Damage In Tolland Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: You know it does say right on that graphic what it takes into account? It's longterm wetness/dryness relating to runoff, recharge, percolation, and evapotranspiration. I didn't take that to mean that's all it encompasses no. Otherwise I wouldn't have asked. So that's saying we are on par severity wise with California? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I didn't take that to mean that's all it encompasses no. Otherwise I wouldn't have asked. So that's saying we are on par severity wise with California? Yes and no. Yes, soil moisture-wise we're in a similar class to CA. The difference is the Palmer isn't great with short term recharges (i.e. thunderstorms) and most places in CA average like a half to a third of our annual precipitation. So we're in a much better place to quickly recharge and erase our current index. As an example, both we and CA need about 6-9" in our worst off places to return the Palmer Index to near normal. That could be a good month around here, but close to a year's total in CA. So you can see how a couple failed months out there just compounds the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 19, 2016 Author Share Posted July 19, 2016 2 hours ago, dendrite said: Eh...that 12z GFS run is damn hot. 20-21C 850s Sun/Mon afternoon with SW flow. not happenin' not sure if the strict empirical/mathematical reason is because Kevin wants it, or, ...because this summer is metaphysically driven to destroy heat signals in medium ranges .. but come hell or high water - this is destined to go down as the hottest phantom heat summer in history, the chapters of which are written by him... yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: not happenin' not sure if the strict empirical/mathematical reason is because Kevin wants it, or, ...because this summer is metaphysically driven to destroy heat signals in medium ranges .. but come hell or high water - this is destined to go down as the hottest phantom heat summer in history, the chapters of which are written by him... yup I thought that was last year or the year before...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 Well we just had a 4 day heat wave and Ryan has 90-97 Thursday right thru next Tuesday. So 10 out of 12 days over 90 is pretty awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 18z GFS is a scorcher Sun and Mon. Damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 100!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 Tips past the tipping point. It's been rather hot John. Eg:. Bos has had 2 days over the past week aoa 95 with 2-4 more on tap over the next 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 Eg:. Past 7 days at BOS:. 92/87/94/96/79/95/84. Next 7 should be same or hotter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 11 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Well we just had a 4 day heat wave and Ryan has 90-97 Thursday right thru next Tuesday. So 10 out of 12 days over 90 is pretty awesome You hit 90° four days in a row? That's impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 18 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: This doesn't appear to me to be a 40's type airmass. I could see you getting down to 54 while I stay at 63 or something I haven't checked the "official" min yet but the digital thermometer has 49°...what did you get down to? The 1000' station here in town has 56° and you're usually warmer than that...did you stay in the 60s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 7 minutes ago, MetHerb said: I haven't checked the "official" min yet but the digital thermometer has 49°...what did you get down to? The 1000' station here in town has 56° and you're usually warmer than that...did you stay in the 60s? 58.6..Cooler airmass than I thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 I only managed to get to 54* here. Not bad, but hardly earth-shattering. But after the stretch of heat over the past several days (highs of 80-84 before yesterdays midnight high of 72), it's a nice shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 46.7F here for the low it has not been hot here. Not even close. Zero 90 degree days this month. One in June and one in May which was pretty hot. Just to the east it has been pretty hot (Fitchburg for example) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 No dews till Friday afternoon, hot sticky weekend, dews go away Tuesday thru mid week. Wash, rinse, repeat. Tick... Tick.. Bring on the likely warm, low dew extended fall that will make most physically and financially happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 59.7 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 I think Sun/Mon verify hot to some extent. We should get a plume of those torchy midlevel temps ahead of that s/w cutting across the US/Can border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 This pattern reminds me of those progged cold patterns in winter where a huge chunk of the northern and central tier are freezing and the models keep bringing in huge -20 to -22C cold shots only to verify 4-5C warmer and more transient. Meanwhile 3 weeks later you look at the monthly anomalies and it's like -6 over a big portion west of us while we only verified -1.7 or something...still cold overall but well under the medium range guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 20, 2016 Author Share Posted July 20, 2016 48 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This pattern reminds me of those progged cold patterns in winter where a huge chunk of the northern and central tier are freezing and the models keep bringing in huge -20 to -22C cold shots only to verify 4-5C warmer and more transient. Meanwhile 3 weeks later you look at the monthly anomalies and it's like -6 over a big portion west of us while we only verified -1.7 or something...still cold overall but well under the medium range guidance. solid seasonal-relative analogy here - and agreed... i'm sure those that are sick of me are aware, i've been hammering this summers triumph at mediocrity for over a month now. seems we've been dealt a large number of late middle and extended range episodic heat, but all that has verified is the same old banal soap-opera of least excuse imaginable to verify less than said late middle and extended ranges. still, let us be fair; the last 10 days have had more above 90 then below at typical climate resulters - but that goes along with your homage. it is as though we boot-leg into the above normal party without ever being truly in it! it's probably nothing unusual. similar to winter ... we see these big cold plumes and/or coastal bomb on D8, 9 or 10's ...and even in the best of times (teleconnector support) that's just an awful long duration time span to expect all forces that influence the weather to remain static and unchanged, such that x-y-z modeled idea pans out. someone with a tedious Asperger's bent should pour over data of modeled versus verified big testicle phantoms ..and see if a 'pattern' emerges (pun most certainly intended); i think there would be. my hunch is, the big huge events (with the possible exception of 1993 March ..which was some kind of freak 1::1000 deal) actually are more like "hinted" and toyed with in the model runs prior to native short terms (talking about D6-10 performance, specifically). get inside that range and different analogies and metaphors apply - heh. but, big event hints and frets and starts then the short terms all bite in across the pantheon of guidance. the flip side of that hunch is that big, ...even if 'unanimously' agreed upon, features in that D6-10 range don't pan out as frequently as the hinted versions do. my theory on why the heat keeps failing like that has to do with wave-length spacing, and the fact that the ridge in the Nation's midriff lat/lons is anchored so mightily in that position. the balanced geostrophic gradient overall isn't offering any impetus to reposition that ridge, and then enters the error in the models to keep progressing it to the mid Atlantic. but what happens instead? the original big height ridge once at D6-ish does not re-position, ..it stays put, and that leaves a more numerical weakness available to the NE and SE Canada, and the models naturally use any vestige or shrapnel of pva dynamics rippling N of the Lakes as an excuse to start eroding in... then, said time range is D4 and not only did the ridge fail to reposition and stay more statically aligned, it actually does the opposite and retrogrades to the Rockies/High Plains, at which point we here in the NE are pretty much left with the back door to Canada wide-open. that or some perversion of that correction scheme is canceling Kevin's imagination (ha). but i'm sure he'll claim victory with 91/67 versions of the big heat we're never seemingly going to get Aug. 20 is the first day of autumn in my mind... that's when the verrrry first tired maples tinge and the climate really starts to reverse slope more sensibly... it just happens to be a tediously long ride at first. clock is ticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 I'm not sure what most people are expecting. The last week has been pretty hot at many sites. Those numbers Jerry posted for BOS aren't exactly "meh". There's 3 days of 94+ in there. Even if this weekend verifies cooler than currently progged it still looks well into the 90s at the torch spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 16 minutes ago, dendrite said: I'm not sure what most people are expecting. The last week has been pretty hot at many sites. Those numbers Jerry posted for BOS aren't exactly "meh". There's 3 days of 94+ in there. Even if this weekend verifies cooler than currently progged it still looks well into the 90s at the torch spots. Agree it's been a hot run. Love the breaks in HHH makes it tolerable. Today is a defined Chamber of Commerce day. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 20, 2016 Author Share Posted July 20, 2016 14 minutes ago, dendrite said: I'm not sure what most people are expecting. The last week has been pretty hot at many sites. Those numbers Jerry posted for BOS aren't exactly "meh". There's 3 days of 94+ in there. Even if this weekend verifies cooler than currently progged it still looks well into the 90s at the torch spots. you're right - they are not 'meh' - not reasonably... but they are also not 100 to 105, three days of hell that we've seen probably 7 (or however many times, but a few) times on an extended range ... nor the 'structure' of the circulation medium that would go along with... they've been failing to hold into shorter terms. i don't think anyone with menial awareness would "expect" that anyway - it's climatologically too challenged. they shouldn't away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 23 minutes ago, dendrite said: I'm not sure what most people are expecting. The last week has been pretty hot at many sites. Those numbers Jerry posted for BOS aren't exactly "meh". There's 3 days of 94+ in there. Even if this weekend verifies cooler than currently progged it still looks well into the 90s at the torch spots. Don't get it. Does it now have to be 100+ to be hot? We are looking at 2 days this weekend of 96-100 heat. If it hits 99, will that not be hot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Don't get it. Does it now have to be 100+ to be hot? We are looking at 2 days this weekend of 96-100 heat. If it hits 99, will that not be hot? 100 is the new 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 20, 2016 Author Share Posted July 20, 2016 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Don't get it. Does it now have to be 100+ to be hot? We are looking at 2 days this weekend of 96-100 heat. If it hits 99, will that not be hot? straw-man argument - or, you're not following. either way, could care less what the sensible impact is; what Will and I were just discussing is a failure to hold a particular aspect of modeled patterns from longer to shorter time ranges. nothing else. personally? i don't have any qualms about calling 90 hot. hell, i'd concede at 84 most sunny days. i'm pretty sure most folks think about this the same way. we're not talking about the sensible impact; just the model performance. but for the record, it could certainly have been 100+ on a couple few occasions if one of these pattern were to hold - that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 37 minutes ago, dendrite said: I'm not sure what most people are expecting. The last week has been pretty hot at many sites. Those numbers Jerry posted for BOS aren't exactly "meh". There's 3 days of 94+ in there. Even if this weekend verifies cooler than currently progged it still looks well into the 90s at the torch spots. I like to see ORH break 90 at least once to be somewhat impressed with a heat dome. It's def been hot, but like my winter analogy above, it has underperformed relative to model guidance and the core to the west of us...we are getting pieces riding in. It reminds me of a cold shot in the winter where it underperformed but some of the rad sites did pretty well. BOS and some of the CP will do fairly well in that robust WSW flow that keeps any seabreeze offshore and suppresses some of the clouds. But this is subjective anyway in what impresses us. There's no arguing that it has been warmer than normal and even a couple of pretty legit hot days in there. But I'd like to at least see ORH get 90 to impress me. That should happen a few times per summer. I'm not even asking for 92 or 93. Maybe we'll get it this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: straw-man argument - or, you're not following. either way, could care less what the sensible impact is; what Will and I were just discussing is a failure to hold a particular aspect of modeled patterns from longer to shorter time ranges. nothing else. personally? i don't have any qualms about calling 90 hot. hell, i'd concede at 84 most sunny days. i'm pretty sure most folks think about this the same way. we're not talking about the sensible impact; just the model performance. but for the record, it could certainly have been 100+ on a couple few occasions if one of these pattern were to hold - that's all. I know what you and Will are saying. I guess I just look at those d7-10 record heat/cold progs as pure fantasy. They're fun to look at, but they never make it out of the weenie folder. It's a lot like coastals...get one inside of d4 and it has more legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 Some of those hot days we had were well mixed downslope dandy days. The kind where 16C 850s get you mid 90s in the city/coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Some of those hot days we had were well mixed downslope dandy days. The kind where 16C 850s get you mid 90s in the city/coastal plain. That's why I was saying can a brother get a 90 at ORH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That's why I was saying can a brother get a 90 at ORH? Yeah I know what you mean. I'm certainly not poo-pooing 95...but we haven't had one of those torrid 850mb 20C+ plumes yet that usually signify big heat for the higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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