Hoosier Posted June 26, 2016 Share Posted June 26, 2016 Month looks to start off on the cooler side, but how long is the question. New 12z GFS has some heat coming in on the 4th, but that is a significant change from recent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 26, 2016 Share Posted June 26, 2016 Month looks to start off on the cooler side, but how long is the question. New 12z GFS has some heat coming in on the 4th, but that is a significant change from recent runs. Matches the nino to nina change, and matches how things have been thus far. Not surprising that it changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 26, 2016 Author Share Posted June 26, 2016 Matches the nino to nina change, and matches how things have been thus far. Not surprising that it changed. Some people had July/August as warmer than June (relative to average). What do you think about that? The June temperature departures aren't that outrageous so it seems like something that could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 26, 2016 Share Posted June 26, 2016 Some people had July/August as warmer than June (relative to average). What do you think about that? The June temperature departures aren't that outrageous so it seems like something that could happen.I am one of those people, 73/98/07/10 all matched that pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted June 26, 2016 Share Posted June 26, 2016 I am one of those people, 73/98/07/10 all matched that pattern. Wow hopefully not 2007. That August was awfully hot with 3 straight weeks of 100+ temps over a very large part of the country. But I'm afraid you are right though. The 18z GFS is even hotter, at least down in the southeast showing temps of 100+ from 7-5-2016 to the end of it's run. If this run is right, this brings 2007 to the table, along with 1986 at least over NC, GA, and SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 26, 2016 Share Posted June 26, 2016 Wow hopefully not 2007. That August was awfully hot with 3 straight weeks of 100+ temps over a very large part of the country. But I'm afraid you are right though. The 18z GFS is even hotter, at least down in the southeast showing temps of 100+ from 7-5-2016 to the end of it's run. If this run is right, this brings 2007 to the table, along with 1986 at least over NC, GA, and SC. Yeah, just wait until mid to late July when that ridge gets entrenched in the east and becomes an extension of the Bermuda ridge, it will be incredibly hot in the east then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 26, 2016 Share Posted June 26, 2016 Speaking of the 18Z GFS it has the July Severe Weather scenario no ones likes, Severe weather on the night of the 4th. Chicago on the 18Z GFS on the 4th (AKA you wish) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted June 27, 2016 Share Posted June 27, 2016 2007 was nuts. We had our latest 90 degree day on record that year in Detroit on October 8th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 27, 2016 Share Posted June 27, 2016 2007 was nuts. We had our latest 90 degree day on record that year in Detroit on October 8th. Yeah and it was a quiet severe season but had 2 notable tornado events for SEMI, one in late August and the mid October tornado outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 27, 2016 Share Posted June 27, 2016 The last few runs of the GFS has been hinting at an active Pattern through mid July. Lots of chances for severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 27, 2016 Share Posted June 27, 2016 7/4/03 (technically 7/5) redux would be something. 104mph max wind, city decimated, 80k w/o power. http://www.weather.gov/lot/2003_jul5_winds I remember that event, it destroyed my shed and I had no power for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 Get out the boats... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 28, 2016 Author Share Posted June 28, 2016 Michigan gets screwed. Looks about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 28, 2016 Author Share Posted June 28, 2016 That time after the 4th may get pretty hot if the latest models/ensembles are to be believed. Given the timeframe involved there's always potential for backing down but as currently depicted, it could be a fairly impressive blast of heat and falling right in a climo favored time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 Michigan gets screwed. Looks about right. Would be enough to quench the drought a little, and hell there's a couple shots a severe so no reason to complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 GFS in fantasy range looks crazy hot for the lower 48, especially for the plains and southern Arizona and California, actually seen some more 120 degree readings at hour 284. Also can see some upper 90s nudging into the sub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 Would be enough to quench the drought a little, and hell there's a couple shots a severe so no reason to complain.Need a lot more than an inch and a half of rain over a two week period in mid summer to help the dryness for more than a day or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 That time after the 4th may get pretty hot if the latest models/ensembles are to be believed. Given the timeframe involved there's always potential for backing down but as currently depicted, it could be a fairly impressive blast of heat and falling right in a climo favored time. Euro has mid 80s for most of the subforum which is a step up from last night. Of course it has this by the end of the run: Ride the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 For what it's worth, the GFS predicts 111 in Kansas on July 8 (00z July 9), but this type of heat is nowhere near Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 For what it's worth, the GFS predicts 111 in Kansas on July 8 (00z July 9), but this type of heat is nowhere near Chicago. That is because the GFS falsely keeps trying to force a trough in the east, it is going to be wrong. The pattern the Euro is showing matches the El Nino to La Nina summers where the ridge eventually slides east before setting up shop mid to late July in the east. This is an easy forecast and the best model is showing this to happen, GFS will be like its usual 4th place self and catch up over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 Euro has mid 80s for most of the subforum which is a step up from last night. Of course it has this by the end of the run: Ride the Euro. Wow, that's very 2012 looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 It makes sense too as there is a trough in the west that causes a Sonoran heat release that pushed warmth into the plains and eventually the lakes, it is also very unstable at this time too. If the westerlies were to dip into the region we'd be looking at a pretty impressive severe weather signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 It makes sense too as there is a trough in the west that causes a Sonoran heat release that pushed warmth into the plains and eventually the lakes, it is also very unstable at this time too. If the westerlies were to dip into the region we'd be looking at a pretty impressive severe weather signal. I guess we should enjoy this stretch of cool weather while it lasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted June 29, 2016 Share Posted June 29, 2016 Euro has mid 80s for most of the subforum which is a step up from last night. Of course it has this by the end of the run: Ride the Euro. Pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 29, 2016 Share Posted June 29, 2016 Pass. I hope it happens just for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted June 29, 2016 Share Posted June 29, 2016 I hope it happens just for you. So many recreational activities await me, like, bowling, watching movies and not going outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 29, 2016 Share Posted June 29, 2016 So many recreational activities await me, like, bowling, watching movies and not going outside. Go to a beach, go fishing, take your kids to a waterpark? Hot weather doesn't = turn into a hermit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 29, 2016 Author Share Posted June 29, 2016 I hope it happens just for you. If you guys are still dry by then, needless to say the heat potential would be maximized provided there's plenty of sun. Still a lot of time for things to get tempered, but that is not some absurdly unprecedented heat on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 29, 2016 Share Posted June 29, 2016 If you guys are still dry by then, needless to say the heat potential would be maximized provided there's plenty of sun. Still a lot of time for things to get tempered, but that is not some absurdly unprecedented heat on that run. We will be dry still, I see no appreciable rain coming. The thing is by this point in the run the dew points have climbed back to near 70, which isn't too surprising considering it is around 100 by that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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