Typhoon Tip Posted July 20, 2016 Author Share Posted July 20, 2016 59 minutes ago, dendrite said: I know what you and Will are saying. I guess I just look at those d7-10 record heat/cold progs as pure fantasy. They're fun to look at, but they never make it out of the weenie folder. It's a lot like coastals...get one inside of d4 and it has more legs. heh, certainly a good point about setting expectations wrt to extended versus nearer term model depictions.. sure. agreed there. buuut, i also think there are other aspects to consider. there are some D8's that are more believable than other D8s example, seasonal persistence: this summer, for all intents and purposes ... 0 heat domes affecting us as modeled have had legs ... other than calling a boot-leg 95's hot, that were not really involved/caused by the former. thus, it gets harder to visualize one acquiring those legs. contrasting, in the winter 1995-1996, man ... that winter; you could hold a candlelight vigil on a D9'er coastal storm and said candles burned the whole way! THAT winter, the 'D8's had big muscly pro-wrestler legs'. there's that, plus, the teleconnectors may support, yet the pattern fails ... whole 'nother migraine. it's rarer to see that, but when the ensemble means go big (cold hot whatever) and the operational's nod in favor, THEN, for whatever reason(s) the shorter terms fail everything...that's adding to it. this summer's done that a bit. i propose the wave-length issue/correction as cause ...yet another migraine. in the end, while i agree with you in general that D6-10 are increasingly fantastic from D6 to 10 ... consummately under-performing does have an interesting truth/use to explore to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 The only bad thing with the winter analogy is the fact that when the coldest is centered west of us and we're getting glancing pieces we're often getting a lot of snow so weenies are happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 1 minute ago, weathafella said: The only bad thing with the winter analogy is the fact that when the coldest is centered west of us and we're getting glancing pieces we're often getting a lot of snow so weenies are happy. Unless it's '14-'15 LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Unless it's '14-'15 LOL. The analogy works here lol...coldest H85 air overhead, snows to the east. Haha -20F Arctic sand here while Weymouth is 15F +SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 New GFS is warmer for Fri and cooler for Sun/Mon. Basically follows the gist of what we've had the past week...a few hot (non-record breaking) days and some mild downs mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 27 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The analogy works here lol...coldest H85 air overhead, snows to the east. Haha -20F Arctic sand here while Weymouth is 15F +SN. You hate me. That's ok......the tables will turn and I'll be sipping cosmos in January while you upslope your way to 18" of white gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 20, 2016 Author Share Posted July 20, 2016 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: You hate me. That's ok......the tables will turn and I'll be sipping cosmos in January while you upslope your way to 18" of white gold. not unless the idea of cyclic winter tendencies carry's any merit ... because if so, we're still dead in the middle of bend-over-NNE times until proven otherwise. wah wah waaaah. anyway, not that i'm complainin' it was like ...life giving refresh this morning driving 70mph to the work with the windows half down ...drive wind pushing 71 F past Kevin's napes... i figured he was wicked happy about this morning. if that big heat walls off SW of us ...we may also eventually cash in on a wayward over the top MCS or two.... or not, maybe it will just be banal positive anomalies followed by another broken line of over-warned convection - prolly safer putting one's bucks on that. seems my turbo ridge from hell signaled two weeks ago is panning out ... peering over the watch/warns at nws gov.. that's a pretty big area of radiation sickness out there. you know, looking at the annals going back over a hundred years. we don't get heat waves like that, out there... ours are always either: a ... 92 for 10 days straight as the WAR builds in and east the Pac cooperates; or b ... one super hot day as a piece of satan's turd rips off comes over the top and we cook on a NW wind. i don't think it's ever been above 98 F in eastern Mass for more than a single afternoon - certainly not that often. almost wonder if the limitation ... it's just a planetary wave physical limitation with the rocky mountain torque bulge transmitting a static depression down stream...such that the atmosphere mechanical base-line can't get an IA ridge here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 Days and days and days of 90's Tyler Jankoski @TylerJankoski 4m4 minutes ago The last time this happened? July 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Days and days and days of 90's Tyler Jankoski @TylerJankoski 4m4 minutes ago The last time this happened? July 2013. How many days of 90s have you had? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 Just now, MetHerb said: How many days of 90s have you had? This is the same discussion again..It's very difficult for hill towns to hit 90. If it's 93-96 at BDL..it's 88-92 hills. No matter how you slice it..it's hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: This is the same discussion again..It's very difficult for hill towns to hit 90. If it's 93-96 at BDL..it's 88-92 hills. No matter how you slice it..it's hot wow what an incredible dewless dandy day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 I don't know how else to say it it has not been hot IMBY. We do get hot days most summers. This month my high has been 87 I think. Weak sauce. I know in many other spots 90s have been common and that is hot. I have been under BOXs point and click temps by 4-7 degrees most days. It can't just be elevation I would think since that is factored into those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: wow what an incredible dewless dandy day I' not sure what you're trying to prove by posting this for the 3rd time today. Yes it was a dry day today,. Glad you enjoyed the beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: This is the same discussion again..It's very difficult for hill towns to hit 90. If it's 93-96 at BDL..it's 88-92 hills. No matter how you slice it..it's hot Same discussion? You keep talking about 90° days that WE have had and show forecasts for more weather that WE will not see. Everyone knows the hill towns are cooler...where have you been? You need to qualify statements instead of generalizing. You did it the other day saying that the region had 4"+ of precip the past couple of weeks when it was just you and two other spots a 100 miles away. It's warm/hot mixed in with some cooler weather...summer in New England. Seasons in seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 4 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I don't know how else to say it it has not been hot IMBY. We do get hot days most summers. This month my high has been 87 I think. Weak sauce. I know in many other spots 90s have been common and that is hot. I have been under BOXs point and click temps by 4-7 degrees most days. It can't just be elevation I would think since that is factored into those. As Scott replied to my post earlier...there's been some pretty good downslope dandys for the CP where places like the ORH hills haven't really received the extra boost. This can kind of be a bit of the equivalent of bootleg radiational cooling nights to describe the airmass as frigid. Yeah for some spots it is, but not for everywhere like you get in a strong CAA airmass (ala V-day this year as an extreme example) For heat, it's a little different on the mechanism and the temp difference aren't quite as large, but they are still there. So you get kind of "meh" heat at ORH struggling to 87 and a fairly impressive 94 or 95F at BOS. In our deeper heat domes, ORH will hit 90-92 and BOS 95-98....and you can add 2-3F to each of those in our really intense heat domes like we saw in summer of 2010/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 Thanks Will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael05192016 Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 How many New England crazy weather nuts want a 600 MB 500 ridge, 28 Celsius 850mb and 588 dm 1000-500 MB heights. Too bad that would never happen here in our lifetimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 Interestingly enough, even imby 200 feet asl, it's been cooler vs BOS on non seabreeze days. I think my high has been 92-93. Also cooler vs BOS at night. Was 60 this early morning while walking the dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 We drought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 21, 2016 Author Share Posted July 21, 2016 9 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: As Scott replied to my post earlier...there's been some pretty good downslope dandys for the CP where places like the ORH hills haven't really received the extra boost. This can kind of be a bit of the equivalent of bootleg radiational cooling nights to describe the airmass as frigid. Yeah for some spots it is, but not for everywhere like you get in a strong CAA airmass (ala V-day this year as an extreme example) For heat, it's a little different on the mechanism and the temp difference aren't quite as large, but they are still there. So you get kind of "meh" heat at ORH struggling to 87 and a fairly impressive 94 or 95F at BOS. In our deeper heat domes In our break off, rotted, dying pieces of the midwest heat domes we never truly get other than fleeting breath passing tastes, ORH will hit 90-92 and BOS 95-98....and you can add 2-3F to each of those in our really intense heat domes like we saw in summer of 2010/2011 yeah, agreed - I'll just add that ...figuratively, New England has a kind of jigsaw climatology ...where each piece to the puzzle sometimes dictates the layout more than others. some days you get that Down slope effect you describe... other days we are a marine climate and you can smell the barnacles on the lobster boat, St Marie, clear to Albany. Other times, we get that sarcastic transient heat pulse truncated by an MCS a.k.a. 1995... at others, down right taiga cold with powdered sugar choking wind gust.. Some places in the world get dominated in either or - we really seems to split closer to 14% in each one (or whatever it is...). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 21, 2016 Author Share Posted July 21, 2016 welp, the complete destruction of the 'original' heat appeal for this weekend has ...as predicted, taken place when passing said time range from extended to middle range. it's like a nick in an old vinyl record where every time the the divot completes a revolution the needle pops back to the same starting point ...over and over and over and over again. i have an idea - let's not run any more model runs until...say, October 15, and see if we can be 100% correct in forecasting this will just happen again. ...'course, then we won't know if it actually is happening again if we don't run the models... Heh, all's not lost if your a summer enthusiast ... transient patterns can be something to look forward to ...with 'perhaps' glancing blows of EML and cooked 850s, only to be swept seaward by mysteriously dodgy missed convection chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 Euro is pretty damned hot for Monday getting all of SNE north of 20C at 850, but that's still 4.5 days out. We'll see how much of the heat can sneak in here tomorrow ahead of the shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 21, 2016 Author Share Posted July 21, 2016 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro is pretty damned hot for Monday getting all of SNE north of 20C at 850, but that's still 4.5 days out. We'll see how much of the heat can sneak in here tomorrow ahead of the shortwave. oh that's probably going to verify ... reasonably well.. but, the machine output based off that guidance (most for that matter) 4 days ago had something like 93, 101, 102, 97, 94 for those five days, with lows of 82 in the urban centers. endless playing tape of killing those whopper heat waves. interesting. heh, whatever. other than that temperate (if that's what one seeks) look this summer fails. it's kind of like 2011-2012 winter, only in this regard it's of course the other way. well...maybe 11-12 is too harsh - maybe like last winter. yeah. barring GW finally enveloping our region with an utterly new climate norm in our lifetime, 2011-2012 was so absurdly just wrong ya wonder if it was a 1:1000 year cosmic dildo pump. i realize i'm probably in the minority on this buuuut, for me...the 'boring' ness of summer really is alleviated by episodic record heat and big convection. those are commodities at our particular location, sure ...but some years are better. this one is not only bad, but the models are dinking around with it which makes it rubbing in. ahahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: oh that's probably going to verify ... reasonably well.. but, the machine output based off that guidance (most for that matter) 4 days ago had something like 93, 101, 102, 97, 94 for those five days, with lows of 82 in the urban centers. endless playing tape of killing those whopper heat waves. interesting. heh, whatever. other than that temperate (if that's what one seeks) look this summer fails. it's kind of like 2011-2012 winter, only in this regard it's of course the other way. well...maybe 11-12 is too harsh - maybe like last winter. yeah. barring GW finally enveloping our region with an utterly new climate norm in our lifetime, 2011-2012 was so absurdly just wrong ya wonder if it was a 1:1000 year cosmic dildo pump. i realize i'm probably in the minority on this buuuut, for me...the 'boring' ness of summer really is alleviated by episodic record heat and big convection. those are commodities at our particular location, sure ...but some years are better. this one is not only bad, but the models are dinking around with it which makes it rubbing in. ahahaha No argument there. This summer has been horrifically boring...even against our own low standards for "exciting" New England weather in the summer. You've got this big hemispheric heat signal pointed right at the U.S., and New England is avoiding most of it in very skillful fashion...just getting the dull edges from time to time while they have some more extreme stuff to our west and some of the convection that comes with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 21, 2016 Author Share Posted July 21, 2016 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: No argument there. This summer has been horrifically boring...even against our own low standards for "exciting" New England weather in the summer. You've got this big hemispheric heat signal pointed right at the U.S., and New England is avoiding most of it in very skillful fashion...just getting the dull edges from time to time while they have some more extreme stuff to our west and some of the convection that comes with it. Superbly well put! ...to the point of being comical really - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 15 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: I' not sure what you're trying to prove by posting this for the 3rd time today. Yes it was a dry day today,. Glad you enjoyed the beach I am your little red rooster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 Today is critical. If BOS hits 90 we have a great chance of official 3 day aoa 90. Looks probable tomorrow and Saturday. 87 at 1 PM on a classic DSD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 Well, things were much hotter on this day in 1934 for all you warmistas: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 Euro says 96-100 Sat in DSD locales and has ORH over 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Euro says 96-100 Sat in DSD locales and has ORH over 90 Saturday doesn't look warm enough at 850 for 90 at ORH...I think Monday's our best shot for that. Unless the Saturday gradient shifts back north again another 50-100 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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