Hoosier Posted July 19, 2016 Author Share Posted July 19, 2016 12z Euro actually has that Thursday night complex moving southwest around the ridge, and then it turns almost due west as it moves across IN/IL and into IA. I've seen something like that before but not to that extent. Would be pretty cool to actually see that take place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 everything in this pattern has cut and subtle waves always deliver euro only in the 80s on Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 19, 2016 Author Share Posted July 19, 2016 a big fwiw. click for animation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 most models have a synoptic picture that would support that kind of hard right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 19, 2016 Author Share Posted July 19, 2016 Friday is definitely becoming a bit muddled compared to earlier, whether it's this hard turning system that the Euro has or other convective potential. Wonder if we will start to see some of this uncertainty addressed in the afternoon discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 19, 2016 Author Share Posted July 19, 2016 ILX extended the excessive heat watch into Saturday and apparently they aren't buying the ECMWF THE ECMWF EVEN RETROGRADES SOME STORMS INTO NORTHERN IL ON FRIDAY, PROGRESSING THEM FROM THE NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. A CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD HELP TO KEEP OUR AREA FREE FROM STORMS ON FRIDAY. SATURDAY HAS INCREASED CONVECTION INDICATED ACROSS MOST OF IL IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF, BUT WE STILL EXPECT VERY WARM 700MB TEMPS TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR MOST OF THE DAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 19, 2016 Author Share Posted July 19, 2016 Good afternoon afd from LOT hitting the potential scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: most models have a synoptic picture that would support that kind of hard right A right turn yes, a turn moving back SW or W, no. You don't get MCS moving opposite of the mean flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 you can in the progged thickness pattern on thursday night/friday if activity builds into higher instability. ecm isn't the only guidance showing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: CMC for 18z Friday with a raging complex well west over the favored corridor in IA, temps only in the 80s across Chicago we've watch this kind of convective spoiler play out a lot lately, not sure why it's being so strongly discounted Very true, especially with the center of the ridge being well to our SW and the steering flow overhead supporting SE propagating convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 Clouds kept temps cooler today than forecast. Huge rain complex missing to the southwest. We don't need any rain anyway for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 Kind of forgot how hot 2012 really was. We've hit our 10th 90° day of the year, we had 32 of them in 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 That complex in IA/MO today really seems to have stalled the northward movement of the warm front and the focal point of the expected storms tonight. Under a flash flood watch but I bet much of MN doesn't even see any rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 that long-lived cell in northeast ND has the potential to grow upscale this evening with low level jet support. should ride the instability axis or possibly gradient into minnesota. some guidance indicates a warm advective wing that could easily produce flash flooding across the state into western wisconsin, eastern iowa and northwest il overnight into wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 5 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: that long-lived cell in northeast ND has the potential to grow upscale this evening with low level jet support. should ride the instability axis or possibly gradient into minnesota. some guidance indicates a warm advective wing that could easily produce flash flooding across the state into western wisconsin, eastern iowa and northwest il overnight into wednesday morning. That thing is in full beast mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 20, 2016 Author Share Posted July 20, 2016 A michsnowfreak special happened at ORD today. Intrahour high of 91 with the highest hourly temp of 88. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 A michsnowfreak special happened at ORD today. Intrahour high of 91 with the highest hourly temp of 88.The forecasters on shift did check the 1 minute obs that hour but I'm still a bit suspicious considering that it was 3 degrees warmer than MDW, which is rare, and the only 90+ ASOS/AWOS in the CWA today. We'll keep an eye on it the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 20, 2016 Author Share Posted July 20, 2016 20 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: The forecasters on shift did check the 1 minute obs that hour but I'm still a bit suspicious considering that it was 3 degrees warmer than MDW, which is rare, and the only 90+ ASOS/AWOS in the CWA today. We'll keep an eye on it the next few days. Never a good time for an ASOS to act up but ORD going wild during a potentially significant heat wave would suck. Looks like the 00z NAM is relatively convection free in northern IL most of Friday and continues to suggest near 100F potential for Chicago with 925 mb temps approaching 30C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 been a very wet July for IL so far..at least south of I-80 adding to it again today/this evening http://www.isws.illinois.edu/atmos/statecli/current/current.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: A michsnowfreak special happened at ORD today. Intrahour high of 91 with the highest hourly temp of 88. That is a common occurrence at DTW. Does it happen every day? No. But to me more than a 2F intrahour bump seems odd for most cases. Ive beaten the dead horse, but I stick by the mantra that it makes no sense, especially when the nearest stations do not see these intrahour bumps at the times listed, or when they occur at times not typical of peak daytime heating. Didnt you find a website where you can see 5-minute obs? Low temps are usually the lowest hourly temp, sometimes a 1F intrahour bump down, and rarely a 2F bump down. Dont think Ive ever seen a 3F+ intrahour low. On the contrary, seeing a 2F intrahour high is extremely common, a 3F intrahour high is quite common, and I have even seen a rare 4-5F intrahour high. The ridiculousness that is ARB lows and YIP highs is one thing, but Im not a fan of this happening at first order DTW. Stebo has explained the thermometer has been in the same place for decades, as well as the fact that its monitored for calibration errors, yet it still is quite the mystery to me. Not only the fact that it doesnt happen at nearby stations, but the frequent more-than-2F intrahour highs seem to be a trend new to the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 10 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: That is a common occurrence at DTW. Does it happen every day? No. But to me more than a 2F intrahour bump seems odd for most cases. Ive beaten the dead horse, but I stick by the mantra that it makes no sense, especially when the nearest stations do not see these intrahour bumps at the times listed, or when they occur at times not typical of peak daytime heating. Didnt you find a website where you can see 5-minute obs? Low temps are usually the lowest hourly temp, sometimes a 1F intrahour bump down, and rarely a 2F bump down. Dont think Ive ever seen a 3F+ intrahour low. On the contrary, seeing a 2F intrahour high is extremely common, a 3F intrahour high is quite common, and I have even seen a rare 4-5F intrahour high. The ridiculousness that is ARB lows and YIP highs is one thing, but Im not a fan of this happening at first order DTW. Stebo has explained the thermometer has been in the same place for decades, as well as the fact that its monitored for calibration errors, yet it still is quite the mystery to me. Not only the fact that it doesnt happen at nearby stations, but the frequent more-than-2F intrahour highs seem to be a trend new to the last few years. http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/mesomap.cgi?state=IL&rawsflag=3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 NAM keeps temps for Thu in the 93-94 range for the QCA, but has dews near 80. Upper 90s for Fri with mid 70 dews. Friday is definitely looking like the hottest day here if the cloud debris can stay away. Highest heat index may actually occur Thu though if we achieve 80 degree dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 Even a 96/80 scenario would be rare. We'll be cutting the air with a knife on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 20, 2016 Author Share Posted July 20, 2016 4 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said: Even a 96/80 scenario would be rare. We'll be cutting the air with a knife on Friday. This is a "heat index" heat wave more than one with super impressive max temps. NAM has a max heat index of about 112F for ORD. One of the things that was found in Chicago's 1995 heat wave is that the effects (death toll) accelerated as time went on, as heat has a cumulative effect on the body. Really one of the great weather tragedies of the 20th century and it was a tough lesson to have to learn. The high moisture content airmass/UHI should keep nighttime temps pretty high around the city. Of course convection could alter the scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 Seeing some of the heat indices forecast sent me looking back at that amazing '95 heatwave. Still the hottest heat index I've ever experienced at 122. Was living in the QC at the time. MLI had 100/80/122 at 5pm on 7/13/95. Temp dropped back a few degrees after that, but the dew ended up spiking at 82. That's insane for such intense heat. Had 6 consecutive hours AOA 80 dew. From MLI that day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 Day 2 Slight Risk for most of Southern Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 We won't even hit 90 on Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 DVN lowered point a few degrees for both Thu and Fri here. Disco mentioned possible convection concerns both days. Nice towers on the west horizon this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 Absolutely no rain in the previous flash flood watch area. I saw that one coming. Temps tonight might not drop below 80 in the metro with dew points 70-75. Double urban heat island in full effect. Heat index of 110-115 looks like a lock for tomorrow. All-time record is 119. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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