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July pattern discussion


Typhoon Tip

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lol.wut, talking about July weather in July doesn't belong in the July weather thread, lol. Good one Tippy

 

no dude - you're making a subjective opinion about the weather you like for this weekend, IN the pattern discussion.

 

that's not meteorology -that's trolling, and doing so just because you don't like the apparent discourse and as it pertains to weather you happen to hate. 

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no dude - you're making a subjective opinion about the weather you like for this weekend, IN the pattern discussion.

 

that's not meteorology -that's trolling, and doing so just because you don't like the apparent discourse and as it pertains to weather you happen to hate. 

No dude I made a meterological point of saying what a beautiful weekend for the 4th. What the heck are you spouting off about now/ I have no idea exactly what you say half the time during your war and peace novels but this takes the cake. It is going to be a sunny warm beautiful weekend, who hates that? The pattern looks great the next 5 days for excellent sunny warm July weather.

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yup ... sure did. D5 is +14C at 850 to kick it off...

looking at the other parameters, should be a partly to mostly sunny day, low to moderate DPs and temp running into the 87 range in maxing...

then D6 is +17 or +18C with off shore flow and probably higher DPs yet...that's a 93er there... then of course, D7 is a 21C flame thrower on a west wind... ooph.

Yeah that was hot run 120+ hours out. Interesting flip flopping.

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No dude I made a meterological point of saying what a beautiful weekend for the 4th. What the heck are you spouting off about now/ I have no idea exactly what you say half the time during your war and peace novels but this takes the cake. It is going to be a sunny warm beautiful weekend, who hates that? The pattern looks great the next 5 days for excellent sunny warm July weather.

 

You are not even making any logical sense with this, Steve.   Just stop - 

 

you do this seriptitious troll act all the time, and then someone busts you for it and you try to eel your way out of it...  

 

let it go and talk about the PATTERN.  

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Yeah that was hot run 120+ hours out. Interesting flip flopping.

 

well...  yes and no.  

 

yes in the sense that it was a cooler previous run... 

 

no in the sense that it ran some 3 or 4 consecutive cycles prior to that, of heat doming - we were pretty much making fun of it as a 'fantasy heat dome'.  

 

i didn't disagree - i even mentioned, it goes against the tenor of the summer.  i even coined this as the year of the phantom ridge back in late May as it's been a plaguing things to have it topple coming into shorter ranges ..etc etc.  

 

however, i also have been pointing out that that as of late the tele's are edging on the warm side in that time frame, so seeing the operationals leaning may even be expected here.   hell, you and i had this conversation a month ago that the signals et al may want to push things back toward the 4th - not sure if you recall that.   next week certainly qualifies and may in fact be 'right on time' for the balancing of hidden trends with runs and so forth.  

 

all that and climo and analogs post Ninos are supposed to be dogged in July and August... 

 

heh, we'll see if this one has legs...  could be a heat wave.  we only need 90.  we don't have to confuse that with 'big heat' either. 

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Normal is +.1 to +.3 F in a pre-GW holocaust.

Completely OT: ...You know... humanity is a tragic comedy ... I only hope that interloping super -advanced interstellar species can one day happen by our human-defunct corpse of a world in so many hundred years, and see and make understanding of our plight, just for the shear hilarity of it all... Human kind is currently standing on the proverbial train tracks with an errant ecological/climate freight train barreling at them, and they are busily arguing over the "paramount" issue of Wall Street regulations and the price of oil.

nice -

pattern only please
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You are not even making any logical sense with this, Steve. Just stop -

you do this seriptitious troll act all the time, and then someone busts you for it and you try to eel your way out of it...

let it go and talk about the PATTERN.

Weekend looks perfect, warm days,cool nights, low dews. Yankee Doodle Dewless. EPS looks awesome all the way as far as the weenie can see.Sonayora Sanoroa
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If the pattern over the next 5-7 days holds true and if there is not a lot of rain today we could see a serious summer time brush fire threat. The last time we had a serious threat this time of year was late 90's, I believe the Douglas MA state Forest had a 600 acre fire. I know there was a 10+ acre fire near Steve on the RI border 2 weeks ago and another 10 acre fire in Holland Ma this past weekend. Gypsy Moth, dry weather, and bottle rockets are never a good combo!

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Lol...what's a doddle....

It's July and some heat is coming-shocking.

 

Certainly doens't look over-bearing, no - 

 

but that was never the point; nor did anyone over sell it - certainly not I.  

 

i mean ... you can't even mention even 90 F (forget "big heat") in a PATTERN thread, backed by sound meteorological reasoning or not, without winningly insightful plebeian honks dropping by to perp their drive-by shooting posts ... deliberately to fly in the face of it?  like why...seriously, what's purpose of that.  is it so folks will believe them, and then together they can believe there are no warm signal in play??!!

 

this really is bastion of unstable intellects to me and that fact shines brilliant during the time of year when the cold/snow obsession is most challenged. 

 

Sorry, it just is... I have deleted reams of PMs from non-devoted users that no longer hobby involvement (that I can tell) that have asked me what/why the deal is with that post complexion for a reason ... 

 

i've given the cool side of the discussion ample time and respect in my objectivity in my own contribution - seems there are those that can't be as fair.  oh well... it's the public - 

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If the pattern over the next 5-7 days holds true and if there is not a lot of rain today we could see a serious summer time brush fire threat. The last time we had a serious threat this time of year was late 90's, I believe the Douglas MA state Forest had a 600 acre fire. I know there was a 10+ acre fire near Steve on the RI border 2 weeks ago and another 10 acre fire in Holland Ma this past weekend. Gypsy Moth, dry weather, and bottle rockets are never a good combo!

Lots of dry litter everywhere but also the underbrush is green. Where was the 10 acre fire? First I heard of it. Hopefully the showers are heavy today. Humidity will increase some too next week before the next front blows through. Pattern is not stagnant with quick moving air masses. Looks like some heat for a couple of days after the 4th before the next cooler shot comes in.

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Lots of dry litter everywhere but also the underbrush is green. Where was the 10 acre fire? First I heard of it. Hopefully the showers are heavy today. Humidity will increase some too next week before the next front blows through. Pattern is not stagnant with quick moving air masses. Looks like some heat for a couple of days after the 4th before the next cooler shot comes in.

I think West Coventry or Exeter, heard Sterling and Oneco Sat Eve coming out of the woods and regrouping on Sun. Very difficult to locate, a couple miles in

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Monday looks meh

Hopefully by the end of the week

Meh? Wut? it looks sweet

Sunny, with a high near 84. West wind 6 to 8 mph.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 61.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 85.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 62.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 87.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 64.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 87.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67.
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i almost wondering if this hot period the operational models have been teasing the upper OV into NE regions with, might just at last break hot and come in more demonstratively when the depictions are more like D2 to 5 ...

 

2-meter Euro has 100 F for KFIT Thursday afternoon, book ended by a couple of days in the low to mid 90s.  Dew points are savvy too, so it wouldn't be that dry stuff we had over Memorial Day weekend - should that transpire...  Interesting because it is not even the hottest looking run of those I've seen over the past 3 days of monitoring this "warm week" thing.

 

The GFS has been suspicious all along.. it's quite literally taking and inventing small perterbuations in the flow (...almost like MCS debris vorticy vestiges?) over the upper MW... and then these features team up and induct new S/Ws that I suspect aren't real. Trouble is, there are likely to be those trolley car complexes along the interface between the subtropical ridging and Canada.  MCS can modulate regions as their processed/rain cooled air masses swath out to the right of their paths... They can also have a residence in the grids due to processing the geopotential depth in their convective engines... so, some of that is probably real.  But it just seems that it goes over board... One run, it used an MCS to crinkle the flow just a little over eastern Ontario, and then used that as physical means to construct sfc +PP and a raging BD that bullies in under 590 heights... hmm, hey GFS, at some point.. you got to factor in planetary/synoptic process, too.

 

The ridge is flat as the PNAP temporarly goes through this particular rendition of -PNAP configuration; it's probably all typical modeling uncertainties where the ridge kisses the westerlies.  However, as Isotherm' and others have noted, the heights depressing through the Pac NW teleconnects to eastern heights rising; combining that aspect with the statically neutral-positive NAO domain, that all points the "correction vector" (if you will...) toward higher heights.  so we'll see... but I woulnd't be surprised if it comes down to flipping a bit then all at once in nearer terms a more solid performing above normal span/heat wave, and synoptic signature, rolls through. 

 

Kind of tough to part company with weather like yesterday and today - but it is interesting Meteorology in my mind.  

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