NYC/PHL December 24-27 Potential - Part 2

[earthlight]

[SACRUS]

Timingaccording to this 00z run of the ecm

Snow starts nj/nyc Sunday between 2 and 6pm ends Monday night, peak Sunday night into monday monring/afternoon.

[ptb127]

Not gonna lie, by the sounds of the run I thought the LV (PA) would be getting more than .75-1.

So did I actually.

[BL03]

It's great to see the Euro keeping the bomb run after run. The other models also have bombs but more east... so it looks like it's gonna come down to when the phase occurs. I got a feeling the exact track won't be known for a while..kinda like 93', due to the storms intense strengthening . Hopefully we the EC get the perfect phase timing for this to come up and stall so DC-SNE get it good. Not easy but possible.

[A-L-E-X]

Cutoffs a bit sharper, but sounds terrific!! Thanks, Tom. This as an important run, IMO.

1.5" QPF here. I didnt know the gfs had zilch for us lol-- talk about extremes.

[real]

Not gonna lie, by the sounds of the run I thought the LV (PA) would be getting more than .75-1.

Considering every other model, you should be more than satisfied with 12 to 16 inches and call it a day.

[A-L-E-X]

Timingaccording to this 00z run of the ecm

Snow starts nj/nyc Sunday between 2 and 6pm ends Monday night, peak Sunday night into monday monring/afternoon.

Wow, the timing keeps getting pushed back Tony. Is that a function of the storm stalling out? How long does it take for snow to make it from ACY to NYC? I remember Feb 1983 and PD2 both took a long time for snow to make it north.

[Rtd208]

I pretty much agree with this, although usually with winter storms snow usually moves in 3-6hrs earlier then progged, so I wouldn't be surprised if the snow begin falling during the morning hours in NJ/NYC, thats also taking into consideration the Euro is a slower model bringing in precip.

Timingaccording to this 00z run of the ecm

Snow starts nj/nyc Sunday between 2 and 6pm ends Monday night, peak Sunday night into monday monring/afternoon.

[mattinpa]

1.5" QPF here. I didnt know the gfs had zilch for us lol-- talk about extremes.

Looks like around 1" of QPF for my area.. good ratios, too. I hope so much that the Euro will be the leader with this storm. Crossing fingers.

[Neblizzard]

Taken the euro verbatim this storm would have a massive windfield going up against a 1030 mb high. A true blizzard in every aspect, but I want to see model consistency over the next several days before getting excited. We need the euro to hold serve and for the other models to trend towards this solution. The Canadian is a miss, but NOT by much so that I'm not really concerned at this time.

[Bluescat1]

The bottom line, timing is everything, thanks for the play by play Tombo. Good night see ya around 6:30 maybe.

[atownwxwatcher]

Taken the euro verbatim this storm would have a massive windfield going up against a 1030 mb high. A true blizzard in every aspect, but I want to see model consistency over the next several days before getting excited. We need the euro to hold serve and for the other models to trend towards this solution. The Canadian is a miss, but NOT by much so that I'm not really concerned at this time.

I pretty much think that the ECM has hold serve with this run...which is a good sign...UKMET was not as far east as people made it sound to be and the GFS itself was slowing down as well and dropping the low pressure further south....

[SACRUS]

Wow, the timing keeps getting pushed back Tony. Is that a function of the storm stalling out? How long does it take for snow to make it from ACY to NYC? I remember Feb 1983 and PD2 both took a long time for snow to make it north.

The euro is just slower with tracking the sw and seems precip is condensed and not too expansive initially. Guidance seems to be honing in on sunday so I think finally tomorrow we'l get into the 120 and less timeframe. Also expect the actual storm to be ahead of guidance as is the usual occurance.

[SACRUS]

I pretty much agree with this, although usually with winter storms snow usually moves in 3-6hrs earlier then progged, so I wouldn't be surprised if the snow begin falling during the morning hours in NJ/NYC, thats also taking into consideration the Euro is a slower model bringing in precip.

Agreed Ron. What a journey from where we started with this a christmas eve night start then christmas day now later boxing day into monday the 27th,.. meanwhile the west coast continues to get barraged

[tombo82685]

EC still has a bomb... but did trend SE. Not sure I'm liking that...

ray, honestly, its further west...it just gets captured a lot earlier then stalls then moves east

[Rtd208]

I agree, if this storm comes to fruition it sure looks like a long duration event, looks like 24-36hrs worth.

Agreed Ron. What a journey from where we started with this a christmas eve night start then christmas day now later boxing day into monday the 27th,.. meanwhile the west coast continues to get barraged

[Rtd208]

I know it is probably a bit early, but what would the snow ratios look like for this storm?

[HSNN4]

I pretty much agree with this, although usually with winter storms snow usually moves in 3-6hrs earlier then progged, so I wouldn't be surprised if the snow begin falling during the morning hours in NJ/NYC, thats also taking into consideration the Euro is a slower model bringing in precip.

That is not true, in front of many of these storms there is a alot of dry air to overcome, I been doing this since grade school and most of the biggies I have observed the snow starts some 2 to 3 hours and even later then the progged start times.

[RutgersWx92]

The Euro's consistency has been amazing; isn't this the fourth straight run showing a massive hit for the East Coast? Remember how well the Euro's consistent, out-to-sea depiction ended up turning out last time (other than a couple of hiccup runs). Hopefully that continues this time. This will be a massive win for the Euro if it does turn out this way.

[tombo82685]

The Euro's consistency has been amazing; isn't this the fourth straight run showing a massive hit for the East Coast? Remember how well the Euro's consistent, out-to-sea depiction ended up turning out last time (other than a couple of hiccup runs). Hopefully that continues this time. This will be a massive win for the Euro if it does turn out this way.

its more than that, it might be 5 or 6 straight with good hits

[A-L-E-X]

its more than that, it might be 5 or 6 straight with good hits

Like HM mentioned in the main thread, lets just hope the ultimate analog for this storm doesnt end up being March 2001 lol.

[HSNN4]

I pretty much think that the ECM has hold serve with this run...which is a good sign...UKMET was not as far east as people made it sound to be and the GFS itself was slowing down as well and dropping the low pressure further south....

Good morning.

I visited your web site and just wondering how high do your alerts on your scale go according to your site your on the cusp of a level three alert, for example what would alert status be when an official watch is issued and then an official warning. Thank you. If you would like to PM your answer. Sorry mods to go off topic for a moment.

[real]

That is not true, in front of many of these storm there is a alot of dry air to overcome, I been doing this since grade school and most of the biggies I have observed the snow starts some 2 to 3 hours and even later then the progged start times.

I cant base this on anything scientific, but I have to disagree. Most big storms start earlier than progged, in my experience. It may not be much earlier, but the biggies never seem to hesitate to rush the precip shield up the cost. When they hold back, more often than not, it seems like a sign something is wrong,.

[CooL]

This is now 5 runs in a row now showing a snowstorm..4 of them are hecs

[RutgersWx92]

I know there was some concern with mixing in some places on the 12z Euro; is that the case with this run?

[A-L-E-X]

That is not true, in front of many of these storms there is a alot of dry air to overcome, I been doing this since grade school and most of the biggies I have observed the snow starts some 2 to 3 hours and even later then the progged start times.

Feb 1978 sure started late and caused a disaster on the roads. The same was the case with Feb 1983. Jan 1996 and PD2 started "on time" but it took 4 hours for the snow to move up from the south shore of LI to the north shore.

And you dont have to even look that far back-- 12/19/09 last year also started late-- but made up for in the wee hours of the morning lol (ugh, I hate late night snows-- I want it in the daylight hours!)

[tombo82685]

I know there was some concern with mixing in some places on the 12z Euro; is that the case with this run?

im not sure..850 wise your fine but surface temps on li are abv 32 so im not sure...

[HSNN4]

I cant base this on anything scientific, but I have to disagree. Most big storms start earlier than progged, in my experience. It may not be much earlier, but the biggies never seem to hesitate to rush the precip shield up the cost. When they hold back, more often than not, it seems like a sign something is wrong,.

We did an house study on it one day when things settle down i'll look for it and post on the site the data that we used was based of the EWR TAF forecast and observations from KEWR and a Local NWS Cooperative Weather Station.

[nzucker]

ECM looks to have a cutter in the long-range with a huge arctic front behind it and the coldest air of the season about to arrive. Massive block over Siberia as the -NAO rebuilds first into Iceland, then Greenland. We also have a +PNA/-EPO style block developing by Day 10. ECM looks to be hinting at a cold start to January after a very brief moderation of the temperature pattern.

[green tube]

I know there was some concern with mixing in some places on the 12z Euro; is that the case with this run?

you're a met major and you cant tell from the euro images that there's no way in hell there will be mixing with that track?