Powerball Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 GFS is showing pretty extreme instability on Friday (even cutting it in half would still be impressive). Sneakily, it could be Detroit's best shot for severe weather this season if there''s a shortwave that also passes through (similar to July 4th-5th, 2012) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 19, 2016 Author Share Posted July 19, 2016 28 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Can't wait until we're within RAP's range. Will probably show a huge swath of 110+ all over the MW lol. HRRR too. They will look apocalyptic. I still have some of those crazy model images from 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 Yankton, South Dakota extended forecast. Listed are highs and lows, that is, NWS point forecast. Average high/low is 87/62. Thursday should be 15 degrees above average (including high and low) and could be quite dangerous to the elderly. The NAM has 105/72/116 there on Thursday. Yuck. Tue 92/72 Wed 100/76 Thu 102/77 Fri 98/75 Sat 90/72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 19, 2016 Author Share Posted July 19, 2016 Since the official observation site for Chicago moved to O'Hare in 1980, there have been 13 days in which the heat index was above 110F with an air temperature of at least 95F. I set a temperature criteria to make it a little easier to seek out the extreme heat index days, so I know I am likely going to be missing some sub-95 degree days in which the heat index exceeded 110F, but I would imagine there aren't a lot of those. The high heat index days are listed below, along with the temperature/dewpoint combination that produced them. Certainly have a shot to reach the 95+ degree / >110F heat index threshold later this week. 7/22/1983: 118F (100/78) 7/13/1995: 118F (100/78) 7/14/1995: 116F (98/78) 7/7/1980: 114F (101/75) 7/21/1983: 114F (96/79) 7/26/1997: 114F (96/79) 7/30/1999: 114F (98/77) 7/29/1999: 113F (95/79) 7/15/1988: 112F (99/75) 7/20/1980: 111F (100/73) 7/19/1989: 111F (95/78) 8/12/1995: 111F (98/75) 6/28/2012: 111F (99/74) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 19, 2016 Author Share Posted July 19, 2016 00z NAM progged heat index values valid 21z Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 7 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 00z NAM progged heat index values valid 21z Thursday That is not even for the hottest day either. Incredible stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 9 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 00z NAM progged heat index values valid 21z Thursday 116F heat index in Eau Claire and the Minneapolis/St.Paul area? Very high dewpoints too. Looks fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 19, 2016 Author Share Posted July 19, 2016 3 minutes ago, Stebo said: That is not even for the hottest day either. Incredible stuff. As if we needed any more boost to the low level moisture, looks like more heavy rain possible in WI/IL/IN/MI on Wednesday into Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 20 minutes ago, Hoosier said: As if we needed any more boost to the low level moisture, looks like more heavy rain possible in WI/IL/IN/MI on Wednesday into Thursday. I hope so, some places still need a lot around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 19, 2016 Author Share Posted July 19, 2016 7 minutes ago, Stebo said: I hope so, some places still need a lot around here. Better signal looks to be farther west at this point. Hopefully whatever happens doesn't turn into some derecho. Last thing anybody needs is to be without power during the heat wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 11 minutes ago, Stebo said: I hope so, some places still need a lot around here. Please take it all. Some areas around here saw 5-6" yesterday, we can't take any more lol. While other places not far away are quite dry. The famous haves and the have nots pattern we see every summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: 00z NAM progged heat index values valid 21z Thursday Unreal temps...That would be just unbearable, and I love the heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 A little bit of rain last night for drought relief but not much. The Buffalo airport is right in the stop where they are 16 inches under normal for rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 19, 2016 Author Share Posted July 19, 2016 Here's a new development. 00z ECMWF drops a convective complex south through IL/IN early Friday, which knocks back the heat. It wasn't really there on the previous run so I'd be skeptical for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 5 hours ago, CoalCityWxMan said: Please take it all. Some areas around here saw 5-6" yesterday, we can't take any more lol. While other places not far away are quite dry. The famous haves and the have nots pattern we see every summer I just saw an example of this yesterday. I was in New Haven, IN (an east side Ft. Wayne suburb) and the grass is dry and crunchy. It looks like they are in a raging drought. Meanwhile, on the southwest side of Ft. Wayne about 8 miles away, the grass is much greener, with only a few brown spots. Here in Huntington, less than 25 miles away, I am having to mow every 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 Friday will underperform due to convective blowoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 Really looking like the persistent NW flow aloft and favorable ridge position should continue the MCS parade across the midwest. Might even be starting to see some positive feedback effects from high local surface moisture within the favored corridor (S. MN, IA, into NC IL). Tues/Wednesday and again Friday look to bring another 3+ rounds to these areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 49 for the low last night was quite cool, nice for sleeping though. With a high of only 75 today and another night forecast down to 50, I'll be keeping the windows open all day today and tonight to trap some cool, dry air in the house before the weekend heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 Excessive heat warning and flash flood watch. Should be a fun few days. Heat indices should hit or exceed 110 with dew points approaching close to 80 tomorrow and Thursday. Pwats tonight jump over 2". Several of the models show 5-7" rain corridors in S MN. Will be a tropical paradise with this rain and then the heat. Holy humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 Not sure on the exact date but I remember back in July 2011 KCMI had a reading of 99/78/117, this stretch could very well rival that. Props to Steve, I'm pretty sure he called for some major heat at the end of July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 19, 2016 Author Share Posted July 19, 2016 12z NAM keeps the Friday complex north and thus takes ORD near 100. Obviously will need to keep an eye on placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 19, 2016 Author Share Posted July 19, 2016 I think there's a decent chance that the heat headlines get extended into Saturday. Was actually a bit surprised that the offices pulled the trigger yesterday afternoon since Thursday-Friday was in the outer periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: 12z NAM keeps the Friday complex north and thus takes ORD near 100. Obviously will need to keep an eye on placement. this will be much closer to reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 19, 2016 Author Share Posted July 19, 2016 12z NAM CIPS analogs for Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 19, 2016 Author Share Posted July 19, 2016 3 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: this will be much closer to reality I'd blend or only go about 30% GFS as it still looks like it's up to its usual trick of having problems handling low level mixing. My opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 32 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I'd blend or only go about 30% GFS as it still looks like it's up to its usual trick of having problems handling low level mixing. My opinion. That and it is the most aggressive with festering convection over S WI/MI and N IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 CMC for 18z Friday with a raging complex well west over the favored corridor in IA, temps only in the 80s across Chicago we've watch this kind of convective spoiler play out a lot lately, not sure why it's being so strongly discounted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 10 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: CMC for 18z Friday with a raging complex well west over the favored corridor in IA, temps only in the 80s across Chicago we've watch this kind of convective spoiler play out a lot lately, not sure why it's being so strongly discounted Digging deep with the Canadian handling any sort of convection correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 19, 2016 Author Share Posted July 19, 2016 If you look at the NAM/GFS, you can see a subtle wave moving through Iowa on Friday. Whether this would be enough to trigger a meaningful area of convection is highly questionable though given warm mid level temps/capping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: If you look at the NAM/GFS, you can see a subtle wave moving through Iowa on Friday. Whether this would be enough to trigger a meaningful area of convection is highly questionable though given warm mid level temps/capping. It won't with those temperatures unless Iowa gets to like 100/80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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