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NYC/PHL December 24-27 Potential - Part 2


forkyfork

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  On 12/21/2010 at 11:09 PM, eduggs said:

The chance of the Euro showing a less favorable solution at 0z has to be > 90%. And the chance of it "blinking" and really changing for the worse might be at or greater than 50%. Blizzard model runs at Day 5 are so tenuous. I won't be alarmed unless all guidance moves in the wrong direction for successive runs.

Do i expect the Euro to show the mega bomb from this pm, No. What i meant is if it takes a low OTS like the GFS is doing. That would be a blink.

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  On 12/21/2010 at 11:09 PM, Absolute Humidity said:

Not entirly sure that 966 bomb is gonna exit stage right and cut ENE. If anything, it may head slightly W of due north and give many coastal areas a SECS. Wouldn't call it OTS.

Flow at h5 doesn't look to support a coastal snowstorm on the UK, despite the deep offshore gale center.

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`

  On 12/21/2010 at 11:08 PM, Feb said:

Could the mods please split off a seperate thread for discussing the 84 hour 18z Nam, Nogaps, JMA ,KMA, Hungarian, Brazilian, DGEX, Peruvian, Italian, Indian, Australian, Chinese, Mongolian, Haitian, Nicaraguan, and Iraq models please. Thanks.:axe:

The Iraqi? I heard it has a well-known hot and dry bias....it will predict high 95 with 1% RH on 12/26. :lol:

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  On 12/21/2010 at 11:10 PM, baroclinic_instability said:

"In fairness to you the 12Z GME weather model from the German Weather Service also shows a coastal hugger at hour 132."

I could be wrong, but the GME has one of the lowest verification scores of all global models.

I was just doing that as a point of reference, not that I actually follow the model.

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  On 12/21/2010 at 11:14 PM, daxx said:

This was a good thread, what the hell happened? :arrowhead:

18z GFS..ah what are ya gonna do..if it's a miss it's a miss..you can control it..sometimes I feel I would do better taking a break from the boards...go back to the 60's and not know what's coming..I've tried it before..it lasted two weeks..i'm addicited!!

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  On 12/21/2010 at 11:20 PM, Rtd208 said:

This tread is turning into a train wreck, everyone just needs to slow down and take a deep breath, we are still roughly 4-4.5 days away from the start of this potential event, IMO the models are still going to need another 24-36hrs until they start coming in with a consensus regardless of what they are showing now.

+1

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  On 12/21/2010 at 11:13 PM, tmagan said:

I was just doing that as a point of reference, not that I actually follow the model.

Yeah I know, I found the reference funny.laugh.gif

I definitely think a few folks may be picking at straws with some of the guidance being brought up.

I say we just dust off the LFM.

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  On 12/21/2010 at 10:39 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

The UKMET has been so bad on the last two storms I haven't even looked at one run of it, the GEM ensemble mean is the one thing I don't like right now, as well as the 18Z NAM at 500mb looking a bit more like the 12Z GFS from 72-84 hours.

Everything is relative and past performance is no indication of future trends, but the last two events for the PHI CWA, the gem has been steadiest (and more accurate). I'd watch the 50-50 low as much as the Rockies Ridge dp/dt the gfs solutions (and why it has become the southeastern streamer) for the last three sounding runs, its not forecasting it to move out of the way as quickly as other models leaving the confluence zone over the eastern conus longer.

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Mt. Holly says NO to the GFS.

  Quote

THE 12Z GFS HAS A MUCH WEAKER SFC LOW, VIRTUALLY NO WELL DEFINED

VORT AND AS A RESULT IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE H5 PATN AND

KEEPS A MUCH WKR SFC LOW WELL TO OUR S AND E. THE 12Z GFS SOLN IS

AS CLOSE TO A NON-EVENT AS THE MDLS ARE SHOWING ATTM. HOWEVER, THE

GFS IS THE OUTLIER AND IS BEING DISCOUNTED ATTM.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

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