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July pattern discussion

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Michael05192016

Michael05192016

Posted
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00Z Euro - finally collapsed the phantom heat ridge for New England. Tip, don't fall for this Euro nonsense, the heat ridge is NOT coming this summer. The GEFs is backpedaling too. Time to wait for August and early September for the worst heat of the summer, which might be extraordinary up to NYC. I think NYC may have a week or two of near 600 500 MB heights the last 2 weeks of August. Just a feeling I got.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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00Z Euro - finally collapsed the phantom heat ridge for New England. Tip, don't fall for this Euro nonsense, the heat ridge is NOT coming this summer. The GEFs is backpedaling too. Time to wait for August and early September for the worst heat of the summer, which might be extraordinary up to NYC. I think NYC may have a week or two of near 600 500 MB heights the last 2 weeks of August. Just a feeling I got.

 

i wasn't aware i ever did -

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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eps support? no

 

yeah i don't get to see the eps.   

 

i was basing that off the gefs, which still as of yesterday actually indicated more heat/ridging back east could take place. 

 

whether that does or not, again, like i said ... "goes against the tenor of the summer" 

 

now, one may choose to ignore the gefs products for whatever reason ... but, they are just as valid as prognostic tool as anything else. i'm not prepared to ignore the teleconnectors that are derived from the gefs entirely.  

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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yeah i don't get to see the eps.

i was basing that off the gefs, which still as of yesterday actually indicated more heat/ridging back east could take place.

whether that does or not, again, like i said ... "goes against the tenor of the summer"

now, one may choose to ignore the gefs products for whatever reason ... but, they are just as valid as prognostic tool as anything else. i'm not prepared to ignore the teleconnectors that are derived from the gefs entirely.

helping a brother out

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016062900&fh=12&xpos=0&ypos=0

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Nice!   have to book mark that - 

 

i just have a snooty pissed-off attitude about the ECMWF corp... they use our data, from our grids, in part for their model suite(s) initialization(s) ... Data that our collective taxes at least in part afford, then turn around have a high-hooty opinion of their product like it's some untouchable rock star and make us pay to see it?   

 

go f ur selves - Frankly, don't need anything i don't see for free from them. 

 

buuut, maybe that's all different now.  

 

that all said, heh, by D8.5 that midriff ridge is quite domineering looking and not too far away that we can really be secure in thinking it can't roll some big heat in here.  interesting... in fact, may even be a prelude to that happening either outright or corrected toward, shortly thereafter.  that depiction is "playing with fire" - ha

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Michael05192016

Michael05192016

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Any big heat will be postponed to late August or early September at this point. The ECMWF is locking in a vortex from hell in SE Canada now. The GEFS are also driving a trough into SE Canada in the 10-15 day range. Major heat is not gonna happen north of NYC. Book it folks!!!!! Better luck next year. DC will roast next month.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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I see where this is going. Everyone is dismissing it. I am sure the Euro Ops is completely out to lunch.

 

Any big heat will be postponed to late August or early September at this point. The ECMWF is locking in a vortex from hell in SE Canada now. The GEFS are also driving a trough into SE Canada in the 10-15 day range. Major heat is not gonna happen north of NYC. Book it folks!!!!! Better luck next year. DC will roast next month.

 

Yesterday you tossed the Day 8-10 Euro as far as you could throw and today its "locked in".  Just a little friendly advice would be not to speak in such absolutes all the time.  It still could flop back warm/hot at 00z tonight. 

 

Ride the ensembles anyway at that lead time.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Man the roosters will be crowing this weeknd, perfect. HHH just doesn't want to stick around at all next week either

 

The Ensembles look a bit warmer, though still nothing exceptional by any means.

 

But big difference there in the OP vs. EPS with the trough in the Pac NW and long wave ridge axis more towards the Great Lakes than Rockies region.  You can see how that look could turn warmer or at least a piece of the heat breaks off and heads our way depending on the strength of that NW trough and if it kicks the whole pattern eastward a bit.

 

As modeled that's pretty normal summer temps I would imagine, and normal is hot enough in July, lol.

 

post-352-0-74061800-1467245034_thumb.png

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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The Ensembles look a bit warmer, though still nothing exceptional by any means.

But big difference there in the OP vs. EPS with the trough in the Pac NW and long wave ridge axis more towards the Great Lakes than Rockies region. You can see how that look could turn warmer or at least a piece of the heat breaks off and heads our way depending on the strength of that NW trough and if it kicks the whole pattern eastward a bit.

As modeled that's pretty normal summer temps I would imagine, and normal is hot enough in July, lol.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_10.png

meh its all about the dews
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SJonesWX

SJonesWX

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Any big heat will be postponed to late August or early September at this point. The ECMWF is locking in a vortex from hell in SE Canada now. The GEFS are also driving a trough into SE Canada in the 10-15 day range. Major heat is not gonna happen north of NYC. Book it folks!!!!! Better luck next year. DC will roast next month.

dude you are a broken freakin record.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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The past 2 days were fairly muggy...I had a low of 69F one day. I don't recall the cold weenies seeing that coming.

Cold weenies? Who wants cold? Nobody wants 100/75 so theres that. Yes everyone knew there would be two days prefrontal with muggy weather but we wash rinse repeat

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dendrite

dendrite

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Yeah our dews crept into the lower 60s, and 86/59 followed by 76/58 was pretty muggy by this June's standards.

2 days of mid/upper 60s dews down here. I was not a fan.

 

For some reason the 75-80F dews in APF never bothered me. Maybe it's because there was always a tropical maritime breeze associated with it near the coast. 65-70F+ with dead air sucks.

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

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The past 2 days were fairly muggy...I had a low of 69F one day. I don't recall the cold weenies seeing that coming.

 

On the other hand, I don't recall anyone saying that the past couple of days were going to be crisp and cool either.  It's not like we've had a lot of discussion either way.  It's been a pretty mundane stretch of CoC weather with some warmer periods mixed in.  I'm just glad that I installed for the past couple of days.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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2 days of mid/upper 60s dews down here. I was not a fan.

 

For some reason the 75-80F dews in APF never bothered me. Maybe it's because there was always a tropical maritime breeze associated with it near the coast. 65-70F+ with dead air sucks.

 

it's all about the ventilation, agreed...

 

that Saturday over last Memorial Day weekend, when we soared to 97 F ...of course, 'in between' any of the actual NWS sites. 

 

Actually ... that's not true:  KFIT and ASH ... pretty sure they were puking up sultry body-temperatures that afternoon.

 

Anyway, I was driving up Rt 3 into S NH at some 70 mph with the windows down ...sans A.C. and it was fine.  The car's therm was pegged on 97 the whole way, which matched both NWS and networked numbers.  Soon as I got to my bro-in-laws cook-out and took a seat out on that back deck...woof!   Of course, I don't think the DP was exceptionally high in that heat so perhaps not a fair test for torrid HI's.  

 

I was looking at the 18z GFS yesterday... I didn't take notice of any demonstrative eastern ridging (that I think folks are looking for, and in not seeing ...are validating the petty belief that it's not really summer... ), however, gosh - the surface and 500 mb thickness charts were 568 to 578 dm thickness, with winds tending off-shore the whole way ... D6 to the end of the run. 

 

So then it occurs to me, ...when does it become fair to stop disillusioning one's self into believing it's cooler than it is, and then spinning out these posts in order to recruit people into their bubble-fantasies?   I mean, it doesn't have to be 99/74 for objectivity to think of things as torrid... To each, his own I suppose.  I think 84/70 ... grading on nerves takes a toll if that were to materialize spanning a week like that.  Every time you park the car, run in for this-or-that and come back out, woof.  2nd floor of problem bread-box homes are always needing A.C. because ..duh, heat rises and 84/70 is plenty for a closed container to surplus if the sun is shining... List goes on... what the 18z GFS was selling absolutely was not a win for chilly lenses out there.  

 

Nor is it a win for the "ridgistas" - granted there is nothing heart breakingly hot about 582 laminar heights with occasionally MCS ripping through...  

 

Not suggesting the 18z GFS is ever an oracle by any means, either - ha   But, like you mentioned, the last couple of days it's getting there and I disagree that other's have not mentioned that potential.  I've been hammering that the banal dry pattern was actually the anomaly relative to the tele's - not the other way around.  PNA is supposedly dead at this time of year...still, it's dippin', and the NAO is statically positive - which is not statistically dead at this time of year.   One + the other does not = cold. Yet the pattern, whether the therm houses actually reflect it or not, is finding ways to continue punching NW flow into NE...  

 

It's actually the 3rd summer in a row that's happened... (if including this one, thus far).  Pass through neutral, then Nina, then Nino's... canceled summer for ridgistas...  Ha-ha...  Guess it's no different than winters mysteriously going on extended hiatuses, either. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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the euro flipped back to hot

 

yup ...  sure did.   D5 is +14C at 850 to kick it off...

 

looking at the other parameters, should be a partly to mostly sunny day, low to moderate DPs and temp running into the 87 range in maxing...   

 

then D6 is +17 or +18C with off shore flow and probably higher DPs yet...that's a 93er there... then of course, D7 is a 21C flame thrower on a west wind...  ooph. 

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