NYC/PHL December 24-27 Potential - Part 2

[tombo82685]

ok just counted sub 972

[NortheastPAWx]

Hits us back here, bud?

I would assume a 976 50mi east of the Chesapeake would mean a good hit for us.

[Manny]

Low captured right on time. The Euro is latching onto a solution. I can smell it, and well based on it previous runs!!!!!

[MidlothianWX]

DT SAYS

DT-wxrisk[11:22:45 PM]: f***l me 976 mb wallops island va

DT-wxrisk[11:22:55 PM]: ****e me wow

[weatherweather]

This will be a true test of the Euro. 3+ runs in a row MECS+. If it nails this it is nearing omnipotency

[A-L-E-X]

March 1993 certainly had a similar outcome, if further west.

Yea, I was thinking about that when considering far south phasers that made it up the coast. This isnt unprecedented in a mod la nina-- wasnt Jan 2000 also a far south phaser?

[Neblizzard]

Nice to see this thing turn the corner, but it keep pushing back the storm each model run, isn't anyone concerned???

[MJO812]

hr 132 sub i cant count all the lines its sub 968 stalled in the same spot as hr 126...dc to nyc shut down

Holy Cannoli :drunk:

[NortheastPAWx]

Until someone posts the Nogaps with a low over the Azores.

Or the KMA which suppresses it to the Virgin Islands

[ptb127]

I would like to see 132 maps please...if possible. Tombo, QPF maps please when done and possible? I am excited here!

:snowman::snowman:

[Zir0b]

ok so this is what 3 runs in a row of the euro showing consistency and not flip flopping? either the Euro is going to prove it's King once again or it will defect to the inferiors.

[tornadojay]

This thing is crawling so slowly up the coast

[eduggs]

hr 132 sub i cant count all the lines its sub 968 stalled in the same spot as hr 126...dc to nyc shut down

That's a pretty early stall. Not classically ideal for Philly northeast, especially up toward SNE. Would be incredible for parts of the south and mid-atlantic.

[pazzo83]

Holy sh*t.

[tombo82685]

hr 138 sub 976 75 miles east of lewes del...lgt to mod precip over dc to nyc...hvy precip all the way back to pit with mod precip garret county md to state college to albany

[A-L-E-X]

Low captured right on time. The Euro is latching onto a solution. I can smell it, and well based on it previous runs!!!!!

I believe I read somewhere the 0z euro has the highest verification scores, followed by the 12z euro and then the 12z gfs.

[stormtracker]

Nice to see this thing turn the corner, but it keep pushing back the storm each model run, isn't anyone concerned???

Were you the poster who just posted that the Euro was going to go out to sea?

[jm1220]

It's insane how far south this thing is captured and then stalled. We might actually want it to be captured a little later than this run shows so the worst of it hits us and not Balt/DC (although we would be hit very hard regardless).

[SACRUS]

2010 Boxing Day Storm

Intesrestingly the ggem/ uk (957mb) with their bombs indicate signal is robust for one heck of a storm

GGGEM

[tombo82685]

hr 144 976 low bout 100-150 miles east of lewes del

[BL03]

[Sn0waddict]

hr 144 976 low bout 100-150 miles east of lewes del

Holy **** this thing is CRAWLING.

[NortheastPAWx]

hr 138 sub 976 75 miles east of lewes del...lgt to mod precip over dc to nyc...hvy precip all the way back to pit with mod precip garret county md to state college to albany

Wait, don't you mean heavy DC-NYC with light-mod. back to PIT?

[tornadojay]

It develops 2 low pressure centers on this run

[tombo82685]

hr 150 the low is about 350 miles east of lewes del lgt precip over the area

[Rtd208]

WeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeWAWAWAWeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

[uofmiami]

EC Day 6:

[Manny]

hr 138 sub 976 75 miles east of lewes del...lgt to mod precip over dc to nyc...hvy precip all the way back to pit with mod precip garret county md to state college to albany

Kiss me beautiful. (not you of course)

Just a beastifying phase on this run, like the last 3. l

[A-L-E-X]

It's insane how far south this thing is captured and then stalled. We might actually want it to be captured a little later than this run shows so the worst of it hits us and not Balt/DC (although we would be hit very hard regardless).

Does this remind you somewhat of Dec 92 and where that stalled out? Sounds like its going to stall just east of the delmarva, much like that one did.

The winds with this thing will be amazing.

[tombo82685]

Wait, don't you mean heavy DC-NYC with light-mod. back to PIT?

no