NYC/PHL December 24-27 Potential - Part 2

[baroclinic_instability]

This could be a good east coast hit through 84 hrs. Not ECM but not OTS like it had.

[tombo82685]

hr 102 has a sub 1012 low east of savannah ga...northern stream still diving in, but its late

[tombo82685]

This could be a good east coast hit through 84 hrs. Not ECM but not OTS like it had.

the northern stream is really lagging in diving in at hr 105

[tombo82685]

hr 117 sub 1000 low heading ots...outer banks getting some snow

[Isotherm]

Are you concerned as well? Over the past day or so we have seen some very significant changes specifically with the northern stream. The lower heights and shortwave over the Northern Plains that are coming into the trough are taking much longer to do so on every run the past day or so. Take the GFS for example. Last nights 00z run had the low heights already into the northern plains with the shortwave well west of the MS. The Euro pulls it off..but it's upper air pattern is close to letting the storm escape if the northern stream doesn't fly south into the trough. The slower northern stream is causing the slower amplification of the trough and capture of the surface low..and that has me concerned because it significantly narrows the window of opportunity for a major coastal storm.

John, good points and I'm also concerned about the nern stream as well. Problem is the northern short wave will be in a data-sparse region longer than the sern short wave. In fact the northern s/w won't be entering the US for another 24+ hours.

As of 90hrs on the GFS, the southern stream s/w is shoved very far SE, and with the H5 map depicted, we've really got to hurry up with the phasing and tilt the trough negative. 00z GFS probably isn't going to look that great.

[JonClaw]

Can't win 'em all I guess...

[baroclinic_instability]

the northern stream is really lagging in diving in at hr 105

Yeah I see that now. A significant shift for the GFS though. Still could develop late. Perhaps CMC like?

[eduggs]

Through day 3 GFS is very similar to the NAM, although slightly more favorable with the heights in the Atlantic. So its progression gives an idea where the NAM stands as well.

[baroclinic_instability]

Forget it, maybe not.

[Allsnow]

hr 117 sub 1000 low heading ots...outer banks getting some snow

Before anyone starts to flip out...this run made significant improvments towards a euro solution....and is real close to crushing all of us...the northern stream is just a tad to late....plus this is slower similiar towards the euro

[mattinpa]

Trends, trends, trends. GFS is slower, more south, and has a more organized low. Now we just need the final piece of it coming up, and we have time for that.

[Quakertown needs snow]

gfs needs to wait till thursday

[mattinpa]

This storm doesn't seem like it will materialize. Most models besides cras,haha want it OTS.

??

No, not most. Some.

[JonClaw]

At least this isn't 24 hours to the event.... THEN we'd have a weenicide epidemic our hands.

[psv88]

Trends, trends, trends. GFS is slower, more south, and has a more organized low. Now we just need the final piece of it coming up, and we have time for that.

So what your saying is, even though it didnt jump from OTS to hit, it made steps in the right as opposed to wrong direction?

[tombo82685]

here is the 0z ukie

[Analog96]

So what your saying is, even though it didnt jump from OTS to hit, it made steps in the right as opposed to wrong direction?

Yeah, you almost don't want it to jump ALL the way to the Euro. That's more of a flip-flop. Since we still have time, steady trends would be nice.

[baroclinic_instability]

What do you guys think?

There is a small but distinct chance this PV has weakened so much it won't really play any part and won't be strong enough as a leading wave to develop a good coastal. Although other factors are at play here, this is just one of many things to consider that hasn't been thrown out in much discussion from what I have seen.

[NortheastPAWx]

I can't tell for sure but it sounds like things are getting less likely for a good storm.

[JonClaw]

here is the 0z ukie

Looks a little slower than the GFS at that time.

[Isotherm]

Before anyone starts to flip out...this run made significant improvments towards a euro solution....and is real close to crushing all of us...the northern stream is just a tad to late....plus this is slower similiar towards the euro

It did make good trends, not sure if I'd say it's real close to being a a good hit though. Phasing of the branches doesn't occur until 12Z SUN when the sfc reflection suggests the low is already on the SC coast.Thus the capturing won't happen until well out to sea. Although the southern stream did slow down significantly on the 00z run, we've got to hope the northern stream energy dives down the base of the trough a bit quicker or we're pretty much doomed.

[atownwxwatcher]

This run took absolutely huge leap towards the ECM...even HM said that.....

[eduggs]

here is the 0z ukie

These 500mb charts are not inspiring confidence. Sure, the amplitude of the jet out west is beautiful, but the Atlantic looks like suppression City! If the Euro hadn't pulled off the impossible and shown what was possible (which could be a 10:1 against scenario for all we know), we might assume we were out of the game.

[JonClaw]

0z Euro will be very interesting. Won't be losing sleep over it though.

[tombo82685]

What do you guys think?

There is a small but distinct chance this PV has weakened so much it won't really play any part and won't be strong enough as a leading wave to develop a good coastal. Although other factors are at play here, this is just one of many things to consider that hasn't been thrown out in much discussion from what I have seen.

are you saying the pv from hudson bay area region?

[earthlight]

84-87 hours is where the magic happens over the Southeast states..and if you look carefully the GFS doesn't quite phase. If it phases the initial shortwave into the northern stream at that point, the entire thing comes crawling up the coast and rapid cyclogenesis likely occurs on the baroclinic zone.

[Sn0waddict]

I can't tell for sure but it sounds like things are getting less likely for a good storm.

Despite the final solution, things seems to be trending towards the EURO.

[mattinpa]

I can't tell for sure but it sounds like things are getting less likely for a good storm.

Only true if the Canadian and Euro and NAM all go towards the GFS.. and even then we still have more runs before giving in.

[Allsnow]

It did make good trends, not sure if I'd say it's real close to being a a good hit though. Phasing of the branches doesn't occur until 12Z SUN when the sfc reflection suggests the low is already on the SC coast.Thus the capturing won't happen until well out to sea. Although the southern stream did slow down significantly on the 00z run, we've got to hope the northern stream energy dives down the base of the trough a bit quicker or we're pretty much doomed.

Until other then the gfs depicts somthing like this i will get concerned..........

[tombo82685]

These 500mb charts are not inspiring confidence. Sure, the amplitude of the jet out west is beautiful, but the Atlantic looks like suppression City! If the Euro hadn't pulled off the impossible and shown what was possible (which could be a 10:1 against scenario for all we know), we might assume we were out of the game.

they said on the radio show the ukmet looks really close to euro