NYC/PHL December 24-27 Potential - Part 2

[nzucker]

Agree, the phase timing is crucial. Ideally we want a slow southern wave and a northern s/w that comes into the picture rather quickly like the 12z euro and phases the storm near AL/MS (GFS phasing occurs closer to the SE US coast).

The disappointing aspect of this storm is it went from guaranteed snow via strong overrunning to being another all or nothing scenario based on a complex phase, and we know how these tend to work out. I'm not saying the threat is over by any means, but the dampening of the southern stream shortwave means we have less of a chance at a nice moderate event and now are relying on the northern stream to create an H5 capture in time before the surface low scoots east as has been the trend this season. There's a very high likelihood of an ocean storm in this situation with the only areas receiving good overrunning in the Midwest/Plains states; if it tucks tight to the coast, sure it will be a bomb, but it is a high risk/high reward type of scenario. The problem with the extreme -NAO/-AO blocking is we're missing all the regular La Niña small-moderate snowfalls from SW flow events and clippers, one of the reasons New England is so far below average this season.

[eduggs]

As a meteorologist, I think I have the right to tell you to shut your trap...you have no idea what you're talking about.

You can tell me whatever you like. But it's true. And how do you know for sure what I do and do not know?

Please tell me how scientific reasoning can inform an assessment as to whether or not tonight's 4.5 day Canadian chart will verify along the east coast?

[tombo82685]

alright the 0z euro is coming out

[Rtd208]

LOL, this has my vote for post of the year.

Oh, really? I'm not a scientist now? The absurd amounts of thermodynamics, dynamic meteo, atmospheric chemistry, atmospheric microphysics, chemistry, mechanics, electronics and magnetism classes I took are not good enough for you?

Well sh*t, I guess I'll just quit my job now.

[tombo82685]

You can tell me whatever you like. But it's true. And how do you know for sure what I do and do not know?

Please tell me how scientific reasoning can inform an assessment as to whether or not tonight's 4.5 day Canadian chart will verify along the east coast?

can you tell me how this relates to the storm threat? take it to OT

[forkyfork]

i know it's the sref, but some of these members are pretty good

[RutgersWx92]

Scientific reasoning plays almost no roll in forecasting these days. We pretty much wait for model output and copy that into a forecast. If we are smart we use statistical methods to assess probabilities, but that's not how we do things around here.

If this were really true then what would be the point of even having meteorologists?

[56er]

Do you know anything about Rossby waves? I'll leave it at that.

So what does the calculus of Rossby waves tell you about the upcoming event that the models do not? How does that make you a better forecaster?

[ARyan]

You can tell me whatever you like. But it's true. And how do you know for sure what I do and do not know?

Please tell me how scientific reasoning can inform an assessment as to whether or not tonight's 4.5 day Canadian chart will verify along the east coast?

Feel free to PM any of us. We'd love to enlighten you. But please stop clogging the thread with your useless banter.

[jm1220]

Pattern recognition is largely a myth. A close analog to a blizzard might ultimately miss. A human might recognize the similarity and predict a blizzard. But a supercomputer is much better suited to predict the likelihood of the storm. The human guesses and the computer performs millions of calculations. How would "science" even play a roll in this scenario? The science is built into the model physics.

No outcome in this field is ever a certainty, it's only a matter of probability. When certain patterns appear on models, and we know that very similar patterns produced epic snowstorms in the past, it's only fair to assign a higher probability of a major storm to that modeled pattern. Eventually, consistent modelling over multiple runs, particularly close to the outcome increases the probability greatly as more measurements and data are available to be assimilated by the model. It works the same way when assigning probabilities to major storm outcomes where the overall pattern doesn't look favorable for a major storm, and the probability increases the closer in to the outcome. No one in their right mind is forecasting a blizzard 5-6 days out based on modelling today. If in 3 days the blizzard is still there, the blizzard forecast is much more warranted

[eduggs]

Wrong again champ.

"Phasing" and "northern stream" and "confluence" and "digging" are not scientific terms. Those are shorthand ways of describing physical interactions that are poorly understood by meteorology students and well beyond the grasp of most forum participants. Most analysis boils down to a description of what various charts show and a rationalization of what might or might not happen based on these loosely understood concepts. But we cannot know what will happen. We are forced to make educated guesses based on statistical trends.

[ARyan]

So what does the calculus of Rossby waves tell you about the upcoming event that the models do not? How does that make you a better forecaster?

PM me.

[NittanyWx]

You can tell me whatever you like. But it's true. And how do you know for sure what I do and do not know?

Please tell me how scientific reasoning can inform an assessment as to whether or not tonight's 4.5 day Canadian chart will verify along the east coast?

Can inform an assessment? What on earth does that phrase mean?

I'll go ask a supercomputer.

[jm1220]

You can tell me whatever you like. But it's true. And how do you know for sure what I do and do not know?

Please tell me how scientific reasoning can inform an assessment as to whether or not tonight's 4.5 day Canadian chart will verify along the east coast?

As someone who knows him personally, I can tell you he knows a heck of a lot.

[eduggs]

I think if you are going to make such assertions, you should at least give us your background, and what basis you have for making those conclusions? not saying you are wrong (although i have my doubts), but I would like to know where you are coming from with all of this.

That's a very fair request. But I've always felt that a person's perceived background strongly influences the way their posts are received. I prefer to imagine a place where people are judged by what they say instead of the color of their tag.

[tombo82685]

hr 24 has a closed h5 low in cali...ridge out ahead looks stronger

[real]

tombo82685 this may be the inappropriate forum to say this, but you do an amazing job with the model runs. Thanks. Do you ever sleep, or just 4 separate cat naps a day during winter. Regardless, appreciated.

[tombo82685]

through hr 30 everything looks basically the same so far...front side ridge is a little stronger and the low may be a hair slower but not by much

[tombo82685]

hr 36 has a closed low over northwest arz...looks a lil slower again

[Ericjcrash]

hr 36 has a closed low over northwest arz...looks a lil slower again

Lol This is going to take an eternity.

[tombo82685]

hr 42 the s/w may be a little less amplified than 12z...it speeded up a little more not much difference now with s/w position

[mattinpa]

hr 36 has a closed low over northwest arz...looks a lil slower again

How's the confluence in the east look?

[tombo82685]

hr 48 has a sub 1012 low over se col, looks alilttle further north compared to 12z... timing is identical to 12z as of now...

[chademer07]

Lol This is going to take an eternity.

This might change to the New Year's Eve storm pretty soon.

[tombo82685]

hr 54, h5 low is over ne new mex.. s/w is a little weaker..precip just starting to break out in plains

[eduggs]

If this were really true then what would be the point of even having meteorologists?

Valid question. In the short range a forecaster can play a very important role in my opinion. And there are a variety of specialties like hydrology, tropical, severe, agricultural, energy etc... where skill probably plays a part. But mid-range mid-latitude forecasting is not well suited to human input. On to the Euro!

[psuhoffman]

How's the confluence in the east look?

thats not the problem, 12z euro was the strongest with the vortex over the northeast and still bombed out the low. That may actually be why it bombed out as the block slowed everything down and allowed it to amplify behind it. This is about how the northern branch phases with the STJ

[Ericjcrash]

hr 54, h5 low is over ne new mex.. s/w is a little weaker..precip just starting to break out in plains

Uh oh....the S/w is killing us tonight.

[eduggs]

So what does the calculus of Rossby waves tell you about the upcoming event that the models do not? How does that make you a better forecaster?

[tombo82685]

hr 60 has a closed h5 low over amarillo... little weaker than 12z...lgt precip over northern plains lgt to mod precip from ks to tex