Brian5671 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 6z NAM even worse. Looks like another win for the RGEM which had the southern solution early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 22, 2016 Author Share Posted June 22, 2016 6z NAM even worse. Looks like another win for the RGEM which had the southern solution early That's interesting considering that the 4k NAM simulated radar doesn't look that dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 22, 2016 Author Share Posted June 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Wow it looks like another failed severe event here. Can't get lucky here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Wow it looks like another failed severe event here. Can't get lucky here. I'm going to OC NJ Saturday for a week, maybe I'll see a storm there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 22, 2016 Author Share Posted June 22, 2016 LMFAO, the 09z SREF mean is way North. Expect the 12z NAM to come North now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 This reminds me of a winter threat. Starts out good, keeps trending north/south/east/west, and every once in awhile a model shows a nice solution that we want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 22, 2016 Author Share Posted June 22, 2016 The 12z NAM is already a good 50-75 miles further Northeast over Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Radar and water vapor loop seem to show the cell on a southeast trajectory. The confluence to the north seems to be pressing down with vigor. I don't see how this turns in time to hit North Jersey, but we shall see. I for one, am praying for rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 22, 2016 Author Share Posted June 22, 2016 The NAM is way North. Heavy rain makes it up to about Rt 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 22, 2016 Author Share Posted June 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Much better. Let's hope the RGEM follows suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Remember the nam was too far north with yesterdays non event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 22, 2016 Author Share Posted June 22, 2016 The RGEM is way North. Not enough but a big big jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Congrats Torngat Mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Sooooo close lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 22, 2016 Author Share Posted June 22, 2016 No reason to think this is the final outcome given that things have begun shifting back and we still have about 24 hours to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 12z RGEM-need some more north movement otherwise it's another SNJ event - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 22, 2016 Author Share Posted June 22, 2016 12z RGEM-need some more north movement otherwise it's another SNJ event - It shifted Northeast about 75 miles from the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 22, 2016 Author Share Posted June 22, 2016 12z GFS is way North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Remember the nam was too far north with yesterdays non event That's a good point, and I've noticed that the NAM has been too far north with a couple other events recently as well. But at least the 12z RGEM made a decent bump north. Not quite enough, but it's close. If the 18z RGEM makes even a slight bump north, we would at least be in the rain. I'm keeping my fingers crossed, because boy do we need the rain and it'll be awhile before the next threat if this one doesn't work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 22, 2016 Author Share Posted June 22, 2016 GFS jackpots the area between Trenton and Morristown. 06z jackpotted DC metro lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 GFS jackpots the area between Trenton and Morristown. 06z jackpotted DC metro lol Christ. This might be a now cast situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 22, 2016 Author Share Posted June 22, 2016 Christ. This might be a now cast situation. Watching the HRRR closely. It's out of range this far East but I'm looking for trends in Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Forky may be right after all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 what did Forkey say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 22, 2016 Author Share Posted June 22, 2016 Interesting, the 15z Experimental HRRR has the morning MCS missing well South with a secondary complex developing during the afternoon and coming through here after 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Interesting, the 15z Experimental HRRR has the morning MCS missing well South with a secondary complex developing during the afternoon and coming through here after 00z.stupid question what time is 00 Z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 stupid question what time is 00 Z? 8pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 what did Forkey say STORM CANCEL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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