NYC/PHL December 24-27 Potential - Part 2

[thedude11]

The GFS has flip flopped NUMEROUS times over the past few days. Interestingly, the EURO has held par for the past 2 days or so. This consistency should not be dismissed. If it continues to show a coastal bomb in a few hours, then that's really gotta show you something - especially considering the GFS looks like it's slowly trending toward the ECMWF at H5. Relax fellas have some confidence.

[baroclinic_instability]

are you saying the pv from hudson bay area region?

No the southern PV. My thoughts through all this time were it needed to be sufficiently strong enough to enhance low level CAA towards the GOM and develop an initial low level circulation before migrating off the east coast. RIght now as is models keep coming in weaker and weaker with the southern PV just before phase...and the low level circulation looks more pathetic each run. If it isn't there...anything will definitely be OTS without a good leading S/W to incite early cyclogenesis as the trough heads over the Gulf Stream.

[NJHurricane]

Yeah, you almost don't want it to jump ALL the way to the Euro. That's more of a flip-flop. Since we still have time, steady trends would be nice.

true...also...comparing same 126hr from 00z to 138 from 18z....storm is stronger by 10mb...maybe 100-150mb farther west? And yeah to me upper levels look much closer to a phase. I think what is concerning is how much more ground GFS needs to make up to be something like the 12z euro.

If the euro is going to win this battle, I think it will start to become evident starting 00z tommorow.

[Isotherm]

84-87 hours is where the magic happens over the Southeast states..and if you look carefully the GFS doesn't quite phase. If it phases the initial shortwave into the northern stream at that point, the entire thing comes crawling up the coast and rapid cyclogenesis likely occurs on the baroclinic zone.

Yeah it looks to me like a piece of energy is phased around 90 hrs and is sheared off to the NE, but the real phasing doesn't occur until Sunday morning. Streams are pretty much seperate through 100 hours.

[KEITH L.I]

remember many storms Euro had and the GFS(AVN) had out to sea until 24 hrs away..example Jan 96,and Dec 2000..the problem was the se bias..does the GFS still have that..we'll find out in a few days

[tombo82685]

No the southern PV. My thoughts through all this time were it needed to be sufficiently strong enough to enhance low level CAA towards the GOM and develop an initial low level circulation before migrating off the east coast. RIght now as is models keep coming in weaker and weaker with the southern PV just before phase...and the low level circulation looks more pathetic each run. If it isn't there...anything will definitely be OTS without a good leading S/W to incite early cyclogenesis as the trough heads over the Gulf Stream.

Are you just going off the nam and gfs or are you saying every model run since last 0z in terms of all model runs?

[SnoSki14]

The gfs definitely trended toward the Euro but the results remain very different. It's amazing how a slightly stronger and slower shortwave could make all the difference between a massive hit and complete whiff. If the phase occurred a little bit faster than the CCB on hours 126-138 on tonight's gfs would be right on our doorstep.

If the Euro holds serve, then I'm more inclined to believe that the Euro may be onto something.

[Stormlover74]

To me this seems to be a more complicated situation though...either everything comes together perfectly or we get little to nothing

remember many storms Euro had and the GFS(AVN) had out to sea until 24 hrs away..example Jan 96,and Dec 2000..the problem was the se bias..does the GFS still have that..we'll find out in a few days

[baroclinic_instability]

Are you just going off the nam and gfs or are you saying every model run since last 0z in terms of all model runs?

All guidance is trending towards a very weak southern PV anomaly the last few days. It just looks awful on the latest guidance. We will have to see what the ECM does but there is potential that thing is just too weak.

[mattinpa]

Unfortunately, this is turning into a timing event. So we should try to have fun and realize we need a lot to happen again. Good thing is that in the general forum, they said the UKMet looks like the Euro.

[NorthShoreWx]

One thing that I found interesting about the 0z GFS vs the 18z run is that the features on the 0z are slower and the surface low is much deeper at a lower lattitude, yet the eventual track is almost identical to the 18z track.

[SACRUS]

Unfortunately, this is turning into a timing event. So we should try to have fun and realize we need a lot to happen again. Good thing is that in the general forum, they said the UKMet looks like the Euro.

Thru 72, I havent seen any maps or read anywhere what it does beyond there from 72 - 144.

[baroclinic_instability]

Unfortunately, this is turning into a timing event. So we should try to have fun and realize we need a lot to happen again. Good thing is that in the general forum, they said the UKMet looks like the Euro.

These are all timing events, but some have a larger window of opportunity. The general trend with the weak and pathetic looking southern PV things just now have an even smaller window of opportunity. I will wait until the remaining guidance comes in though, I could (and likely am) just be completely wrong.

[mattinpa]

Thru 72, I havent seen any maps or read anywhere what it does beyond there from 72 - 144.

John just said it is too far east after all.

[atownwxwatcher]

One thing that I found interesting about the 0z GFS vs the 18z run is that the features on the 0z are slower and the surface low is much deeper at a lower lattitude, yet the eventual track is almost identical to the 18z track.

Its actually Southwest of 18 Z because its slower....

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs850mbTSLPp06108.gif

Versus

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp06114.gif

[tombo82685]

john, posted the ukmet

[SACRUS]

remember many storms Euro had and the GFS(AVN) had out to sea until 24 hrs away..example Jan 96,and Dec 2000..the problem was the se bias..does the GFS still have that..we'll find out in a few days

These are essentially different models 10 - 15 yrs later. Has th gfs had its usual cold/southeast tendencies much this year?

[mattinpa]

These are all timing events, but some have a larger window of opportunity. The general trend with the weak and pathetic looking southern PV things just now have an even smaller window of opportunity. I will wait until the remaining guidance comes in though, I could (and likely am) just be completely wrong.

That's what I meant. We have a pretty short window for the phase to happen. Of course it still can.

[ace0927]

that isnt any good....

john, posted the ukmet

[NJHurricane]

These are all timing events, but some have a larger window of opportunity. The general trend with the weak and pathetic looking southern PV things just now have an even smaller window of opportunity. I will wait until the remaining guidance comes in though, I could (and likely am) just be completely wrong.

Yeah...it seems like we are going from threading a normal piece of thread into a big ole needle eye...now we are trying to thread a piece of yarn through a smaller eye. bleh

[greg ralls]

Wow, now I can hardly wait to see the euro.

[Stormlover74]

Yeah everyone said how great it looked and how it was similar to the Euro. Unfortunately they didnt let the model play out as it came to a very different end result.

that isnt any good....

[tombo82685]

60 hr gem

[SACRUS]

uk been consitently missing, de ja vu from last week, rooler coaster ride heading down.

[mattinpa]

Someone did make a good point in the general forum that the Ukie tends to have the storm but too far east/suppressed past 72 hours.

[NortheastPAWx]

Trends tonight = Once again the good EURO runs appear to have been fool's gold.

[NorthShoreWx]

Its actually Southwest of 18 Z because its slower....

http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06108.gif

Versus

http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06114.gif

Agreed. What I meant is that although slower at 0z than at 18z (and deeper farther south) if you ignore the timing, the surface low track into the north Atlantic from both runs is very similar...which isn't what I would have expected. I would have expected the slower deeper solution to be closer to the coast and it is not per this run.

[Analog96]

Someone did make a good point in the general forum that the Ukie tends to have the storm but too far east/suppressed past 72 hours.

This is very true.

[NaoPos]

Trends tonight = Once again the good EURO runs appear to have been fool's gold.

Because the GFS didnt trend slower ...

[Stormlover74]

It just sounds like grasping at straws at this point because people are getting nervous. If the Euro looks bad what will people blame that on?

Someone did make a good point in the general forum that the Ukie tends to have the storm but too far east/suppressed past 72 hours.