July pattern discussion

[Typhoon Tip]

Here comes the three day summer

Doo-be-doo-be-dews

By the 17th it'll be back to COC weather and goose pimples at the poolside

 

It's been summer ... I realize you're being tongue in cheek but most climo sites around are actually at or modestly above normal from June 1 through today.  If it has to be 90+ to be a summer than that observer is living in the wrong part of the country. 

 

We'll see if this year typifies my own "summer" experiences; usually there are about three periods of heat (notwithstanding the extent) that occurs inside about a three to four week span, serving as the 'temperature apex' of summer.

 

Not every year of course...  there are resounding exception, both hotter and colder in anomalies.. but 'normally' for me we get threats and frets for heat Mays into Junes, then it blazes for a stint either once in July and twice in August (or vice versa) then the proverbial seasonal back breaks and heat limps along as geriatric warmth ... while early rust and tired greens sweeps over foliage in late Aug/Sept.   Hopefully, we elixir boredom with a hurricane threat or two there on... alas, our once in 20 or 30 year average says the chances for that are remote - but ... that's another form of entitlement that's undeserved.

 

*******************************

 

As far as heat next week, I have my doubts we verify a heat wave.  I am noticing a subtle trend emerging in the operational runs ... one that mimics the tendencies of the summer thus far, and that is to gradually flatten original ridge signals of the extended.  They come into the middle range with 'dents' and longevity reductions ...seemingly like model generated noise/errors, only ...it has been verifying that way.  I keep waiting for one of these to burgeon back at 72 hours, to something more akin to the original glory back when it was day-8, but it never does.   10 days ago, this weekend was supposed to be an inferno - not just because it was la-la range either, but for the 10th time since April 15 the models we're bringing the good... But, here we are with a flat ridge smashed down on the Del Marva, and enough erosion and 'garbage' perturbations running along in the flow to generate back doors and who-knows-what excuse not to be hot.  In fact, we have 576 to 582 dm heights in the area, with a stationary front actually S of us - a combination of observations not usually found!  

 

This summer's been like that ... an exercise in least excuse imaginable not to expand the thickness' fully inside the height allowance ...just pick a reason.  

 

Anyway, this isn't a clean ridge signal... That trough in the Lakes is now bullied along enough to induce cyclonic curvature in the flow ... when that happens, yeah - it may be hot in that circulation/vestigial warm sector, but... cyclonic curvature means setting up for reasons (yet again...) not to be hot.  

 

Not in the traditional sense that is... We could end up in cT murk type heat, where it's 89/75, which would be brutal nonetheless.  

 

But who knows... maybe at last this trough will prove to be bullcrap and the ridge will be less impeded.

[Ginx snewx]

It's been summer ... I realize you're being tongue in cheek but most climo sites around are actually at or modestly above normal from June 1 through today. If it has to be 90+ to be a summer than that observer is living in the wrong part of the country.

We'll see if this year typifies my own "summer" experiences; usually there are about three periods of heat (notwithstanding the extent) that occurs inside about a three to four week span, serving as the 'temperature apex' of summer.

Not every year of course... there are resounding exception, both hotter and colder in anomalies.. but 'normally' for me we get threats and frets for heat Mays into Junes, then it blazes for a stint either once in July and twice in August (or vice versa) then the proverbial seasonal back breaks and heat limps along as geriatric warmth ... while early rust and tired greens sweeps over foliage in late Aug/Sept. Hopefully, we elixir boredom with a hurricane threat or two there on... alas, our once in 20 or 30 year average says the chances for that are remote - but ... that's another form of entitlement that's undeserved.

*******************************

As far as heat next week, I have my doubts we verify a heat wave. I am noticing a subtle trend emerging in the operational runs ... one that mimics the tendencies of the summer thus far, and that is to gradually flatten original ridge signals of the extended. They come into the middle range with 'dents' and longevity reductions ...seemingly like model generated noise/errors, only ...it has been verifying that way. I keep waiting for one of these to burgeon back at 72 hours, to something more akin to the original glory back when it was day-8, but it never does. 10 days ago, this weekend was supposed to be an inferno - not just because it was la-la range either, but for the 10th time since April 15 the models we're bringing the good... But, here we are with a flat ridge smashed down on the Del Marva, and enough erosion and 'garbage' perturbations running along in the flow to generate back doors and who-knows-what excuse not to be hot. In fact, we have 576 to 582 dm heights in the area, with a stationary front actually S of us - a combination of observations not usually found!

This summer's been like that ... an exercise in least excuse imaginable not to expand the thickness' fully inside the height allowance ...just pick a reason.

Anyway, this isn't a clean ridge signal... That trough in the Lakes is now bullied along enough to induce cyclonic curvature in the flow ... when that happens, yeah - it may be hot in that circulation/vestigial warm sector, but... cyclonic curvature means setting up for reasons (yet again...) not to be hot.

Not in the traditional sense that is... We could end up in cT murk type heat, where it's 89/75, which would be brutal nonetheless.

But who knows... maybe at last this trough will prove to be bullcrap and the ridge will be less impeded.

his point being it's all about the dews

[Typhoon Tip]

This has turned out to be one of the more pernicious weekend ruining BD events in recent memory... It could not be any better an example of how the physical circumstance of our proximity to topographic features/geography and cold ocean ... team up with a high pressure's exit fart, purely for the purpose of funking up New England and the upper MA - 

 

gorgeous!

[Damage In Tolland]

Epic Euro run for the long duration heat mongers

[CoastalWx]

Epic Euro run for the long duration heat mongers

It was much cooler than 12z.

[HoarfrostHubb]

BOX has backed off a heat wave IMBY. Warm but meh

[CoastalWx]

It's going to be hot though. That's a warm stretch regardless into the weekend.

[Damage In Tolland]

That's a 5 day siege of 90+ with 3 days of high dews. Then ridge rebuilds again days 9-10. The COC k is dangling limply

[CoastalWx]

That's a 5 day siege of 90+ with 3 days of high dews. Then ridge rebuilds again days 9-10. The COC k is dangling limply

 

Definitely flacid. Like a dead gypsy moth on Ginxy's hemlock.  

[HoarfrostHubb]

It's going to be hot though. That's a warm stretch regardless into the weekend.

Upper 80s here. True heat will hit a lot of folks but breaking 90 has been tough here lately

[HoarfrostHubb]

That's a 5 day siege of 90+ with 3 days of high dews. Then ridge rebuilds again days 9-10. The COC k is dangling limply

How many days does ORH hit 90

I'm guessing maybe 1

[CoastalWx]

Upper 80s here. True heat will hit a lot of folks but breaking 90 has been tough here lately

 

Always tougher at 1K. Looks like typical 88-94 or so in many areas.  Maybe 1 day where we have more mid 90s?  Climo time to have this, so nothing extraordinary there. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Yup. I think this is the climo peak week. Need more warmth

[Damage In Tolland]

How many days does ORH hit 90

I'm guessing maybe 1

Just remember an 88 at ORH and Hunchtown is 94-95 in lower elevations. It's relative.

[powderfreak]

Just remember an 88 at ORH and Hunchtown is 94-95 in lower elevations. It's relative.

lol thanks for the reminder on those steep lapse rates.

[Damage In Tolland]

lol thanks for the reminder on those steep lapse rates.

I think some people think if it's not hitting 90+ in their BY that it's not hot. An 88 here or ORh is hot

[Michael05192016]

Sun angle starting to go down the toilet soon. We need one of the heat ridges to work out soon. Don't look but some of the long range like the CFS is showing big troughing and chilly trends for August. Summer heat may be over for New England pretty soon, and for good this year. Don't look to August for redemption. Don't be surprised if August and September are cooler than many are expecting.

[Damage In Tolland]

Sun angle starting to go down the toilet soon. We need one of the heat ridges to work out soon. Don't look but some of the long range like the CFS is showing big troughing and chilly trends for August. Summer heat may be over for New England pretty soon, and for good this year. Don't look to August for redemption. Don't be surprised if August and September are cooler than many are expecting.

I'll be more surprised if they haven't banned you by then

[lakeeffectkid383]

I'll be more surprised if they haven't banned you by then

[Typhoon Tip]

I'd say chances for verifying a heat wave increased a small percentage .. but we're not in slam dunk range yet.  

 

Wed-Thur appear to be willing contributors, but Fri is being bratty and doesn't want to play with quite as much enthusiasm.  

 

Not the best model for modeling any circumstance ... but the GGEM, which also agrees with a reasonably better D-5 scoring Euro, have frontalysis inching into the longitudes of New England heading into Friday.  Though the 'hot column' will still be in place, it 'might' be heavily tainted by convective debris and/or eager-beaver early day TCU.   That does impose some challenges to the idea of that day being unimpeded heat ... to put it 'mildly'.

 

'Course, ..yes yes, we are talking D5.5 when peering off a starting time of 00z Sunday, but ...doing one's best to remove the perceived impossible, should leave the plausible - I see a front limping in with adulterated skies as just such a remaining plausibility, when considering that 1, umitigated heat in New England is a bit of an oxymoron, and 2 troughs denting in and negating the ridge at our latitude has been a repeating summer affair; not sure I see why that can't take place again as we close out the business week..  

 

The other aspect... nicking 90 because machine-based output tends to mute the top end of temperature rises by a degree or two as a standard failure in the summer.  Friday could do that, definitely ... there's one's heat wave.  

 

Bottom line, at this point I'm above 75% for 90+ on Wed and Thu, and about 50% on Fri. 

 

In the extended, I'm toying with the idea of a historic heat dome setting up in the MV/ High Plains to western OV and adjacent TV regions.  Could be the sort that misses us, a.k.a. 1995 and 2012, due to perennial base-line +PNAP instructing enough NW mid-level static flow to 'shunt' it S of us... Relax!  You hate summer - we get it.  You'll opine and spin out posts in an attempt to garner consternation to share in the same boat of your hot-weather loathing...  But, that base-line condition is your savior... Instead of hell-on-Earth.. you just get clipped for a day, maybe two, with an MCS?   ...  

 

Or not and it's all encompassing and you're a hater...  But, what I'm focusing on is that fact that the GFS pumps out 6 (that's 6!) discerned far eastern, tropical Pacific cyclones in just these next two weeks.  Looks like the Euro is does perhaps 4?   ...still an anomalously aggressive number of them... All that latent heat flux should, in theory, promote a geopotential height response immediately down stream (synoptic scales) ... which, given success, the areal expanse of that is open to morphology and influences by the larger hemispheric circulation medium.  It goes like: if the NAO is positive and the PNAP wants to be negative, said ridge will envelope regions farther E to include much of the East Coaset (yes, and here...)... If these teleconnectors off-set the other direction, the corrections would point to ridge/domes restricted farther west. and these eastern regions would be spared facing the reality that it's not winter (haha).  

 

Seriously though, ..it's a bit experimental thinking process, but I could easy bite into the notion of a large continental ridge event taking place secondarily off of that unusually high TC frequency in the far east Pacific.  In some respect, the operational Global runs may already be keying in on that as unilaterally they all have a massive 594+ DM ridge circumvallate ballooning through the Nation's midriff latitudes in their extended range visions.  time will tell.. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

I think some people think if it's not hitting 90+ in their BY that it's not hot. An 88 here or ORh is hot

This summer was advertised as being a hot one by many. So far it has really been meh. Right around average And yes I understand the 30 year thing

I would imagine zero heat records being set this upcoming week at the climo sites. I guess that would be asking a bit much during the climo peak but at least it would be something

[Typhoon Tip]

well ... luckily for anyone who promoted a hot summer back in the spring, 'this summer' is only half over in another 5 days from now, which... coincidentally, is progged pretty unanimously to be nearing extreme heat.  

 

"weather" that does is as much a horrible pun as it is fitting to point at hand; if it were to be multiples of that sort of pattern expression --> verification going down the rest of the way, (normal + above normal) = hot ... or at least a fair nod in that favor.  

 

no trophies yet - 

[Typhoon Tip]

wow - I didn't notice that panache on the D10 Euro ...  

 

case in point, I guess - get ready if that sets up... ORD heat mongers going giggedy!

[Isotherm]

Not sure about other summer forecasts, but my expectation was for Jul 15-Aug 31 to be much warmer than Jun 1-Jul 15 relative to normal. Thought June would be near/slightly above normal followed by a hot Jul-Aug couplet. 

 

Going forward, it looks like a fairly widespread/nationwide heat pattern w/ the core of the extreme temperatures centered in the Plains -- which is right where the analogs had for the summer -- with occasional extensions into the Northeast. 90F should be seen with increasing frequency for most areas. I've been conflicted about what to do with July vs. August; some of the models suggest we center the mid level ridge further northeast for Aug, and thus it is the hotter of the two months relative to normal. Based upon pattern progression and overall global indicators, I would probably lean that way right now (Aug being hotter than Jul in the Northeast relative to normal).

[moneypitmike]

Upper 80s here. True heat will hit a lot of folks but breaking 90 has been tough here lately

 

Box calling for mid-80's on Wed/Thursday here.  Ugh.  The low 80's on Friday will be manageable though.

 

I'll be more surprised if they haven't banned you by then

 

LOL

[Isotherm]

How many days does ORH hit 90

I'm guessing maybe 1

 

 

ORH averages only 3 90F days per the numbers I see, vs. Boston's 12. 

[powderfreak]

I think some people think if it's not hitting 90+ in their BY that it's not hot. An 88 here or ORh is hot

Who cares if someone thinks it's hot or not? It's subjective anyway.

[Typhoon Tip]

ORH averages only 3 90F days per the numbers I see, vs. Boston's 12. 

 

they'll been to 89 twice so far...  so they're not doing too bad all things considered.  

 

1,000 feet.. .that's about 970 mb (actually prolly closer to 1,000) level as the SIGMA.  That's probably about right when locating that coordinate along the adiabat, when starting from about 17 or 18C at 850 mb.  We used to use the blank skew -T to estimate sfc temperatures from 850 mb, with the 'index finger' rule to tack on 2 to 3 C for the 2-meter from 1,000.  That seems to work > 90% of the time.

 

Euro and the less reliable GGEM are at 20 or slightly above Wed and Thu afternoons, so it'll be an interesting challenge for that location heading through mid week.

[Typhoon Tip]

Who cares if someone thinks it's hot or not? It's subjective anyway.

 

i don't want to speak for Kevin ...but think what he's responding to is a kind of pettiness that goes on around here to 'discredit' heat -

 

that's palpable - sorry it just is.  

 

but that's fine with me.  there are no real rules in using this 'public' shared social media - haha.

 

most of the time that is....  

 

for him though? being the singular most lauded cheerleader of heat known to the modern era of inteconnectivity that he is ... i've noticed that it sets him off real easy when someone's contribution smacks/airs on the side of less.  which, is frankly just as bad the other way.

[ORH_wxman]

i don't want to speak for Kevin ...but think what he's responding to is a kind of pettiness that goes on around here to 'discredit' heat -

that's palpable - sorry it just is.

but that's fine with me. there are no real rules in using this 'public' shared social media - haha.

most of the time that is....

for him though? being the singular most lauded cheerleader of heat known to the modern era of inteconnectivity that he is ... i've noticed that it sets him off real easy when someone's contribution smacks/airs on the side of less. which, is frankly just as bad the other way.

Well there's probably a reason he took a vacation from the board as soon as the hyped June heat (by him of course) turned out to be a bust.

Now that we are finally getting into a pattern that can produce heat he's back and he's back big!!!