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July 2016 General Discussion


Hoosier

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Looks like ridging really tries to build in the extended. Going to have to watch the trends and see if it gets blunted over time/convection plays spoiler. If not, it could get pretty hot.

Either hot or storms, definitely doesn't look cool at all.
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Nathan at IWX making a note in his discussion this morning of the Hoosier Death Ridge.

 

"Looking ahead, some increasing signal in medium range models appears to be developing
for increasing heat outside of this forecast period in the Day 8-Day 10 timeframe."

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Nice soaker this morning with the complex that rolled in from the Dakotas around 4am. Had some nice house rattling boomers and some vivid lightning. Humidity in full force today. Speaking of gardens, my tomato plants got their first fruit to pop yesterday. Cucumbers and bell peppers going gangbusters too.

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Nice soaker this morning with the complex that rolled in from the Dakotas around 4am. Had some nice house rattling boomers and some vivid lightning. Humidity in full force today. Speaking of gardens, my tomato plants got their first fruit to pop yesterday. Cucumbers and bell p

started my garden early inside the house.  my tom's are loaded down and my peppers have some decent sized ones too... beans are cuc's blooming as well. lettuce heads getting round.

my house is cedar and the back deck faces south, so the sun radiating off the wood of the house gives the garden extra warmth even when the actual temp is cool.  great place to garden I'm finding.

rain and heat this week looking good!

 

post-41-0-71785000-1468165873_thumb.jpg

 

post-41-0-92756200-1468165893_thumb.jpg

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Nathan at IWX making a note in his discussion this morning of the Hoosier Death Ridge.

 

"Looking ahead, some increasing signal in medium range models appears to be developing

for increasing heat outside of this forecast period in the Day 8-Day 10 timeframe."

 

 

LOT took notice too

 

MODEL GUIDANCE IS EVEN SUGGESTING THE  POSSIBILITY OF SOME EXTREME HEAT BY THE START OF THE WEEK OF JULY  16TH. CURRENTLY, ALTHOUGH THIS IS WAY OUT THERE, AND EVEN BEYOND  THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD, THERE IS CERTAINLY A GOOD SIGNAL THAT  A POTENT SUMMER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COULD DEVELOP OVER THE MID-  MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD POSSIBLY LEADING TO  TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S. A LOT CAN HAPPEN BETWEEN NOW AND  THEN, WHICH COULD DRASTICALLY IMPACT WHERE THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS  SET UP, SO THIS WILL HAVE TO MONITORED THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK.  
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This ridge building episode looks more impressive than the last one did at this distance (which ultimately didn't quite pan out).  Euro/GFS are trying to put the core of the high heights in the sub...you're not getting convection if that happens.  I noticed the GGEM is more subdued with more convective threats...it was last time too and guess what, it was on the right track.  Certainly can't lock anything in yet.  Would like to get it within 4-5 days.

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Nathan at IWX making a note in his discussion this morning of the Hoosier/Stebo Death Ridge.

 

"Looking ahead, some increasing signal in medium range models appears to be developing

for increasing heat outside of this forecast period in the Day 8-Day 10 timeframe."

 

I had to rename the upcoming heat wave. I almost forgot that Stebo has been calling for warmth for the last half of the month/backloaded summer. The GFS continues the large super ridge beginning early next week and continuing through 384.

 

I think it's gonna happen even though Alek gives reasons for it to get squashed.

 

post-830-0-31852000-1468189517_thumb.png

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I had to rename the upcoming heat wave. I almost forgot that Stebo has been calling for warmth for the last half of the month/backloaded summer. The GFS continues the large super ridge beginning early next week and continuing through 384.

 

I think it's gonna happen even though Alek gives reasons for it to get squashed.

 

attachicon.gifgfs_z500_mslp_us_35.png

After seeing last week's ridge get knocked down, I am a bit more subdued with this one. That being said if the ridge does show like the Euro/GFS shows we would be looking at some of the hottest weather in the last couple years.

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Euro/GFS ensembles support the general idea of a big ridge in the central US.  They are a bit less impressive than the op runs but I would expect that, given the unusual magnitude of the ridging that the op runs are suggesting.  

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After seeing last week's ridge get knocked down, I am a bit more subdued with this one. That being said if the ridge does show like the Euro/GFS shows we would be looking at some of the hottest weather in the last couple years.

 

The 18z GFS op shows the ridge holding strong for a few days, then retrograding late next week. It would still give us 4 days of torch, followed by a ROF setup.

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After seeing last week's ridge get knocked down, I am a bit more subdued with this one. That being said if the ridge does show like the Euro/GFS shows we would be looking at some of the hottest weather in the last couple years.

Since the scorching summer of 2012, number of 90F+ days has continuously been below normal and the hot days that we do get are pretty weak.

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Since the scorching summer of 2012, number of 90F+ days has continuously been below normal and the hot days that we do get are pretty weak.

Pattern is changing now though which would make sense for something different compared to the last 3 summers.

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