NYC/PHL December 24-27 Potential - Part 2

[tombo82685]

heres hr 144

[earthlight]

GGEM is a whiff for all parties not on the beaches or out in the water.

[ace0927]

  On 12/22/2010 at 5:02 AM, mattinpa said:

Canadian is east of the Euro but not as east as the GFS.

but its east....and that isnt good.

[Isotherm]

  On 12/22/2010 at 5:00 AM, jm1220 said:

I don't think the difference between the runs has to do with the 50-50 as much. The 50-50 isn't really that dramatically different between both runs. The differences stem from the dampening out of the southern stream energy (which might be the GFS bias at work at it tends to underemphasize southern stream influence, I mean that wave just DISAPPEARS in 6 hours on the 0z run), the speed of that wave, and the strength of the polar vortex in Canada. The ridge is also slightly stronger still on the Euro. I think that if the southern wave stays intact enough and interacts with enough of the northern stream, it'll develop plenty enough of a storm in time to slam us.

You definitely make a good point wrt the GFS bias of weakening the southern stream energy. I think the delayed arrival of the nern stream energy is another problem w/ the 00z GFS run, but just throwing out speculation at this point.

[NorEaster27]

So we have so far GFS/UKMET/GGEM all miss to the east, world against the Euro? I think we all know how that will play out.

[ace0927]

  On 12/22/2010 at 5:02 AM, earthlight said:

GGEM is a whiff for all parties not on the beaches or out in the water.

does the EC succomb to pier pressure? OBVIOUSLY

[SteveB]

So hold on here, we have 4 of 4 models OTS tonight so far?

If the Euro bows to the GFS, it will be a long week.

[SACRUS]

  On 12/22/2010 at 5:02 AM, ace0927 said:

but its east....and that isnt good.

0 for 3 tonight... Amazing frm where we were

[mattinpa]

  On 12/22/2010 at 5:02 AM, PSUHazletonWx said:

Damn, now the GGEM is in the miss camp...never fails with the radio show does it.

Not a complete miss.. maybe slightly east of 12z, but 12z wasn't a major hit. It's close enough not to panic and did phase better.

[Colin]

oy. what a disaster so far. it's a real shame that this went from 'accumulating snow no matter what' to an all or nothing scenario...and once again it's going strongly towards the nothing. i've said it before...if phasing is needed for a storm, it is not going to happen most of the time in a la nina and expectations should be set accordingly. all is not lost...it's christmas time!

[ace0927]

  On 12/22/2010 at 5:03 AM, NorEaster27 said:

So we have so far GFS/UKMET/GGEM all miss to the east, world against the Euro? I think we all know how that will play out.

well to be fair the GGEM is east by about 75-100 miles or so...not really that big a deal....its nothing like the GFS and UK

[jm1220]

Like I said, this is probably the time to start expecting model swings one way and the other, probably for at least a day as they try to resolve all these different features. The one reason I support this threat at all is the overall pattern supporting it and the amplified ridge/trough pattern w/ associated southern stream energy, so the pieces definitely can come together. It's all about specific timing, and 12 hours one way or the other can make or break this event for millions of people.

[ace0927]

  On 12/22/2010 at 5:03 AM, SACRUS said:

0 for 3 tonight... Amazing frm where we were

well the GFS and UK were never hits....the GGEM and EC were. The GGEM is so close...its not really "out to sea"....its really close

[ag3]

  On 12/22/2010 at 5:03 AM, mattinpa said:

Not a complete miss.. maybe slightly east of 12z, but 12z wasn't a major hit. It's close enough not to panic and did phase better.

12z dropped 1.25"-1.50" of qpf for all of NYC, LI and SWCT.

This run doesnt even drop .10".

[jm1220]

  On 12/22/2010 at 5:04 AM, Colin said:

oy. what a disaster so far. it's a real shame that this went from 'accumulating snow no matter what' to an all or nothing scenario...and once again it's going strongly towards the nothing. i've said it before...if phasing is needed for a storm, it is not going to happen most of the time in a la nina and expectations should be set accordingly. all is not lost...it's christmas time!

C'mon man, seriously?

[mattinpa]

  On 12/22/2010 at 5:04 AM, ace0927 said:

well to be fair the GGEM is east by about 75-100 miles or so...not really that big a deal....its nothing like the GFS and UK

True. That's what I was saying. All is not lost yet. But we do need more than one model hitting by tomorrow night, I think.

[Isotherm]

  On 12/22/2010 at 5:03 AM, SACRUS said:

0 for 3 tonight... Amazing frm where we were

Hmm, where has this happened before. All the models ditch and then we wait for the Euro to seal the deal. Seems like Bill Murray's gorundhog day.

But seriously if the Euro ends up east tonight I wouldn't be too concerned as we're still 4-5+ days out with this potential event. The timing of the nern and sern stream phasing is going to be key here. We've got to get a slow, strong southern wave but also the northern energy needs to dive into the trough quick enough to capture the low before it heads NE off the NC coast.

[Colin]

  On 12/22/2010 at 5:06 AM, jm1220 said:

C'mon man, seriously?

am i wrong? gfs/ggem/ukmet all misses....0/3 so far tonight. i don't think there's any argument.

[Analog96]

  On 12/22/2010 at 5:05 AM, algreek3 said:

12z dropped 1.25"-1.50" of qpf for all of NYC, LI and SWCT.

This run doesnt even drop .10".

Don't look just at QPF, you have to look at SLP placement.

[TKFJ]

More analysis, less modelology.

[mattinpa]

  On 12/22/2010 at 5:05 AM, algreek3 said:

12z dropped 1.25"-1.50" of qpf for all of NYC, LI and SWCT.

This run doesnt even drop .10".

It seems the precip field doesn't extend out as far.

[Zir0b]

  On 12/22/2010 at 5:05 AM, algreek3 said:

12z dropped 1.25"-1.50" of qpf for all of NYC, LI and SWCT.

This run doesnt even drop .10".

while its very different at the surface; at the 500 mb level the GGEM isn't bad at all...and why does it have 2 H5 lows next to each other at 120 hrs?

[eduggs]

The GGEM largely misses everyone except NE. But it's still pretty threatening at h5. It's a legitimate near-miss.

I said earlier I expect a final track between the 12z GGEM and 12z UK, and I still believe that. This 0z GGEM run I think is slightly west of the final outcome and close to or a hair stronger.

[Analog96]

  On 12/22/2010 at 5:07 AM, Colin said:

am i wrong? gfs/ggem/ukmet all misses....0/3 so far tonight. i don't think there's any argument.

You used up two posts rather early!

[Isotherm]

  On 12/22/2010 at 5:07 AM, Colin said:

am i wrong? gfs/ggem/ukmet all misses....0/3 so far tonight. i don't think there's any argument.

No argument with that, but you seem to be writing off the event 4-5 days in advance.

[Bluescat1]

The players are on the field, with things slowing down we still have many runs to look at, I would say if 12Z Thursday the OTS trend dosen't reverse then it is time to throw in the towel. Until then put your big boy pants on and enjoy the Holidays.

[Colin]

  On 12/22/2010 at 5:08 AM, Analog96 said:

You used up two posts rather early!

and i'm using my last one now. being post limited really doesn't bother me...i mean i've been right the last 2 storms. it's pointless to get excited about a storm that clearly involves phasing in a la nina...most of the time, it's not going to happen. i'm not disappointed at all as i've expected this, but i wish some others would recognize this and not wishcast.

[SACRUS]

  On 12/22/2010 at 5:06 AM, Isotherm said:

Hmm, where has this happened before. All the models ditch and then we wait for the Euro to seal the deal. Seems like Bill Murray's gorundhog day.

But seriously if the Euro ends up east tonight I wouldn't be too concerned as we're still 4-5+ days out with this potential event. The timing of the nern and sern stream phasing is going to be key here. We've got to get a slow, strong southern wave but also the northern energy needs to dive into the trough quick enough to capture the low before it heads NE off the NC coast.

I know this has been one heck of a couple of weeks. I'd wait till thu night before losing hope, although the current trends are disappointing. I suspect seasonal trends/tendencies may argue for a further east track

[eduggs]

  On 12/22/2010 at 5:03 AM, SACRUS said:

0 for 3 tonight... Amazing frm where we were

Misses are always more likely than hits until short range. I think most super ensemble QPF % predictors were ~10% for the coastal plane seeing greater than .25 liquid as of yesterday.

[jm1220]

  On 12/22/2010 at 5:07 AM, Colin said:

am i wrong? gfs/ggem/ukmet all misses....0/3 so far tonight. i don't think there's any argument.

You have to look at the upper air charts and their trend before you look at the sfc. The GFS definitely trended in the Euro's direction tonight and so did the Nam. And the UKMET always has a few weird runs thrown into any threat for good measure. It's still way too early to make any definitive conclusion one way or the other.