NYC/PHL December 24-27 Potential - Part 2

[Voyager]

it already did, im out to hr 21, but i get it a little faster than most people

Can't you get it any faster? I have to get up at 4:30 tomorrow morning.

[eduggs]

That confluence gets really far south into the Mid-Atlantic and really surpresses the H5 flow. Does anybody have a height comparison over the East coast between the ECM and NAM? I'd pull it up myself but I'm on a phone.

There are regions of confluent height lines all over the charts. I always interpret this to mean NW flow and low heights on the backside of a deep low. And yes, it has been getting slightly worse with successive model runs It's kind of sickening actually. You can't ask for too much more with the western ridge and approaching s/w.

[tombo82685]

through hr 36, gfs is a little slower, h5 low is closed off still, s/w stronger

[earthlight]

There are regions of confluent height lines all over the charts. I always interpret this to mean NW flow and low heights on the backside of a deep low. And yes, it has been getting slightly worse with successive model runs It's kind of sickening actually. You can't ask for too much more with the western ridge and approaching s/w.

Well the confluent flow and energy is going to phase into the trough--that's not what totally concerns me. What's more concerning is how this phase seems to be occurring further east than it was over the past few days. That gives us less wiggle room.

[SteveB]

GFS is slower than the NAM with the southern energy thru 36

[SteveB]

0Z GFS is clearly a diff beast thru 42 than the 12Z.Inching toward the slower solutions. Big signal imho.

[Jefflaw77]

0Z GFS is clearly a diff beast thru 42 than the 12Z.

in a good way?

[Sn0waddict]

in a good way?

Yes

[tombo82685]

through hr 45, a little slower, stronger s/w, frontside ridge stornger, backside ridge bout the same

[Analog96]

in a good way?

Slow=good.

[Radders]

At 42, the 0Z GFS is looking very similar in placement of the southern stream shortwave vort to the 12Z Euro.. So far, so good.

[eduggs]

Wes never mentioned any comparison to the Euro, when you compare it, it looks exactly the same.

Surprisingly nice overlay match on the plymouth site at NAM hr 60. Only noticeable differences are slightly lower heights on Euro over the Dakotas and Minn. Can't see hr 72 but it looks pretty close. Nerve racking to wait for rapid height rise and pinwheeling of 700mb at last minute.

[tombo82685]

through hr 51, a good bit slower now still stronger s/w

[earthlight]

Surprisingly nice overlay match on the plymouth site at NAM hr 60. Only noticeable differences are slightly lower heights on Euro over the Dakotas and Minn. Can't see hr 72 but it looks pretty close. Nerve racking to wait for rapid height rise and pinwheeling of 700mb at last minute.

Those are very important in getting the phase up to happen quickly enough to tug this up the coast.

[tombo82685]

really slowing down at hr 54, front side ridge stronger

[LVblizzard]

DT said on the radio show that he's issuing a Condition Charlie tomorrow!

[earthlight]

Confluence is stronger. The northern stream heights are phasing in much slower as well. The shortwave may be trending slower, but the general upper air trends over the past day or so are extremely concerning to me.

[Isotherm]

really slowing down at hr 54, front side ridge stronger

Yeah definitely quite a bit slower, agreed.

[Jefflaw77]

DT said on the radio show that he's issuing a Condition Charlie tomorrow!

why wouldn't he wait on this, until the entire GFS comes out. Also, wait for the Euro and then if things come in as we all hope, then if i were him i'd jump on it..

[Analog96]

Confluence is stronger. The northern stream heights are phasing in much slower as well. The shortwave may be trending slower, but the general upper air trends over the past day or so are extremely concerning to me.

I don't think the amount of confluence matters way back on hr 54. That's why we want this thing to be slower anyway, so it has a chance to break down the confluence.

[tombo82685]

through hr 66 slower, stronger s/w hvy precip over tx and ok...lgt precip from iowa to ok

[earthlight]

Yeah definitely quite a bit slower, agreed.

Are you concerned as well? Over the past day or so we have seen some very significant changes specifically with the northern stream. The lower heights and shortwave over the Northern Plains that are coming into the trough are taking much longer to do so on every run the past day or so. Take the GFS for example. Last nights 00z run had the low heights already into the northern plains with the shortwave well west of the MS. The Euro pulls it off..but it's upper air pattern is close to letting the storm escape if the northern stream doesn't fly south into the trough. The slower northern stream is causing the slower amplification of the trough and capture of the surface low..and that has me concerned because it significantly narrows the window of opportunity for a major coastal storm.

[tombo82685]

wow the diff at h5 from 18z gfs to 0z gfs is pretty remarkable, how much slower it is...also the 0z gfs is trying to close off the h5 at hr 72

[Collegestudent11]

At hour 66 it does look like the low is moving away from the area.

[tcutter]

wow the diff at h5 from 18z gfs to 0z gfs is pretty remarkable, how much slower it is...also the 0z gfs is trying to close off the h5 at hr 72

HM just said "huge leap" towards euro

[NJHurricane]

I don't think the amount of confluence matters way back on hr 54. That's why we want this thing to be slower anyway, so it has a chance to break down the confluence.

Also think that because that was our concern with a couple of the big ones last season and we saw the confluence break down in time to allow the turn up towards N Mid Atlantic a lot of people are assuming it will be the same this time...and until modeled differently across the entire suite of a given run I guess that is not an unreasonable assumption...I share earthlight's concern though

[eduggs]

Are you concerned as well? Over the past day or so we have seen some very significant changes specifically with the northern stream. The lower heights and shortwave over the Northern Plains that are coming into the trough are taking much longer to do so on every run the past day or so. Take the GFS for example. Last nights 00z run had the low heights already into the northern plains with the shortwave well west of the MS. The Euro pulls it off..but it's upper air pattern is close to letting the storm escape if the northern stream doesn't fly south into the trough. The slower northern stream is causing the slower amplification of the trough and capture of the surface low..and that has me concerned because it significantly narrows the window of opportunity for a major coastal storm.

I'm concerned too. Too another look at the 72-84 850mb charts on the NAM and there is no southerly component to the flow in the SE. Regardless of any similarities to the Euro, I don't see how that extrapolated comes up the coast. Obviously curious to see how the rest of the suite plays out, but def not feeling confident.

[tombo82685]

hr 93 has a sub 1012 in the northern gulf of mexico...northern stream diving in

[chubbs]

Big changes in GFS by 78. Lets see where it goes.

[tombo82685]

hr 99 has a sub 1012 low over jacksonville...lgt precip up to southern va