RyanDe680 Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 when you're good, you're good LOL at a 9 day map. Sounds like winter time with Euro snowfall totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 1, 2016 Author Share Posted July 1, 2016 Been looking at the GFS forecast soundings for the upcoming heat, and it seems to have fairly shallow mixing in many areas of the sub...generally below 850 mb which prevents that furnace air from being realized over a bigger area. Not sure if this is a model error and the real profile will be more mixed (I tend to think it could since it has done this in the past, but just a hunch). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Been looking at the GFS forecast soundings for the upcoming heat, and it seems to have fairly shallow mixing in many areas of the sub...generally below 850 mb which prevents that furnace air from being realized over a bigger area. Not sure if this is a model error and the real profile will be more mixed (I tend to think it could since it has done this in the past, but just a hunch). Well I look at it this way, it is all relative, if things don't mix as high you have 90/80 or if they do mix out more 95/75 or even higher. GFS certainly isn't backing off of the high dp. Euro is lower with dp and so the temps are closer to 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 1, 2016 Author Share Posted July 1, 2016 Well I look at it this way, it is all relative, if things don't mix as high you have 90/80 or if they do mix out more 95/75 or even higher. GFS certainly isn't backing off of the high dp. Euro is lower with dp and so the temps are closer to 100. The HRRR will be fun to watch given that model's tendencies with aggressive mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 The HRRR will be fun to watch given that model's tendencies with aggressive mixing. Lol ya it will show 110 somewhere in C IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 1, 2016 Author Share Posted July 1, 2016 Not having a problem mixing out farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 when you're good, you're good How about showing the 4 days before that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Very nice day today. 68° with dew point falling towards the upper 40s again. Yeah lows won't be that high until soil moisture is boosted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 How about showing the 4 days before that? Nah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 1, 2016 Author Share Posted July 1, 2016 Noticed the 12z ECMWF was pretty convective happy as the heat tries to come in. The GFS not nearly as much with more impressive ridging. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Noticed the 12z ECMWF was pretty convective happy as the heat tries to come in. The GFS not nearly as much with more impressive ridging. Something to watch. With rising heights I would suspect the Euro is overdoing it a bit. However that would be a nice alternative if we don't end up scorching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 I've been thinking for past few days that overall ridge placement next week is favorable for ROF type MCS activity, with it being fairly flat and centered south of us. This far out, models are obviously struggling with timing and placement of subtle waves, but I'd be surprised if we don't get a round or two of decent convection around here mid to late next week. Looks like midlevel flow could be decent at times too, so if that occurs well timed with any of the waves coming across, would likely have a decent severe threat too. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Mid 70s with mid 50 dews today. Noice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 2, 2016 Share Posted July 2, 2016 Today felt more like the first day of September than July. High of 69°, dew points in the upper 40s during the afternoon. Down to 55° already with light winds. Looked at the corn around here more closely. A lot of it is in the 2-3 foot stage. Definitely shorter than this time last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 2, 2016 Share Posted July 2, 2016 Alek won't want to look at the 0z GFS. It's torch city starting the 7th and several days after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted July 2, 2016 Share Posted July 2, 2016 Already down to a chilly 60 degrees, feels great outside. Looking at the weather for the weekend you would not think it's 4th of July weekend, Sunday with a forecasted high of 66. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 2, 2016 Share Posted July 2, 2016 Alek won't want to look at the 0z GFS. It's torch city starting the 7th and several days after. To me it would start the 6th, but that's my opinion. Then another break starting the 13th. Down to 53° here. Can't beat the forecast this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 2, 2016 Author Share Posted July 2, 2016 Alek won't want to look at the 0z GFS. It's torch city starting the 7th and several days after. Yeah big change on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 2, 2016 Author Share Posted July 2, 2016 Down to 54 here. Might have a shot to sneak into the 40s...gonna be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted July 2, 2016 Share Posted July 2, 2016 Interesting disco from DMX pertaining next week. The system responsible for the heavy rain threat tonight will pushoff to the east on Sunday/Sunday night. For much of next week thesubsequent 500 mb flow will be characterized by broad highpressure across the southern U.S. and fairly swift zonal flowacross the north. This will result in a classic "ring of fire"scenario for our region. Within this regime several subtleshortwaves moving through the zonal flow will kick off multiplerounds of convection, with probability largely maximized duringthe peak heating and overnight hours, and a generally stationaryboundary setting up, enhanced by and wobbling around due to therounds of thunderstorms. These situations are notoriouslydifficult to pin down in terms of details given the subtlety ofthe forcing features and the fact that each round of storms isdependent on the one before it. However, the large scale patterndoes appear to support Iowa being under the gun and there iscertainly some threat of active/severe weather at times betweenlate Tuesday and Friday. For now will maintain broad chance POPsfor about the latter half of next week and monitor in the comingdays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted July 2, 2016 Share Posted July 2, 2016 It is currently 64 degrees, under heavy overcast, I wonder how rare it is to have back to back sub 70 degree highs in July. One thing I've noticed this year is lack of mosquitoes, not complaining though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 2, 2016 Author Share Posted July 2, 2016 It is currently 64 degrees, under heavy overcast, I wonder how rare it is to have back to back sub 70 degree highs in July. One thing I've noticed this year is lack of mosquitoes, not complaining though. It's happened twice at Urbana. 7/12/1975: 69 7/13/1975: 69 7/13/1990: 68 7/14/1990: 69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 2, 2016 Share Posted July 2, 2016 2009 was an awful summer to be sure. EDIT: Woops you guys were talking about that in the other thread not this one. 68/49 currently with mid-level overcast. Feels like fall is right around the corner lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 2, 2016 Share Posted July 2, 2016 looks to get active/wet again into the extended...nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted July 2, 2016 Share Posted July 2, 2016 Before I did my usual wxbell March cancellation, JB was bull-horning a dramatic flip to a hot dry summer starting in May, targeting the lower lakes, northern OV. I wonder how he's been twisting out of that one. I'm guessing the delayed but not denied card? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted July 2, 2016 Share Posted July 2, 2016 Before I did my usual wxbell March cancellation, JB was bull-horning a dramatic flip to a hot dry summer starting in May, targeting the lower lakes, northern OV. I wonder how he's been twisting out of that one. I'm guessing the delayed but not denied card? No his new quote is "no denying the earth is frying" until his call of spike in global temps fails too, said the globe is going to cool majorly due to record El Niño Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 3, 2016 Share Posted July 3, 2016 Today was cloudy, calm, and upper 60s to near 70. I love having a few days like this during summer... perfect for sitting outside or taking a walk to a nearby creek. Tomorrow will be a repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted July 3, 2016 Share Posted July 3, 2016 It's happened twice at Urbana. 7/12/1975: 69 7/13/1975: 69 7/13/1990: 68 7/14/1990: 69 Thanks for that, this weekend could truly be some rare air then. Looks like yesterday only managed 65 for a high. This morning it's 58 degrees and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted July 3, 2016 Share Posted July 3, 2016 Adding to previous post, yesterday's high was 20 degrees below average, with a transient pattern coming up, those calling for July to be the hottest month might not verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 3, 2016 Share Posted July 3, 2016 Adding to previous post, yesterday's high was 20 degrees below average, with a transient pattern coming up, those calling for July to be the hottest month might not verify. 00z GFS and GGEM at least say don't be so sure about that. It may not be the hottest July ever, but I predict with confidence this be the hottest July we've seen since 2010-2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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