........96.................June
1966...........103...............July
1965...........95.................June
1964...........99.................June/July
1963...........98.................July
1962...........99.................May.
1961...........97.................July
1960...........91.................July/Aug.
1959...........97.................June
1958...........93.................July
..
Some other years...
1881...........101...............September
1895...........97.................September
1898...........100...............July
1901...........100...............July
1902...........90................July
1911...........100...............July
1914...........95.................September
1915...........94.................September
1918...........104...............August
1921...........96.................September
1925...........99.................June
1926...........100...............July

1929...........99.................September
1930...........102...............July
1931...........99.................September
1932...........96.................September
1933...........102...............July
1934...........101...............June
1936...........106...............July
1937...........102...............July
1944...........102...............August
1948...........103...............August
1949...........102...............July
1950...........95.................June
1952...........100...............June
1953...........102...............September
1954...........100...............July
1955...........100...............July/Aug.
1957...........101...............July
The latest date for the hottest annual temperature is 97 on 9/23/1895...
95 on 9/22/1914 99 9/11/1983...The earliest date is 96 on 4/18/1976...

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