Snow_Miser Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I've been out with a first guess since Sunday Like I said, I don't think you'd be very surprised if you saw my map. Can I guess? Does it have accumulating snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Can I guess? Seriously, take a look at your map. It's not a whole lot different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Seriously, take a look at your map. It's not a whole lot different. Awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 If you were joking, it went over my head with the next response: It was one of the first baroclinic models run by ncep in the 1970s and 1980s. Its output ended at 48 hours. i honestly never even heard of that model. Tony' i think honestly after your golf score is spilled the models will form a consensus They are really stalling, waiting for your score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GEFS is also OTS but it's west of the Operational GFS... interesting... they have been east all of this time... http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemblep12120.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Ok - Mets here is a question - If you had to choose three models today to make a forecast which ones would they be in sequence from 1 to 3. No forecast needed. Just curious which models you would pick. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 i honestly never even heard of that model. Tony' i think honestly after your golf score is spilled the models will form a consensus They are really stalling waiting for your score. http://amsglossary.allenpress.com/glossary/search?id=limited-fine-mesh-model1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 http://amsglossary.a...ine-mesh-model1 lol, how did it do back then? I imagine there couldn't of been to much competition in 1968 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 lol, how did it do back then? I imagine there couldn't of been to much competition in 1968 Honestly no clue haha, I just knew it was old as heck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Well, definitley not encouraging to see the gfs, gfs ensembles, ukmet, ggem ensembles, kma, jma, etc show an out to sea scenario. it seems to me the euro is once again way overdone (like it was for that fluke run with the last storm) and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see the euro go towards the other models tonight. I'm shocked to hear this is your take.is pessimistic. regardless of whether the storm happens or now, this is not similar to the euro having one fluke run last week. what abot the ggem? the ukmet? the nam extrapolated? i guess those don't count. of course OTS is still on the table, but cmon with the KMA etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I'm shocked to hear this is your take. regardless of whether the storm happens or now, this is not similar to the euro having one fluke run last week. what abot the ggem? the ukmet? the nam extrapolated? i guess those don't count. of course OTS is still on the table, but cmon with the KMA etc. KMA and JMA are pretty bad with storms. JMA predicted 2 feet of snow for Central PA for Thanksgiving 2009. And the area saw nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 lol, how did it do back then? I imagine there couldn't of been to much competition in 1968 that's all there was in the 70's and 80's..I think the old NGM was also a big model of the time..the Euro started in the late 80's along with the MRF which went out to 7 days..AVN..now GFS even up until the late 90's had 2 runs a day..I think is was 120 hours ..the ETA also started in the early 90's..I think it went out to 48hrs ..twice a day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 KMA and JMA are pretty bad with storms. JMA predicted 2 feet of snow for Central PA for Thanksgiving 2009. And the area saw nothing. That's a 7 day chart! The Euro, GFS, and GGEM make the sort of error routinely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 That's a 7 day chart! The Euro, GFS, and GGEM make the sort of error routinely. We're roughly in the same timeframe right now with this storm. (4-7 day Medium Range). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 We're roughly in the same timeframe right now with this storm. (4-7 day Medium Range). we are a good 48 hours closer to the event give or take than a one week map like the one you posted. 48 hours is an eternity in the weather modeling world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Rossi, I would rank 1. GEM 2. UKM 3. ECM More later. Need to pay attention to fiancée for a little bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 we are a good 48 hours closer to the event give or take than a one week map like the one you posted. 48 hours is an eternity in the weather modeling world. The GFS Euro and all of the other models can have as much of an error at 5 days out. Once the s/w gets onto the Pacific Coast in T=48h, then I do believe that this is when the models form a consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Rossi, I would rank 1. GEM 2. UKM 3. ECM More later. Need to pay attention to fiancée for a little bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Rossi, I would rank 1. GEM 2. UKM 3. ECM More later. Need to pay attention to fiancée for a little bit Interesting... all three of those show a bomb on the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The GFS Euro and all of the other models can have as much of an error at 5 days out. Once the s/w gets onto the Pacific Coast in T=48h, then I do believe that this is when the models form a consensus. im not disagreeing with what you're saying, but the map you used to "prove" that the JMA sucks is absurd. The JMA does suck, but i wouldn't use a 168 hour prog to illustrate it. I could dig up some downright embarassing 168 hour GFS progs too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/graphics/acz5.gif ECM is actually on top as far as verification rates at this time frame.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 im not disagreeing with what you're saying, but the map you used to "prove" that the JMA sucks is absurd. The JMA does suck, but i wouldn't use a 168 hour prog to illustrate it. I could dig up some downright embarassing 168 hour GFS progs too. Fair enough. Here is a nice image that I saved of the JMA at 120 h out. Shows a massive EC storm. This actually turned out to be a GLC on the 9th of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Fair enough. Here is a nice image that I saved of the JMA at 120 h out. Shows a massive EC storm. This actually turned out to be a GLC on the 9th of December. Yea, that is a better example. I wonder if the JMA has any more success with local forecasting for Japan? To me, a computer model with finite algorithms would perform the same no matter where on the map you're located, but I just can't imagine that a technological powerhouse like Japan could rely on such a weak model. Anyone know the answer to this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Fair enough. Here is a nice image that I saved of the JMA at 120 h out. Shows a massive EC storm. This actually turned out to be a GLC on the 9th of December. that might not of been an east coast snowstorm.... those maps are 24 hr accum precip. At the end of the 24 hr precip period it then shows where the frz line is. So what seems like all that precip fell while it was below freezing it really and most likely didnt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 http://www.emc.ncep....aphics/acz5.gif ECM is actually on top as far as verification rates at this time frame.... Yeah but it also shows that differences between the model scores are almost negligible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 that's all there was in the 70's and 80's..I think the old NGM was also a big model of the time..the Euro started in the late 80's along with the MRF which went out to 7 days..AVN..now GFS even up until the late 90's had 2 runs a day..I think is was 120 hours ..the ETA also started in the early 90's..I think it went out to 48hrs ..twice a day In the early 60s as a youngster I don't remember a single forecast.. If it clouded up, you checked the thermometer, <32 game on, and we had several good ones then. . As for present. Still too soon to tell. Lots of promise but there are plenty of examples of what can go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Yea, that is a better example. I wonder if the JMA has any more success with local forecasting for Japan? To me, a computer model with finite algorithms would perform the same no matter where on the map you're located, but I just can't imagine that a technological powerhouse like Japan could rely on such a weak model. Anyone know the answer to this? I'm not sure to the exact answer to the question. While I know that the JMA is horrible in the United States, I really don't know how it does in Japan. Ask a local met on this forum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Fair enough. Here is a nice image that I saved of the JMA at 120 h out. Shows a massive EC storm. This actually turned out to be a GLC on the 9th of December. It's hard to tell from a static surface map what path a storm system has taken. And secondly, you cannot prove or disprove the viability of a model from a single chart. But the idea that the JMA is considered by experts to be somewhat less reliable than the standard bearing models is true. But just how much less reliable is unclear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 that might not of been an east coast snowstorm.... those maps are 24 hr accum precip. At the end of the 24 hr precip period it then shows where the frz line is. So what seems like all that precip fell while it was below freezing it really and most likely didnt The exact low placement is most signficiant in this example. It was 1000 miles off. -Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 It's hard to tell from a static surface map what path a storm system has taken. And secondly, you cannot prove or disprove the viability of a model from a single chart. But the idea that the JMA is considered by experts to be somewhat less reliable than the standard bearing models is true. But just how much less reliable is unclear. Those are only a few model maps. I don't want to overrun the forum with a ton of JMA images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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