NJHurricane Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 4:05 PM, Alpha5 said: Look very good, much more northern stream digging, and a bit of a later phase....trough going neuatral THis could be good please people...stop reacting to every panel as it comes out...people who do this repeatedly WILL find themselves limited to 5 posts a day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 4:08 PM, Allsnow said: hr 99 she is trying to come up the coast... 996 150 miles se of hse....central nc light to mod snow FAR BETTER run compared to 6Z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Even if it doesn't make it completely this run, it's definitely a step in the right direction and a validation for the EURO so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 988 200 miles west of norfolk....seems its get captured a bit late this run....def going to be a good run for the beaches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 12z gfs is a lot like the 0z canadian...glancing blow for the beaches/Shore, better hit up in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 hr 117 250 miles east of the nj shore down to 980.....mod snow for the shore and LI....light back to phl and nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 4:10 PM, jm1220 said: Even if it doesn't make it completely this run, it's definitely a step in the right direction and a validation for the EURO so far. Canadian has been much more realistic the last couple of days than the stalled out megabombs the Euro is spitting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 OTS (light snow coast inland to 150 miles)but much better with a strong 986 Low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 LMAO there are nearly 500 people viewing the 12z thread in the main forum. That's got to be some kind of record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 BIG step towards the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Eyeballing it this is a warnning critera snow for the jersey shore and LI....sne from orh-east get crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 4:09 PM, NJHurricane said: please people...stop reacting to every panel as it comes out...people who do this repeatedly WILL find themselves limited to 5 posts a day I was about to post this, thank you. We don't need PBP and projections from every frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 4:12 PM, ParanormalWx said: OTS (light snow coast inland to 150 miles)but much better with a strong 986 Low. sub 968 at its strongest on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 4:13 PM, hazwoper said: BIG step towards the EURO thats like a...300-400 mile jump north? about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 BIG jump for GFS. Not there yet but very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The difference this run is how the northern stream dives almost due south and grabs the southern vort up to bomb the storm, near the MS Valley. It still happens just a little too far east but given how far out this is there is still a lot of time for changes. Definitely a HUGE step in the right direction. We just need for it to happen a little further west, like maybe 100 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Well, I guess I am going to bust hard... my forecast to clients looks almost exactly like the 12z GFS In all seriousness, I don't see any major errors with this run and the phasing of the streams is a lot more believable here than any of the previous two days of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 4:15 PM, psv88 said: thats like a...300-400 mile jump north? about? yea, and i wouldn't even call it a jump. the synoptic evolution is different which changes the entire nature of the storm. this is what we wanted to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Look at that CCB just offshore at 114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 is a lot like last's night GGEM....i feel like this is one of the two realistic solutions, with something like the euro being the other. I dont think a total whiff is likely, but glancing blow is still in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 hows this for a jump by goofus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 4:17 PM, Zelocita Weather said: GFS ceded to the GGEM, not the EURO. We'll see if the EURO also gravitates to the compromise (GGEM) position as well this afternoon. This. Would not be surprised if Euro is a bit east and a bit faster at 12z. It was sorta hinting that direction last night but couldn't quite reflect it at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Love to see that the GFS is heading in the direction of the EURO. The 500mb is beautiful, the energy really dives down into the base of the trough and captures the low allowing the tilt to go negative, but just a tad late. Be patient boys, the models will play a few more games with our heads, but that is to be expected at this stage. I think by Friday we will have a good grasp on what this thing will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 good changes fellas.. I was hanging in the main model discussion thread this time around.. it's crowded in there, obviously... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 4:14 PM, Allsnow said: Eyeballing it this is a warnning critera snow for the jersey shore and LI....sne from orh-east get crushed Look for it to trend even further towards the euro in terms of strength and track-- looks like the GFS just folded and all the GFS-huggers got really quiet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 4:18 PM, hazwoper said: Look at that CCB just offshore at 114 indeed....one adjustment run away from being a big hit for most of the megalopolis. Interested to see GGEM and EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 4:17 PM, am19psu said: Well, I guess I am going to bust hard... my forecast to clients looks almost exactly like the 12z GFS In all seriousness, I don't see any major errors with this run and the phasing of the streams is a lot more believable here than any of the previous two days of runs. This is very close to the track and intensity that I have been expecting as the final outcome as well. But what do you look for when you are looking for "errors?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 4:18 PM, GD0815 said: is a lot like last's night GGEM....i feel like this is one of the two realistic solutions, with something like the euro being the other. I dont think a total whiff is likely, but glancing blow is still in play. That was a huge jump by the GFS, and that kind of jump means its likely not done trending but we'll see. It looks a lot more like the EURO than earlier runs, so its also accurate to say its trending towards the EURO. It needs to continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 UKMET came west but not west enough, still good though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 4:22 PM, eduggs said: This is very close to the track and intensity that I have been expecting as the final outcome as well. But what do you look for when you are looking for "errors?" Why bother asking that? Meteorologists aren't scientists. Did you take your statistical mean of every ensemble solution yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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