Powerball Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 Saturday is looking like it could be a sneaky "cool" day for Chicago and Detroit proper (thanks to better penetration of the lake breezes) if current model trends with bringing the front further SW continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 Looks like there could be some heavy convection Friday afternoon/evening in the region, definitely would hamper the heat, and storms that do develop could easily go severe. Wouldn't be surprised if the excessive heat warning is extended through Saturday for many south of the IL/WI border too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 GFS must be from the land of make believe tonight, has a MCS moving from Toronto to Chicago. I will just file that under "never going to happen". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 Totally drenched in sweat after an hour of mowing in the 82/77 conditions earlier this eve. Can't imagine how bad it would have been if I had waited till tomorrow evening. Not a breath of wind while mowing along with mosquitoes made it pretty miserable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: 00z NAM went nuts and has heat indices of 120-125 in Iowa on Friday. *%#$@*^##!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 58 minutes ago, Stebo said: GFS must be from the land of make believe tonight, has a MCS moving from Toronto to Chicago. I will just file that under "never going to happen". That would be wild lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 2 hours ago, Stebo said: GFS must be from the land of make believe tonight, has a MCS moving from Toronto to Chicago. I will just file that under "never going to happen". Why would a model based on physics show that? Is the mean flow ever E to W like that at our latitude? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 Just now, Torchageddon said: Why would a model based on physics show that? Is the mean flow ever E to W like that at our latitude? Honestly I don't know, it certainly isn't in the model itself. I mean it is diving toward the best instability but that is about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 2 hours ago, Stebo said: GFS must be from the land of make believe tonight, has a MCS moving from Toronto to Chicago. I will just file that under "never going to happen". 4km NAM, GGEM / RGEM and the NAM are similar. And I don't so much see an E to W moving MCS, but more like stronger storms now backbuilding further west along the cold front, which seems plausible if the heights do end up flattening as models are now beginning to show. And actually, if you think those solutions are wild, don't look at the NMM and ARW. But specifics aside, the key consensus amongst most of the Hi-Res models seems to be that we yet again get ****ed in the ass one way or another in terms of severe weather potential (no surprises there). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 never good to start the day cloudy when you're chasing the upper 90s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 Welp, clear skies and 81 overnight turned into strong storms and 68 instead. It's going to take a lot of recovery to get to the mid and upper 90s today now. A shot at 100 is definitely out of the question. Cams even showing more storms later today as well. Total mucked up forecast with bust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 starting to wonder if we even get much above 90 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 HRRR has the area that's about to get hit by strong storms in central WI hitting 105 today lol. Yeah that's gonna happen. Already a muggy 76/75 here. Even this far southwest we're going to have cloud issues today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 For what it's worth, WRF-ARW has that MCS take a nose dive south & bring it though the rest of Wisconsin & northern Illinois this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 MCS over central Wisconsin looking relatively healthy considering the diurnally unfavorable time of day. Mesoanalysis showing best instability and deep moisture to its southwest and south so it's going to be interesting to see just how much (if any) it's able to turn into the better airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 NAM totally misses the WI/MI complex on initiation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 Lol at the NAM. Initiation of the 13z HRRR missed the ongoing/growing line north of St Cloud that is moving ESE. Cams really striking out this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
therock Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 Holy moly it is humid around here. Dewpoint hovering around 79 all night at KCID. The garage floor is sweating. Oh, and, I'm a long-time lurker and finally joined. You guys are great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 cool, keep posting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 As I mentioned earlier in the complaint thread, the CAMS have really sucked this severe season. Guess I'll just watch the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 Dew of 77F all night..low of 80F in La Crosse...first one this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 Digging the clouds and breeze this AM. Lets see how we can find every way to miss the rain again for the 3rd week in a row of decent setups. Yesterday was as fine of a secret beach day as ever to cool off and play and chill. Sorry to Facebook pictures you to death lol.. but i figured why not show off my best friend and most beautiful summer day around water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 Look to get narrowly missed by this line of rain in Madison. Only 1.01" so far this month. Glad that areas northeast of here are getting it though, they really needed the rain. Beautiful shelf cloud in Sheboygan. Found this on twitter posted by @Sheboyganweathr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 Yeah just seen that shelf cloud on the news here.. Jealous of the rain to the north but wouldn't be happy with no power in this heat either.. so yeah they can have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 Instant sweat outside at 85/79. Like ALEK, not sold on mid-90's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 Not too sure that today won't be a bust for parts of IL/WI in terms of temperatures. New development. In NW IL and that MCS tracking SE could keep temps down for many. No real way to tell as CAMs have been all over the place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 86/80/101 right now. Gross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 Are there still thoughts by some its a roaster to end July and i would assume a Warmer Aug. is a good probability? I don't follow the long rang models and such so I'm just going on the reading and vibe from you pro's! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 Currently 82/71/88. I'd hardly call that excessive heat. Getting to 96 at this point is unlikely with a band of convection to the north that is sagging south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 48 minutes ago, Chitown Storm said: Currently 82/71/88. I'd hardly call that excessive heat. Getting to 96 at this point is unlikely with a band of convection to the north that is sagging south Yeah, overnight convection boned you. 89/82/110 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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