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July pattern discussion


Typhoon Tip

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As soon as I post it winds go 150 and temp drops from 90 to 86. We'll see if they can fight it off this afternoon.

 

it's a flip-flopper afternoon there probably. 

 

places along the immediate shore communities off the LI sound and of course the Cape are probably safe, but Logan could go back and forth.  Maybe even one of those 7 pm highs?

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Just saw the euro has 2m upper 90s from MHT-ASH-FIT tomorrow...850s are 20-22C. Wicked scorchah.

 

Did you notice the 12z GFS  ...wow.    Historic ridge heights - make a bet, that model will fumble around with engineering principles until it finds a way to keep temps in the upper 70s while that's happening, too  ...  :axe:

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ORH may have trouble hitting 90 today...it's marginal when the 850s are +17 to +18...but I'd rather see +19 or higher ..also the wind direction is W to WSW, not the best for torching ORH airport. I like to see a northerly component.

 

 

True, could see a lot of quick rises to like 86-87F and then just hangs upper 80s later this afternoon. I like MPV up here at 1,200ft will avoid 90F.

 

 

 

AWT...87 at 3pm at ORH...high of the day so far. Kind of classic with this wind direction and +17 to +18 850s. I really want to see +20 at 850 for ORH 90F days...though if you have a +19 or so and WNW/NW wind, then it's doable.

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may be kind of backing into the same idea but i've always used the 6 degree rule for places like FIT/BED/LWM/NWD and ORH.  always seems to work out that way - or close...that whatever ORH is in heating potential, those sites are about 6 F warmer for their highs. 

 

seems to be working out present hour - 94 FIT and 88 ORH 

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it's hot - suck it up ... and, your original post was odd relative to that fact.

It was not a big torch here. Fact

My initial post (poorly worded perhaps) was more meant about the upcoming cool down. I would love a nice stretch of 90+ IMBY which seems difficult to come by. I had that one day in late May where I hit 91 and I think one other date of 90 a couple of weeks ago

Hoping to do a bit better tomorrow ORH only hit 87 as well and these ain't the mountains.

Send me a 95 degree Sonoran heat day or three

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It was not a big torch here. Fact

My initial post (poorly worded perhaps) was more meant about the upcoming cool down. I would love a nice stretch of 90+ IMBY which seems difficult to come by. I had that one day in late May where I hit 91 and I think one other date of 90 a couple of weeks ago

Hoping to do a bit better tomorrow ORH only hit 87 as well and these ain't the mountains.

Send me a 95 degree Sonoran heat day or three

 

 

no one ever said it was - relax :) 

 

Last weekend was nice pool weather every day, wasn't it?   

 

the 18z NAM slams the warm door shut on eastern mass starting tonight... 

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Backdoor front pretty clearly crept into NE zones...  63 in BVY after a high in the 90s!  Brrr...  

 

This one is interesting... if you look at all surface obs over Nova Scotia to eastern Maine, they're uniform and in the low to mid 50s with ENE wind. 

 

Contrasting, prior to this boundary cutting into NE zones and (probably) saving those from another day running toward 90 there's primarily light and variable wind.  There's virtually no resistance here so static stability forcing took carte blanche. 

 

As the sun climbs and the heating of the day gets more discerned ...one of two things should happen.  Either the boundary will dissolve/retreat as mixing kicks in and a bit more off shore component in the interior gather's some muster;  or, the instability farther inland and conservation of mass will kick in and the flow behind the boundary intensifies as it is draw even farther inland.  I've seen both these results when dealing with shallow invasion - and it is shallow,..  I drove down the length of 190 which lines the eastern ORH hills and went from slate gray at 65 to partial sun at 75 mid way.  It's the lowest 1,000 foot of atmosphere.  

 

Tracking the the third potential for heat wave later on next week ... though, there have been several this season that marked that sort of time lead ... only proven phantom ridging.  In the meantime, with these boundaries now setting up in the area it would be nice if we could get some thunder outta the next few days. 

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Backdoor front pretty clearly crept into NE zones...  63 in BVY after a high in the 90s!  Brrr...  

 

This one is interesting... if you look at all surface obs over Nova Scotia to eastern Maine, they're uniform and in the low to mid 50s with ENE wind. 

 

Contrasting, prior to this boundary cutting into NE zones and (probably) saving those from another day running toward 90 there's primarily light and variable wind.  There's virtually no resistance here so static stability forcing took carte blanche. 

 

As the sun climbs and the heating of the day gets more discerned ...one of two things should happen.  Either the boundary will dissolve/retreat as mixing kicks in and a bit more off shore component in the interior gather's some muster;  or, the instability farther inland and conservation of mass will kick in and the flow behind the boundary intensifies as it is draw even farther inland.  I've seen both these results when dealing with shallow invasion - and it is shallow,..  I drove down the length of 190 which lines the eastern ORH hills and went from slate gray at 65 to partial sun at 75 mid way.  It's the lowest 1,000 foot of atmosphere.  

 

Tracking the the third potential for heat wave later on next week ... though, there have been several this season that marked that sort of time lead ... only proven phantom ridging.  In the meantime, with these boundaries now setting up in the area it would be nice if we could get some thunder outta the next few days. 

 

Models don't seem enthusiastic about bringing it too far north today.

 

I could see it sneaking back up the Hudson, then pinching off into parts of southern NH, but the real boundary stays pinned across N central MA.

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Backdoor front pretty clearly crept into NE zones...  63 in BVY after a high in the 90s!  Brrr...  

 

This one is interesting... if you look at all surface obs over Nova Scotia to eastern Maine, they're uniform and in the low to mid 50s with ENE wind. 

 

Contrasting, prior to this boundary cutting into NE zones and (probably) saving those from another day running toward 90 there's primarily light and variable wind.  There's virtually no resistance here so static stability forcing took carte blanche. 

 

As the sun climbs and the heating of the day gets more discerned ...one of two things should happen.  Either the boundary will dissolve/retreat as mixing kicks in and a bit more off shore component in the interior gather's some muster;  or, the instability farther inland and conservation of mass will kick in and the flow behind the boundary intensifies as it is draw even farther inland.  I've seen both these results when dealing with shallow invasion - and it is shallow,..  I drove down the length of 190 which lines the eastern ORH hills and went from slate gray at 65 to partial sun at 75 mid way.  It's the lowest 1,000 foot of atmosphere.  

 

Tracking the the third potential for heat wave later on next week ... though, there have been several this season that marked that sort of time lead ... only proven phantom ridging.  In the meantime, with these boundaries now setting up in the area it would be nice if we could get some thunder outta the next few days. 

Made it thru south of Boston as well.  Dropped from 72 at 5 AM to 63 at 6 AM; breezy with a bit of fog as well.

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