cnjraider Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Plus, you'd have to qualify storms that passed over us or just inland as near misses also, not just barely OTS ones. I agree. It would be a nightmare to gather the information and then statistically "treat" it. Someone would need to be put in a room for a while, gather the data and say: __% coast hugger, ___% cutter, ___% coastal BM rider, ___% OTS, etc. Obviously, it's easier posing the question than answering them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I swear storms seem to start later than modeled the last decade or so, before that they always seemed to be a bit early..almost like the models overcompensated a bit for the fact they were always late. This one might win the award. At one time it was suppose to start Christmas Eve. The next thread title is going to have to be Dec 25-28 or 26-29. Its like the arrival gate number at Airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opengeo Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 No comments on the 9z SREFs. Must not be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 so has the almighty Euro been de-throwned?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 No comments on the 9z SREFs. Must not be good. Could be worse out of the US camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 so has the almighty Euro been de-throwned?? Too early to ask that, wouldn't you say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Too early to ask that, wouldn't you say? It seems to be on its own again no? It CLEARLY had two awful runs with the past storm...and with this storm it seems to be bullish again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Any comments on the 12Z NAM. I am concerned that the pac northwest low is too far south and east casusing the ridge to nudge east. at hr 54 Any comments form mets would be much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 so has the almighty Euro been de-throwned?? I think at about 1:30 this afternoon it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 looking at the 12NAM at 60 hrs two things stick out to me as being troublesome...one is the huge 50/50, i know its been discussed but its HUGE...and the 850 flow along the EC just doesnt look conducive...hopefully im wrong.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 It seems to be on its own again no? It CLEARLY had two awful runs with the past storm...and with this storm it seems to be bullish again... It may have only had the NAM on its side but early indications out of the model thread seem like it may lose the NAM today too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 looking at the 12NAM at 60 hrs two things stick out to me as being troublesome...one is the huge 50/50, i know its been discussed but its HUGE...and the 850 flow along the EC just doesnt look conducive...hopefully im wrong.... I agree, not a good looking map...very strong confluence over the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I agree, not a good looking map...very strong confluence over the NE. Good Lord! That confluence has been there on every run. Relax folks. It may not look good on NAM, but until the Euro folds, I have faith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I expect a very slight NW jog with the 12z runs of the NAM and GFS and then watch the 12z Euro make a big jump toward the GFS. Those still holding out hope will not be in a great mood around 1 or 2pm this afternoon. Good Lord! That confluence has been there on every run. Relax folks. It may not look good on NAM, but until the Euro folds, I have faith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cnjraider Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I expect a very slight NW jog with the 12z runs of the NAM and GFS and then watch the 12z Euro make a big jump toward the GFS. Those still holding out hope will not be in a great mood around 1 or 2pm this afternoon. I agree. I suggest looking at the statistical discussions on pages 40 and 41 illustrating that the odds are not on our side. However, I would never say never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I agree. I suggest looking at the statistical discussions on pages 40 and 41 illustrating that the odds are not on our side. However, I would never say never. If I told you PHL would be over 75" of snow last year and that we'd be a part of 2 KU events in a week and 3 within a month, would you have believed it? Statistical analysis wouldn't have predicted that either--no disrespect to Tony (rainshadow)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The NAM is trying.. It looks to somewhat phase 2 pieces of energy at 84, but like others are saying, it might be a bit too late and still likely a bit too far east for our comfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 At 78 appears to be phasing better with northern stream, but with a tad more confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I expect a very slight NW jog with the 12z runs of the NAM and GFS and then watch the 12z Euro make a big jump toward the GFS. Those still holding out hope will not be in a great mood around 1 or 2pm this afternoon. I echo these sentiments exactly although I don't think the NAM run improved at all. Today's 12z Euro I think will jump east more in line with its ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 So i guess we should expect a long cold dry winter...lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I echo these sentiments exactly although I don't think the NAM run improved at all. Today's 12z Euro I think will jump east more in line with its ensembles. Then you have no clue what you are looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The 12z NAM absolutely did improve, no question about that, the only question remaining is, will it improve enough to bring the storm up the coast. It did take a step in that direction with this run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cnjraider Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 If I told you PHL would be over 75" of snow last year and that we'd be a part of 2 KU events in a week and 3 within a month, would you have believed it? Statistical analysis wouldn't have predicted that either--no disrespect to Tony (rainshadow)... As we discussed, there is a chance that the odds mentioned go up as a result of where we are today (some model support versus picking a random day) but the odds are still pretty low. I agree 100% with you that I wouldn't have thought you'd get 75" of snow last year, however, based on statistics what would you think the odds of getting that again this year are (or any given year)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Why is it on every run there seems to be a large groups of postings saying that the storm will not happen? Even if only model showed it, it could potentially verify and something you cannot discount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Sounds like some are lining up now to be the first to have 'called' the demise of the Euro fantasy runs. I am not saying you guys are wrong, just an observation and it makes me chuckle. I really hate this part of the tracking timeline, it turns into somewhat of a pissing contest with people predicting what the next op run will look like and then going, "SEE!!! I TOLD YA!!!". BTW, have we seen many instances where the Euro caves to the GFS? In my limited experience, it's usually the other way around.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cnjraider Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 As we discussed, there is a chance that the odds mentioned go up as a result of where we are today (some model support versus picking a random day) but the odds are still pretty low. I agree 100% with you that I wouldn't have thought you'd get 75" of snow last year, however, based on statistics what would you think the odds of getting that again this year are (or any given year)? By the way, model watching and analyzing is more entertaining than statistical analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethlehemBlizzard Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 By the way, model watching and analyzing is more entertaining than statistical analysis. Tell me about it. I teach stats and I would rather analyze models than do statistical analysis!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 We aren't going to have epic blizzards every winter. Yes the pattern will relax and I'm sure it will warm up but that doesn't mean we wont have a few shots at some accumulating snows. So i guess we should expect a long cold dry winter...lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I wish the EURO had more support...alas, where I am, I don't feel good about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 So i guess we should expect a long cold dry winter...lame. Actually, once the pattern breaks down, we'll have a long warm and dry winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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