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July 2016 General Discussion


Hoosier

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41 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I'm back, after a few days in the hospital (bowels issue) :( .  I'm still a bit weak, so being outside in this extreme heat drains me very quickly.  This afternoon the heat index here in the city has been in the upper 110s.  I think that's the highest since 1995.  In 2012 the temp was 10 degrees higher, but the dewpoint was 25 degrees lower.  This kind of sauna heat is way worse.

Glad you're better.  According to the MesoWest site CID hit 84 at some point this afternoon.  Crazy.

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58 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I'm back, after a few days in the hospital (bowels issue) :( .  I'm still a bit weak, so being outside in this extreme heat drains me very quickly.  This afternoon the heat index here in the city has been in the upper 110s.  I think that's the highest since 1995.  In 2012 the temp was 10 degrees higher, but the dewpoint was 25 degrees lower.  This kind of sauna heat is way worse.

Glad you're feeling better.  Always like to see your posts as you are one of our farthest west posters to give us all a heads up on what's coming.  But think you'll miss out on that MCS that will pound Chicago this evening and maybe swing down Indpls way by morning.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED   NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL   627 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016       UPDATE     625 PM CDT     FORECAST UPDATED TO REFLECT THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST   INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN   ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.     NEXT MCS IN THE "RING OF FIRE" PATTERN IS EVOLVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST   IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. SATELLITE HAS SHOWN CONTINUED COOLING   CLOUD TOPS WITH AS COOL AS -76C RECENTLY. RADAR TRENDS SHOW   FINGERS OF SEVERE WINDS, INCLUDING A GRADUALLY MORE DEFINED REAR   INFLOW JET APPROACHING KMKX WITH 80 KT AT 2000 FT. ON THE WESTERN   EDGE THIS AREA HAS NOT BEEN AS PROGRESSIVE, PROBABLY DUE TO   CAPPING PRESENT ON THE 00Z DVN SOUNDING. HOWEVER OTHER SLOW-MOVING   CELLS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AND LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO AS A 25 KT   SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO FEED INTO THAT AREA.     OVERALL EXPECT THIS MCS TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO HIGH MUCAPE AIR   (2500-4000 J/KG) WITH AT LEAST A SCATTERED SEVERE WIND THREAT AS   WELL AS SOME FLASH FLOODING THREAT IN THE CWA. THE WIND THREAT   WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN ANY BOWING SEGMENTS AND THERE IS SOME   UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER ONE BOW WILL PREVAIL OR IF OCCASIONAL   SMALL-SCALE BOWS WILL BE MORE FAVORED. SUCH SEGMENTS MAY BE MORE   FAVORED TO BOW DUE SOUTH BY THE TIME THIS AREA OF STORMS GETS INTO   NORTHERN ILLINOIS, AS THE INSTABILITY AXIS IS SLOPED MORE NORTH-   SOUTH DUE HEAVILY TO EARLIER AFTERNOON STORMS AND ASSOCIATED   OUTFLOW. THE QLCS THREAT LOOKS PRETTY LIMITED BUT WILL HAVE TO   WATCH STORM PROPAGATION RELATIVE TO THE SHEAR VECTORS AND ANY   INGESTING CELL INTERACTIONS. HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL BE A   DEFINITE AND MOST PROBLEMATIC IN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS BOW   WHERE PROPAGATION VECTORS ARE WEAKEST. ALREADY SAW A QUICK TWO TO   FOUR INCHES WITH A STORM EARLIER IN JASPER COUNTY, INDIANA WITHIN   THIS AIR MASS.  

 

  THE TIMING OF THE STORMS INTO DOWNTOWN CHICAGO SEEMS MOST FAVORED   WITHIN THE 815 PM TO 1000 PM WINDOW.  

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9 hours ago, madwx said:

Look to get narrowly missed by this line of rain in Madison.  Only 1.01" so far this month.  Glad that areas northeast of here are getting it though, they really needed the rain. 

 

Beautiful shelf cloud in Sheboygan.  Found this on twitter posted by @Sheboyganweathr

Cn5WtWiWgAAKl6m.jpg-large.jpg

Should now have at least 3 times as much rain for the month now, and I'm sure you had some of your own awesome shelf cloud views.

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7 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

This was an easy call underperforming heat wave. Tomorrow will be a struggle as well.

Only topped out at 89F. Too many underperforming high temperatures so far this month and is predestined to be the case again over the next several days. This is not the summer for heat waves nor the July for 90+ days. NWS of Wilmington, OH issued an Excessive Heat Warning for tomorrow through Saturday, but I can just look forward to it getting cancelled anyway due to any convection and MCS.

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That MCS might have some legs, especially since there's still 20-30kt of eff. bulk shear and 5k+ mucape in front of it. The SW flank looks very flash-flood prone with that SW'ly 850 transport over the cold pool, steep mid-level lapse rates and widespread 80+F dews. The mid-level flow veers with time as it heads south, so might see the complex follow suit before it finally weakens.

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1 hour ago, Powerball said:

Should now have at least 3 times as much rain for the month now, and I'm sure you had some of your own awesome shelf cloud views.

Yeah a good amount of street flooding here, the shelf actually wasn't too impressive over Madison but got some cool sunset and mammatus photos.

IMAG0085.jpg

IMAG0091.jpg

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Went out and shot lightning for awhile. Was west of town looking east back towards town when I noticed a huge brown flash that lit up the eastern sky.  Lasted a good 10-15 seconds.  Soon after I seen the lights in the distance go dark lol.  Got back a little while ago and sure enough power is out. Arrgg.  Had to dig out the laptop that I haven't charged in awhile.  Prob don't have much juice left.

Getting some heavy rain, but nothing too crazy.  The storms are all undercut, so even though there's high PWs most of the rain isn't really falling from very heavy cores.  Getting close to a half inch though.  Puts us well over 4 inches for July.

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