NYC/PHL December 24-27 Potential - Part 2

[ptb127]

With caution ptb, we basically need everything perfect for us to get good snows. The EURO verbatim may not be that good. We shall see.

Hazleton is right on line with State College (further west of course) so if they have hvy precip, then we do as well, and probably more so.

[Dsnowx53]

Board reaction to Euro was video taped

[A-L-E-X]

EC still has a bomb... but did trend SE. Not sure I'm liking that...

This looks like one of those storms Josh might want to chase lol.

Long Island is a pretty good place to be in a storm like this

/not

We had fish in our basement during the Halloween 1991 storm and December 1992 still lives in infamy.

[Ericjcrash]

Goodness sakes, did anyone actually look at the NOGAPS? I don't even know what it is doing this run.

Storm for Bermuda.

[A-L-E-X]

It actually just trended further south...it gets captured earlier. The ridge out west was more amplified. Don't see any eastward jogs here.

John, it does looks like it phases earlier, but does it still come all the way up the coast (albeit more slowly.)

[Chris L]

It feels weird talking about a March 1993 type storm in terms of strength, coupled with the stalling out features of Ash Wed 1962 (which peaked at the central Jersey Shore if Im not mistaken) and Dec 1992, which was stronger further north, Long Island to SNE 5-6 days in advance lol. Let's see if this has room to trend slightly north with time.... it probably doesnt have to get more than, what 50 miles further north, to be in the same spot Dec 1992 was when it stalled?

Besides which, a storm of that strength should have a wider area of heavy precip-- unless its tropical lol.

Alex, this is basically the storm you and I talked about, December 1992 with snow.

ECMWF is a glorius run for all of us.

[ravensrule]

John, it does looks like it phases earlier, but does it still come all the way up the coast (albeit more slowly.)

Looks like it does not come as far up the coast before heading more easterly, correct me if i am wrong please John.

[Sn0waddict]

Except for the fact that we certainly aren't waving American flags at the moment

[Dsnowx53]

Except for the fact that we certainly aren't waving American flags at the moment

Let's get some European flags!!!!

[jm1220]

It feels weird talking about a March 1993 type storm in terms of strength, coupled with the stalling out features of Ash Wed 1962 (which peaked at the central Jersey Shore if Im not mistaken) and Dec 1992, which was stronger further north, Long Island to SNE 5-6 days in advance lol. Let's see if this has room to trend slightly north with time.... it probably doesnt have to get more than, what 50 miles further north, to be in the same spot Dec 1992 was when it stalled?

Besides which, a storm of that strength should have a wider area of heavy precip-- unless its tropical lol.

It's not like there's a big SW overrunning flow prior to the storm's arrival which would cause a lot of moderate snow well ahead of the low. The snow seems dynamically forced from strong lifting on this storm, so the northward effect would be limited. In the 1993 storm, snow was already falling heavily in State College by 5-6am on the 13th, about 18 hours from when the low actually came closest because of the strong moist push from the Gulf. It snowed heavily for about 24 straight hours even though the low moved quickly north along the coast.

There would definitely be a concern for beach erosion and coastal flooding with as strong a low as that stalled for any length of time near the Delmarva or Chesapeake Bay. Luckily, the moon won't cause astronomical high tide but it would be a battering storm regardless of how much snow makes it here.

[Bluescat1]

_{HM just said it is close to being a triple phaser.}

[Rtd208]

As much as I love this run of the Euro, I would like to see its ensembles to confirm the OP.

[atownwxwatcher]

This is the image from Raleighs

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPNA144.gif

[Ericjcrash]

Except for the fact that we certainly aren't waving American flags at the moment

lol its a UN operation though.

[NortheastPAWx]

Let's get some European flags!!!!

[Zir0b]

It's not like there's a big SW overrunning flow prior to the storm's arrival which would cause a lot of moderate snow well ahead of the low. The snow seems dynamically forced from strong lifting on this storm, so the northward effect would be limited. In the 1993 storm, snow was already falling heavily in State College by 5-6am on the 13th, about 18 hours from when the low actually came closest because of the strong moist push from the Gulf. It snowed heavily for about 24 straight hours even though the low moved quickly north along the coast.

There would definitely be a concern for beach erosion and coastal flooding with as strong a low as that stalled for any length of time near the Delmarva or Chesapeake Bay. Luckily, the moon won't cause astronomical high tide but it would be a battering storm regardless of how much snow makes it here.

Looking at the 850 RH maps...it looks like it would start snowing in PHL- NYC while the low is still in NC.

[tombo82685]

from greatest to least

orangish red 2-2.5

lgt blue 1.75-2

green 1.5-1.75

pink 1.25-1.5

blue 1-1.25

lgt gray .75-1

[mattinpa]

from greatest to least

orangish red 2-2.5

lgt blue 1.75-2

green 1.5-1.75

pink 1.25-1.5

blue 1-1.25

lgt gray .75-1

Cutoffs a bit sharper, but sounds terrific!! Thanks, Tom. This as an important run, IMO.

[Rtd208]

Tombo,

I can't see your map due to my internet connection, what is the QPF like for the Trenton to Newark NJ corridor??

from greatest to least

orangish red 2-2.5

lgt blue 1.75-2

green 1.5-1.75

pink 1.25-1.5

blue 1-1.25

lgt gray .75-1

[SACRUS]

Thanks tombo

recap 12/22 00z NYC QPF

gfs : 0.0

ukmet : 0.0

GGEM : 0.10

ECM : 1.20"

[SmokeEater]

Tombo,

I can't see your map due to my internet connection, what is the QPF like for the Trenton to Newark NJ corridor??

1 to 1.25

[psuhoffman]

EC still has a bomb... but did trend SE. Not sure I'm liking that...

not sure about that... its identical early on then its east once you get north of the mid atlantic because it gets captured further south and turns east. I guess its a matter of perspective, this run is actually better for the mid atlantic, but perhaps less so for New England.

[Manny]

from greatest to least

orangish red 2-2.5

lgt blue 1.75-2

green 1.5-1.75

pink 1.25-1.5

blue 1-1.25

lgt gray .75-1

Everyone pretty much chases in.

[LIsevereWX]

Somebody pinch me!

[ptb127]

Cutoffs a bit sharper, but sounds terrific!! Thanks, Tom. This as an important run, IMO.

1.00" could still be 18" with a high ratios... also, the QPF should be a little higher now for how deep the storm is?

[ravensrule]

Tombo,

I can't see your map due to my internet connection, what is the QPF like for the Trenton to Newark NJ corridor??

Looks like 1- 1.25

[Rtd208]

Sounds good, thanks.

1 to 1.25

[SnowDemon]

Holy mother . . .

[chademer07]

Not gonna lie, by the sounds of the run I thought the LV (PA) would be getting more than .75-1.

[NortheastPAWx]

1.00" could still be 18" with a high ratios... also, the QPF should be a little higher now for how deep the storm is?

Let's be glad the EURO still has a good storm for us...remember the rest of the models give us nearly nothing.