NJwx85 Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 For several days the models have been forecasting a large scale MCS system to form over the lakes region on Wednesday, crossing upstate NY and PA overnight, eventually reaching the coast on Thursday. Although their are timing and evolution differences, the general synopsis has not changed for several days. The latest 12z NAM is the most severe for the NYC metro so far with 2500-3000 J/KG of SBCAPE making it roughly 50 miles north of NYC. In addition to the MCS, discrete convection will be possible, especially just out ahead of the main event. 12z NAM is indicating 0-3km Helicity values exceeding 640 and moderately strong 0-3km EHI maximized over NNJ, NYC and the Western 2/3rds of LI indicating a localized enhanced supercell/tornado threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 I hope it works out because we really need the rain (the grass is turning brown already), but it concerns me that the RGEM has it missing us to the south. Would not be shocking if we get nothing again. I trust RGEM over NAM any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Looks south of NYC for severe with just a rain shield with embedded thunder for the area. Southern NJ looks prime like today, last week, and the week before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 I hope it works out because we really need the rain (the grass is turning brown already), but it concerns me that the RGEM has it missing us to the south. Would not be shocking if we get nothing again. I trust RGEM over NAM any day. rgem is still out of its useful range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 21, 2016 Author Share Posted June 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Two potential problems I have with this threat: [1] Timing [2] Track of the sfc cyclone With respect to [1], MCS generation will likely occur Wednesday late aft./evening in the lower Mid-west with propagation eastward during the overnight hours. However, typically, the 12z-18z period tends to feature MCS decay. Again, we're dealing with timing that is not ideal convection wise, in terms of the diurnal cycle. Further, if the sfc low tracks near/along NYC's latitude, the best severe threat will be DCA-PHL. Given the projected geopotential height evolution, I'm still skeptical of severe north of approximately Trenton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 21, 2016 Author Share Posted June 21, 2016 The UKMET ticked South. Maybe I jinxed it with this thread lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 21, 2016 Author Share Posted June 21, 2016 The Euro is South. Looks like we lose again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 The UKMET ticked South. Maybe I jinxed it with this thread lolAs is tradition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 rgem is still out of its useful range I've found the RGEM to be pretty good even at 48 hours. Not its best range obviously, but still a lot better than the NAM at 48 hours. When I saw the RGEM showing it missing us to the south, I figured the NAM was out to lunch yet again. Now some other models are following the RGEM. I bet we get nothing Thursday with the rain missing us well to the south. Very frustrating because it's so dry out there. The ground is parched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Not to nitpick, but Thursday is June 23rd not the 22nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Rgem is well south as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 21, 2016 Author Share Posted June 21, 2016 Rgem is well south as well. If the NAM goes south this run I think we'll know. The new SREF ticked South some but not dramatically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Plenty of cape in our area. Don't give up on this one yet. Look at the east end of LI this morning with legit severe and prolific lighting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 21, 2016 Author Share Posted June 21, 2016 Plenty of cape in our area. Don't give up on this one yet. Look at the east end of LI this morning with legit severe and prolific lighting Bro this thread is for the Thursday event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Going with seasonal trend this year I will say the bulk of Thursday's MCS goes just to our south, but that doesn't mean we wont see at least some thunderstorm activity. Locally, it seems that south jersey is a thunderstorm magnet this year but then again they usually are. Still time to see how things set up for Thursday and we probably wont have a better idea until tomorrow night or Thursday morning IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 21, 2016 Author Share Posted June 21, 2016 The 18z NAM is still a tremendous hit, however the northern edge has been shaved well South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 21, 2016 Author Share Posted June 21, 2016 2-3"+ on the 18z NAM. It's actually wetter than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 21, 2016 Author Share Posted June 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 21, 2016 Author Share Posted June 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 18z RGEM is way south. The NAM will likely keep adjusting south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 21, 2016 Author Share Posted June 21, 2016 18z RGEM is way south. The NAM will likely keep adjusting south. The 18z RGEM hasn't run yet Chief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 18z RGEM is way south. The NAM will likely keep adjusting south. Time to lock this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 The 18z RGEM hasn't run yet Chief Of course it had run at the time I made the post. I had just looked at the color loop. The 18z run updates between 4:30 and 5pm on the PCPN Type Loop page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 21, 2016 Author Share Posted June 21, 2016 Time to lock this thread.Still another few runs for things to rebound north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 The NAM continues to correct south to the RGEM solution and has another PHL and south event at 0z. Just can't buy rain these days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Philly south has been the norm the past few winters, but now summer too? Sheesh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 If the 06z NAM is correct you can pretty much kiss this threat goodbye for tomorrow and keeps with the seasonal trend so far this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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