NYC/PHL December 24-27 Potential - Part 2

[Ericjcrash]

GFS is getting close, that east coast vortex still has a negative influence though and it flattens the height field. No self development and no negative tilt early on. You need that for this thing to hook into the coast. Otherwise you get a UK solution. I have a feeling this will bomb but way off coast like the 0Z UK.

Good call there.

[Hailstorm]

I'd prefer the northern stream to dig deeper in the overall set up. Strangely the only model to dig the shortwave into the gulf that far sourth was the Nogaps.. and it missed the phase completely.. resulted in the northern stream forming a low pressure eventually way way way out in the Atlantic.

I agree; the southern stream energy pretty much was paltry upon the phase on this run also. Nice avatar, by the way.

[baroclinic_instability]

Well the 06Z GFS presents another solution. A missed phase early with a secondary phase...but that is too late and it goes OTS. Shows we are needle threading here. Phase needs to be at the exact right time. GFS just went from too early of a phase to too late.

[atownwxwatcher]

Well the 06Z GFS presents another solution. A missed phase early with a secondary phase...but that is too late and it goes OTS. Shows we are needle threading here. Phase needs to be at the exact right time. GFS just went from too early of a phase to too late.

What do you think about the drastic drop south between 00z 60 hrs and 06 Z 54 hrs? Could this be the reason why it missed the phase?

[baroclinic_instability]

What do you think about the drastic drop south between 00z 60 hrs and 06 Z 54 hrs? Could this be the reason why it missed the phase?

Yeah, I think the very reason why. I will say models stink with phasing, and it is difficult for them to realistically simulate the process. Note how close it is to phasing early but it just "misses". Really close...

Even though the solution is way OTS, it is really close to what it needs to be for a direct hit.

[A-L-E-X]

Well the 06Z GFS presents another solution. A missed phase early with a secondary phase...but that is too late and it goes OTS. Shows we are needle threading here. Phase needs to be at the exact right time. GFS just went from too early of a phase to too late.

It will be interesting to see when the GEFS come out in a bit, if they are in agreement with the OP or we have a cluster of varying solutions lol.

[atownwxwatcher]

Yeah, I think the very reason why. I will say models stink with phasing, and it is difficult for them to realistically simulate the process. Note how close it is to phasing early but it just "misses". Really close...

Even though the solution is way OTS, it is really close to what it needs to be for a direct hit.

Interesting so ..if that is the reason why the GFS potentially misses the phase then that bomb it developed at 120 could have potentially been more like ECMish?

[baroclinic_instability]

It will be interesting to see when the GEFS come out in a bit, if they are in agreement with the OP or we have a cluster of varying solutions lol.

I hate to say it, but I have a strong feeling, given how "close" everything is, that the ensemble members will be all over the map. This event is becoming not much different than the last...we need everything to happen at the exact right time or we get these disparate solutions. Still not as bad as the last potential storm...and I still give this a much higher probability of happening. Still not an easy forecast.

These type of nor'easter events are either boom or bust, no middle ground. It either effects the coast as a monster storm, or nothing happens. Hard to forecast that in an operational sense.

[SnowGoose69]

As a side note, even if the GFS was a hit, the storm might now be on the 27th!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[A-L-E-X]

I hate to say it, but I have a strong feeling, given how "close" everything is, that the ensemble members will be all over the map. This event is becoming not much different than the last...we need everything to happen at the exact right time or we get these disparate solutions. Still not as bad as the last potential storm...and I still give this a much higher probability of happening. Still not an easy forecast.

These type of nor'easter events are either boom or bust, no middle ground. It either effects the coast as a monster storm, or nothing happens. Hard to forecast that in an operational sense.

Yes, the only way out of the boom or bust forecast would be a middle ground which is closer to bust then it is to boom lol.... I was thinking of some of the storms referenced in the main thread, which hit NC/VA and then swung right and up to hit eastern NE.... basically giving areas like NYC a couple of inches in between. The analogs being mentioned were 12/2004 and 2/89.... the latter in a strong la nina.

[baroclinic_instability]

Yes, the only way out of the boom or bust forecast would be a middle ground which is closer to bust then it is to boom lol.... I was thinking of some of the storms referenced in the main thread, which hit NC/VA and then swung right and up to hit eastern NE.... basically giving areas like NYC a couple of inches in between. The analogs being mentioned were 12/2004 and 2/89.... the latter in a strong la nina.

This must have been one of them?

Yeah impossible to nail that. Look at that phase. Timing has to be perfect, and tiny track differences lend themselves to massive snow totals. I have a feeling this one was likely not well forecast? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2004/us1226j3.php

[SnowGoose69]

Yes, the only way out of the boom or bust forecast would be a middle ground which is closer to bust then it is to boom lol.... I was thinking of some of the storms referenced in the main thread, which hit NC/VA and then swung right and up to hit eastern NE.... basically giving areas like NYC a couple of inches in between. The analogs being mentioned were 12/2004 and 2/89.... the latter in a strong la nina.

It resembles 3/2/09 a bit more....3/2/09 was a very similar storm to 2/24/89 but the ridging out west was significantly stronger in the 2009 storm, similar to this one, but this event would in the way both the 89 and 09 events sort of made a left hook to come due northward up the coast as opposed to the more typical NE motion would likely do the same if it got captured.

[SnowGoose69]

This must have been one of them?

Yeah impossible to nail that. Look at that phase. Timing has to be perfect, and tiny track differences lend themselves to massive snow totals. I have a feeling this one was likely not well forecast? http://www.meteo.psu...04/us1226j3.php

It actually was forecast relatively well...most models and forecasts had it as a miss from about the 22nd or 23rd onward although there was still some hope it would trend west....the day of the event NYC/W LI saw more snow than expected from the strong upper low.

[baroclinic_instability]

It actually was forecast relatively well...most models and forecasts had it as a miss from about the 22nd or 23rd onward although there was still some hope it would trend west....the day of the event NYC/W LI saw more snow than expected from the strong upper low.

That is amazing, I don't envy the east coast forecasters. The shape of the coastline and the placement of the large population centers, the general placement of the Gulf Stream relative to the coast, the fact marine cyclogenesis/latent heat release and moist diabatic effects play a prominent role in this type of feedback cyclogenesis/exponential growth of the disturbance--it is a forecasting nightmare.

[A-L-E-X]

It resembles 3/2/09 a bit more....3/2/09 was a very similar storm to 2/24/89 but the ridging out west was significantly stronger in the 2009 storm, similar to this one, but this event would in the way both the 89 and 09 events sort of made a left hook to come due northward up the coast as opposed to the more typical NE motion would likely do the same if it got captured.

Actually 3/2/09 wouldnt be half bad if that kind of solution verified, as I remember we got something like 8-10 inches from that, with 16" on eastern LI. What made that event memorable was the gravity wave which rolled on in around 5 am and made it feel like we were in a blizzard for about 20 min.

That was our first major snowfall since the Feb 06 blizzard.

[A-L-E-X]

It actually was forecast relatively well...most models and forecasts had it as a miss from about the 22nd or 23rd onward although there was still some hope it would trend west....the day of the event NYC/W LI saw more snow than expected from the strong upper low.

We got 2-3 inches from that-- but what a sharp cut off that was! That was the winter of the Miller B's and more likely than not, snow was backing in from the east off the ocean that season. The memory of that near miss was erased because the rest of the winter was so good-- January and March in particular.

[A-L-E-X]

It resembles 3/2/09 a bit more....3/2/09 was a very similar storm to 2/24/89 but the ridging out west was significantly stronger in the 2009 storm, similar to this one, but this event would in the way both the 89 and 09 events sort of made a left hook to come due northward up the coast as opposed to the more typical NE motion would likely do the same if it got captured.

The ridging out west being stronger also sets this apart from last week's near miss which ended up retrograding and dumping a foot on Cape Cod. That 2/89 storm will live in infamy for dumping 19" on ACY while nothing fell in Philly and NYC-LI got 2-5"

[A-L-E-X]

That is amazing, I don't envy the east coast forecasters. The shape of the coastline and the placement of the large population centers, the general placement of the Gulf Stream relative to the coast, the fact marine cyclogenesis/latent heat release and moist diabatic effects play a prominent role in this type of feedback cyclogenesis/exponential growth of the disturbance--it is a forecasting nightmare.

Sometimes I wish I lived in an area where there was more consistency in terms of the type of weather you can expect-- there is so much variance here, its hard to count on much of anything. The densely populated megalopolis adds to the immense amount of pressure weather forecasters are under. In a much more lightly populated area a miss of 50 miles isnt such a big deal-- here it's a major news story. It's a good thing that the old Chinese practice of giving the death penalty to forecasts that bust is no longer applied

Speaking of which, I wonder if a similar situation in terms of weather unpredictability and pressures to get the minute details right exists in the Far East? Eastern China, Japan, Hong Kong and Korea are all extremely densely populated and they feature some of the same storm tracks the east coast does, since their east shores border the Pacific (well Japan and Korea at least lol.) I've heard the easternmost point in Japan likened to Cape Hatteras, NC-- so it probably makes a "good" catch for some recurving Pacific typhoons as well as noreaster-type storms. I've heard the northernmost island of Japan (Hokkaido I think?) is really good for skiing (some high mountains) and gets a ton of snowfall. Since they get larger number of typhoons than the US east coast, I wonder if they also get higher numbers of noreasters in the winter and if the general latitudinal basis for where it snows is similar to what it is on the US east coast.

Way off topic I know, but I find global weather intriguing.

[Snow_Miser]

Good morning!

While the GFS continued to show an OTS scenario, one thing that really changed, was that the GFS trended towards the Euro's idea of a Miller A and was slower with the storm. Euro has really not changed at all with this storm... while the NAM continues to be the Euro's evil twin.

[A-L-E-X]

One thing I remember reading about awhile back is that the largest temperature differentials for SST for any oceanic beaches are near ACY and on the South Korean coast. Winter time SST are in the mid 30s and summer time SST can be up to around 80.

[A-L-E-X]

Sometimes I wish I lived in an area where there was more consistency in terms of the type of weather you can expect-- there is so much variance here, its hard to count on much of anything. The densely populated megalopolis adds to the immense amount of pressure weather forecasters are under. In a much more lightly populated area a miss of 50 miles isnt such a big deal-- here it's a major news story. It's a good thing that the old Chinese practice of giving the death penalty to forecasts that bust is no longer applied

Speaking of which, I wonder if a similar situation in terms of weather unpredictability and pressures to get the minute details right exists in the Far East? Eastern China, Japan, Hong Kong and Korea are all extremely densely populated and they feature some of the same storm tracks the east coast does, since their east shores border the Pacific (well Japan and Korea at least lol.) I've heard the easternmost point in Japan likened to Cape Hatteras, NC-- so it probably makes a "good" catch for some recurving Pacific typhoons as well as noreaster-type storms. I've heard the northernmost island of Japan (Hokkaido I think?) is really good for skiing (some high mountains) and gets a ton of snowfall. Since they get larger number of typhoons than the US east coast, I wonder if they also get higher numbers of noreasters in the winter and if the general latitudinal basis for where it snows is similar to what it is on the US east coast.

Way off topic I know, but I find global weather intriguing.

One major difference might be that when the Far East gets CAA it comes from Siberia and Manchuria, while we have measly old Canada to depend upon.

[baroclinic_instability]

Sometimes I wish I lived in an area where there was more consistency in terms of the type of weather you can expect-- there is so much variance here, its hard to count on much of anything. The densely populated megalopolis adds to the immense amount of pressure weather forecasters are under. In a much more lightly populated area a miss of 50 miles isnt such a big deal-- here it's a major news story. It's a good thing that the old Chinese practice of giving the death penalty to forecasts that bust is no longer applied

Speaking of which, I wonder if a similar situation in terms of weather unpredictability and pressures to get the minute details right exists in the Far East? Eastern China, Japan, Hong Kong and Korea are all extremely densely populated and they feature some of the same storm tracks the east coast does, since their east shores border the Pacific (well Japan and Korea at least lol.) I've heard the easternmost point in Japan likened to Cape Hatteras, NC-- so it probably makes a "good" catch for some recurving Pacific typhoons as well as noreaster-type storms. I've heard the northernmost island of Japan (Hokkaido I think?) is really good for skiing (some high mountains) and gets a ton of snowfall. Since they get larger number of typhoons than the US east coast, I wonder if they also get higher numbers of noreasters in the winter and if the general latitudinal basis for where it snows is similar to what it is on the US east coast.

Way off topic I know, but I find global weather intriguing.

Time for bed. But one thing to say, after reading your OT posts as well as your weather posts, you would have made one hell of a met, not only because of your weather savvy, but because of your insight into human tendencies and psychology. Weather forecasting is a big game really, and the reality is weather is a chaotic mess with an amount of variability no meteorologist or weather model can account for. I like that, and it seems you do too. I wrestle with the thought that, as much as I may know about meteorology, I really know very little. This disturbs me. But this also excites me because I know we will never know everything. It makes life fun. End of OT rant.

Goodnite.

[SnowGoose69]

Japan gets way less snow than you'd think outside of the far north Island and the higher terrain on the west side of the main island...the culprit really is the Sea of Japan to the west, if you had all land there most of the cyclones that tracked to their east during the winter would have a good chance of bringing snow...3 inches of snow in Tokyo is armageddon.

[A-L-E-X]

Time for bed. But one thing to say, after reading your OT posts as well as your weather posts, you would have made one hell of a met, not only because of your weather savvy, but because of your insight into human tendencies and psychology. Weather forecasting is a big game really, and the reality is weather is a chaotic mess with an amount of variability no meteorologist or weather model can account for. I like that, and it seems you do too. I wrestle with the thought that, as much as I may know about meteorology, I really know very little. This disturbs me. But this also excites me because I know we will never know everything. It makes life fun. End of OT rant.

Goodnite.

Thanks, I take that as a very high complement coming from you. Psychology has always fascinated me, because it requires an artistic/intuitive grasp to be able to apply it wisely. I've always thought that learning more about the different sciences expands our total knowledge, but at the same time decreases the proportion of what we know in comparison to what we could learn. IOW when we knew less we also had less of a capacity to know more, but as we advanced, not only did we gain knowledge but even more importantly we gained the capacity to learn much much more. And that I think is the true value of learning-- not knowledge itself, but being able to gain the ability to reach a higher plane on which you can learn so much more. That's where all the great advancements in science and technology come from.

I think the day any of us thinks we dont have much to learn anymore is the day we put up a wall between what we know and how much more we can learn and it's the day that we stop growing.

[A-L-E-X]

Japan gets way less snow than you'd think outside of the far north Island and the higher terrain on the west side of the main island...the culprit really is the Sea of Japan to the west, if you had all land there most of the cyclones that tracked to their east during the winter would have a good chance of bringing snow...3 inches of snow in Tokyo is armageddon.

Thanks, SG. I always thought of Tokyo as more like the southern MA in terms of climo, considering that it's located near that coastward projection that has been compared to Cape Hatteras. Hokkaido to the north (which seems to have its own culture lol, much like the Basques of northern Spain-- the Ainu don't even seem to have the same background as the rest of the Japanese) is the place I'd heard is spectacular for snow. Much less densely populated too.

[A-L-E-X]

Saw this posted by Kevin in the New England subforum and I thought I would repost it here. It's from Cisco, but I think it might be based off the 12z EURO, as the 0z EURO ENS MEAN was quite a bit SE of the OP

Still, its fun to read-- let's just hope it doesnt get relegated to trivia like the discussions leading up to March 2001 lol

WITH THE ECMWF LOCKING ONTO AN

EVOLUTION THAT TAKES THE DEVELOPING LOW TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE

AND THEN SHARPLY UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE GEM GLOBAL FOLLOWED

THE EUROPEAN CENTRE TRACK ON ITS 00Z/21 RUN...BUT HAS SWUNG THE

SYSTEM OUT WIDER OVER THE ATLANTIC THE LAST TWO RUNS. THE GFS HAS

SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHERN ROUTE ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON ITS

CURRENT RUN...BUT LIKE THE GEM GLOBAL...DIRECTS THE CYCLONE WELL

SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. THE ECENS MEMBERS HAVE AVERAGED

CLOSE TO THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF...WITH MANY MEMBERS FOLLOWING IT

EXACTLY...AND OTHERS TRACKING A BIT FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE

EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE HAS THE ADVANTAGE IN DEVELOPMENTAL

SYSTEMS WITH ITS HIGH RESOLUTION...AND IS FURTHER AIDED BY ITS

4D-VAR ANALYSIS IN GENERAL. ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE MORE HIGHLY

RESOLVED THAN THE GEFS MEMBERS...AND WITH DYNAMIC...DEVELOPMENTAL

SYSTEMS...THE EUROPEAN GUIDANCE SHOULD HAVE THE EDGE.

INDEED...THE GEFS MEAN HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FLATTER WITH THE PATH

OF THE BIG STORM...WHICH IS CERTAINLY IN LINE WITH THE LOWER

RESOLUTION. EVEN SO...FOUR 00Z/22 GEFS MEMBERS STILL TRACKED

COMPARABLY TO THE ECMWF...SHOWING A DEEP NOREASTER AND A HIGH

IMPACT STORM FOR THE MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS ASTRIDE INTERSTATE

95 FROM WASHINGTON TO BOSTON. TO WIT...THESE GEFS MEMBERS ARE

GOING AGAINST THEIR LOWER RESOLUTION/LESS DEVELOPMENTAL NATURE.

THE ECMWF HAS MUCH CLIMATOLOGY ON ITS SIDE AS WELL...WITH ITS

TRACK WEST OF THE GULF STREAM...AND THE BOMBING PHASE NEAR AND

NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS.

THE MOST UNUSUAL...AND THREATENING...ASPECT OF THE ECMWF FORECAST

IS THE RELATIVELY LOW LATITUDE AT WHICH THE STORM MATURES AND

STALLS/LOOPS. MORE TYPICALLY...SYSTEMS WILL CLOSE OFF AND HOVER

OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA...AS WITH THE MOST RECENT

CYCLONE STILL AFFECTING DOWNEAST MAINE. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE

UPCOMING CIRCULATION COMING TO A HALT JUST EAST OF THE DELMARVA

PENINSULA...WHICH PUTS THE VERY POPULATED AREAS OF THE EASTERN MID

ATLANTIC...LONG ISLAND...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A PROLONGED

PERIOD OF HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY SNOW. THE

EXTRAORDINARY NEGATIVE NAO THIS MONTH COULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT SUCH

AN ANOMALY. EVEN BEFORE THE RAPID DEEPENING PHASE OF THE

SYSTEM...AREAS OF THE DEEP SOUTH FROM THE INTERIOR GULF COAST

STATES TO GEORGIA AND THE MOUNTAINS AND PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS

MAY SEE A VERY RARE WHITE CHRISTMAS...AGAIN...CONSISTENT WITH THE

REMARKABLE DISRUPTION AT HIGH LATITUDES

[rygar]

Wow, thought for sure either the GFS or Euro would have a drastic change. (I guess has GFS changed somewhat)

[am19psu]

Glad to see nothing has really changed this morning. I'm still thinking SNE is going to get 12+, but our region is up in the air (except E LI). Pending discussions with colleagues, I'm thinking I'll back off my snow totals from NYC to DCA by half.

[Parsley]

Based on what I'm waking up to this morning, I'd still be very excited if I lived east of I-95 from DCA, northeastward. Myself, (about 50-60 miles west of I-95 in eastern PA) I'm not feeling that hot about things at this time (for my backyard), but if the Euro was correct, places 100 miles inland would surely get into the act. Can't wait to see what 12z offers.

[Snow_Miser]

HPC is bullish.